你们经常在新闻上 Population aging is very much in the news
看到关于人口老龄化的问题 as you may have gathered.
这是重大的改革 It is, among other things,
同其他问题一起 part of the great package of reforms
压在了南欧国家 which is being forced upon
以及其他欧洲地区的 the unhappy people of southern Europe
人们身上 and elsewhere in the Eurozone
这是大家努力 as a consequence of trying to contain the costs
控制人口老化 which population aging
以及之前的大量 and previous rather over-generous
为补偿人口老龄化 attempts to compensate
对经济的影响的结果 for it have generated in their economies.
这是一个重要的话题 So it's a matter of great topical interest.
如果你曾经打开电视机 If you ever manage to actually turn on your televisions
看看新闻或是读一读报纸 and look at the news or read a newspaper
我知道你们一些人很少看新闻 which I know some of you are rather averse to doing,
如果你们看过就会发现 then you will see
这几乎占满了整个头版 it is splurged all over the front page.
这是我们当今的一个重大问题 It's very much an issue of the present time.
已经困扰了我们很长时间 It has been engaging us for quite a long time
并将持续困扰我们 and will continue to do so for
很长一段时间 直到未来 quite a long time into the future.
我们必须明白 It's important to realize
这是不可避免的 that it is totally unavoidable.
一定程度上的人口老龄化 Some degree of population aging
是完全无法避免的 is absolutely inevitable.
我们束手无策 There's nothing we can do about it
除非我们把自己炸回石器时代 short of bombing ourselves back into the Stone Age.
人口老龄化是两个趋势的结果 And it is a consequence of two highly desirable trends,
也就是说 that is to say,
很大程度上控制了 the achievement of control over fertility
生育率 把人口出生率 to a very large extent, to bring down birth rates
控制在一个可接受的水平 to a manageable level,
在这样的环境下 我们的孩子们 one where children will be brought up
能够在安全 in conditions of security
物质充足和繁荣的环境中成长 and material comfort and prosperity.
同时非常令人满意的是 Also very desirable is the effect of control
对于死亡率控制的成果 to some extent of mortality.
我们还没有完全消除 We haven't quite abolished it yet,
但是死亡率现在已经达到 but mortality is now well into the future
未来的水平了 as far as you are all concerned.
如今的新生婴儿有97% Babies born today have a 97 percent chance
都能活到65岁 of surviving to age 65.
同时 如今的新生婴儿 Also, babies born today may well have a cohort life
的寿命根据预测 expectation only a few years short of 100
也与百岁相差无几 according to these projections.
百岁老人在未来 Centenarians are going to be commonplace
会随处可见 除非出现什么无法预料的事 in the future unless something quite unexpected
影响死亡率 and disagreeable happens to the risks of mortality.
所以我们希望这两件好事 So two very good things which we hope
能够伴随接下去的人类历史 we will keep for the rest of the history of humanity
但是它们也有后果 也有代价 but they have the consequence, the payoff,
那就是无法避免的人口老龄化 of population aging and that is unavoidable.
我们很有必要在最开始就知道 It's important to realize though that to begin with
人口老龄化是很有益处的 population aging is highly beneficial.
如果我们研究的是一个简单社会 If you are talking about a simple society
15岁以下的人口比例很高 with a very high proportion of population
也就是仍在接受抚养的孩子很多 aged under age 15, dependent children,
这种情况仍出现在非洲一些雨林地带 as is the case still in some parts of tropical Africa
而且一直到现在 and was the case until quite recently
还广泛分布在世界的其他角落 very widely throughout the world,
因此人口老龄化 then of course population aging,
会减少儿童的比例 which reduces the proportion of dependent children
增加成年人的比例 and increases the proportion of adults,
这是非常有益处的 is very beneficial.
显然在人口转型的早期阶段 Well, what happens is of course in the early stages
婴儿的数量 of demographic transition the number of babies
会转向适度 becomes more modest.
老年人的数量不会膨胀 The number of old people does not expand
因为他们是60 70或80年前出生的 because they of course were born 60, 70, 80 years ago
因为他们的数量还不多 and therefore their numbers are still quite small.
所以在几十年内 So for a while, for some decades,
我们就会看到人口上的好处 we have this demographic bonus,
人口多集中于 this concentration of population
工龄阶段 也就是大约 in the nominal working ages between say 15 and 60
15到60岁之间 or thereabouts which,
如果经济运行得当 if there are institutions appropriate in the economy,
就能够让生活水平 enable a very considerable improvement
有显著的改善 in living standards to be generated
因为劳动力相比其他的人口构成 because the workforce becomes relatively high
占了多数 compared with the rest of the population.
这就是那些正在发展工业的发展中国家 That is what the industrializing and developing nations
比如说亚洲一些国家正在经历的情况 of Asia are in the middle of at the moment.
许多计算表明 And many calculations suggest that
这些国家在过去 perhaps a third of their prosperity increase
几十年间的发展有三分之一 over the last few decades has been
是因为人口构成带来的好处 due to this demographic bonus.
但是没过多久 他们就要付出代价 In due course it has to be paid for.
我们已经在19世纪末 20世纪时 We've enjoyed our demographic bonus of a much more
经历过比较和缓的人口福利 modest kind in the late 19th and 20th centuries.
如今我们正在21世纪进行偿还 We are paying for it now in the 21st century
因为我们出现了人口老龄化 with population aging.
亚洲国家将会在下个世纪偿还 They will pay for it in turn in the coming decades.
但是眼下他们还能够享受它带来的好处 But for the moment they can as it were enjoy it
能够带给他们繁荣 and it contributes to their prosperity.
你们只能这样做 You can only do so of course,
但是很重要的一点 就是现在的社会机构 it's important to add, if the institutions are present
是否能够让所有的劳动力都被雇佣 to enable the workforce to be employed.
这意味着稳定的政府 法治 This means stable government, the rule of law,
可强制执行的合同 enforceable contracts,
可用的基础设施 道路等等 workable infrastructure, roads
南苏丹只有58英里的铁路 South Sudan has 58 miles of metal road,
这不是享受人口红利的 not a very helpful precursor
好兆头 for enjoying a demographic bonus.
还要有职业道德 所有一切都要准备好 A work ethic all these things have to be in place
才能迎接工作人口的膨胀 before this enlargement of the working age population
这样才能够顺利地 can be usefully diverted to
带来一个国家的繁荣 increasing national prosperity.
不然就会变成负面的影响 Otherwise it will be turned to disaffected,
人们失业 然后变成一群不满的暴力青年 unemployed and possible violent young men.
我们还要意识到 这种人口 Also it's important to realize that population again
构成并不会永远持续下去 doesn't go on forever.
如果你暂且忽略了死亡率 If you ignore the death rate for the time being,
如果出生率一直维持在较低水平 if birth rates stabilize at some low level,
低于更替率 below replacement or whatever it might be,
人口老龄化并不会一直 population aging does not go on getting worse
持续恶化下去 and worse and worse.
你也许会从之前的讨论中 You'll recall perhaps from previous discussions
会想到这些问题 最终 of these matters that eventually
人口年龄构成会稳定下来 the population age structure will stabilize,
完全由现在的 determined entirely by
出生和死亡率决定 the current levels of birth and death.
这就是所有决定未来 That's all that determines the age structure
人口年龄构成的因素 in the long run.
所以如果出生和死亡率保持稳定 So if birth and death rates remain constant
年轻人就和以前 the youth are quite different from
很不一样了 what they were in the past.
人口老龄化会持续 Population aging will proceed
直到一个新的年龄结构稳定下来 until the new age structures become stable
然后只要出生率和死亡率保持稳定 and then it will remain constant for as long as
它也会一直保持下去 the birth and death rates remain constant.
不一定会变得越来越差 It doesn't always get worse and worse.
但是也不会结束 It does come to an end.
这只是一个提醒 This is just a reminder
他们早在20世纪30年代就知道了 they knew about this back in the 1930s.
这是来自人口调查委员会的 This is a diagram from the
一张图表 population investigation committee
发表了1936年的一个人口调查 which published population studies back in 1936
给大家展示了他们当时认为 just to show what they thought
2055年可能会发生的情况 might be happening up to 2055,
这是一个非常冒险的长远的预测 a very adventurously long-range projection
这些红色的部分显示了 here showing the change in the proportion
年轻人的比例变化 of young people in red,
白色表示工龄人 the change in proportion of people
比例的变化 who are working age in white
黑色表示老年人比例 and the proportion of the elderly in black.
这是一个非常悲观的预测 A very pessimistic projection
但是他们已经注意到了这个问题 but they were aware of it even if then
尽管后来主要关心的低出生率问题 the primary concern in relation to low birth rates
是与人口减少相关的 related to population decline
而不是人口老龄化 这一点在后来才被提出 and not population aging, of which more later.
如果你看看之前的一些图表 If you wanted to go back to previous patterns,
如果我们要消除人口老龄化 if you wanted to abolish population aging
因为你觉得这太繁重 because you thought it was too onerous,
太困难 代价太高 too difficult, too expensive,
那么你就必须要回到 then this is the kind of age structure
这一种年龄结构 you would have to go back to.
这大约是1700年的人口年龄构成 This is the population age structure at about 1700.
那时候是在人口转型之前 At that time before the demographic transition
人口老龄化根本不是问题 population aging wasn't a problem.
但是有少儿抚养比例的问题了 There was a certain element of youth dependency.
这里我们可以看到15岁以下 Here we have the proportion of persons
人口占35% aged under 15 is about 35 percent.
65岁人口 The proportion of people aged over 65
占5% is about 5 percent.
所以没有人口老龄化问题 So no population aging,
少儿抚养比例较大 但是那是有条件的 some youth dependency but that is bought at a cost,
当时的期望寿命只有37岁 an expectation of life at birth of 37,
婴儿死亡率达到200 an infant mortality rate of about 200,
人口自然增长率为0 and zero growth rate.
所以其实这并不是一个理想的人口年龄构成 So it's not a very desirable population age structure
而且我们还需要付出这么多的代价 to get back to given the cost of being there
比如说降低预期寿命 in terms of low expectation of life at birth
还有可持续的高出生率 and high birth rate which had to be sustained.
人口老龄化有两个过程 There are two processes of population aging,
到现在为止 有两个原因 two causes up till now.
导致人口老龄化最重要的原因 The most important cause of population aging
就是相对较低的出生率 has been relatively low birth rates,
也就是所谓的底层老化 so-called aging from the bottom,
也就是说越来越少的人 that is to say that fewer and fewer individuals
被增加到人口金字塔的底部 are added at the bottom of the population pyramid
所以让底部与中部比起来 and that causes it to become narrower
越来越窄 at the bottom than it is at the middle.
这就是所谓的底部老化 That's so-called aging from the bottom
这通常会导致人口老龄比例增加 and that always makes populations older.
低死亡率也会让人口老龄化增加 Low mortality also can make populations older
因为它让更多的人 because of course it brings more people
寿命变得更长 who are living to longer ages.
但是一开始通常会让儿童的比例增加 But to begin with it always makes populations younger.
我们必须要抓住这个表面上 It's very important to grasp this
矛盾的事实 apparently paradoxical fact
在传统社会中 that in traditional societies
当死亡率下降时 when the death rate starts to go down,
假设死亡率下降 assuming the death rate is going down
几乎包括所有人 generally across the board,
这会让人口更加年轻化 then that makes the population younger
因为显然在传统社会中 because of course in traditional societies
死亡的大多数集中在 the high proportion of deaths are concentrated
年轻人当中 in the younger age groups,
婴儿死亡率大概是每年 with infant mortality at maybe
每1000人中 200 or 300 infant deaths
有200到300人 per thousand live births per year
能够活到15岁 大约是50% and survival to age 15, merely 50 percent.
那么自然 In the nature of things,
即使所有人的死亡率下降 even if mortality is improved at all ages,
最大的后果就是 年轻人当中 the great effect is going to be that the younger ages
会有更多的儿童存活下来 are going to be more children surviving,
越来越多年轻人能够生存下去 more young people surviving,
更多的年轻女性生存下去 more young women will survive
能够结成新的家庭 生育更多的孩子 to complete their families, more births,
这样就能降低死亡率 and consequently reducing the death rate.
让人们寿命更长 Making people live longer
会使得人口更加年轻化 will make the population younger,
而不是老龄化 直到人口达到了 not older, until the population reaches
60岁的期望寿命 an expectation of life of about 60.
一旦你越过了这一门槛 Once you go beyond that threshold then
只有到那个时候 and only then will further improvements
死亡率的下降才会 in mortality actually do
导致你们预期的那样 what you would expect them to do,
也就是说 that is to say,
它会让人口老龄化而不是年轻化 make population older and not younger.
这是一个基本的 Here is the basic process
转型过程 involved with the transition from
这是1750年粗略的 these are crude birth and death rates of about
出生率和死亡率 大约是35 35 back in 1750 to much lower levels
到现在的低得多的水平 at the present time
这种模式是欧洲大部分国家 the sort of patterns which have been followed
人口发展的模式 throughout Europe more or less
现在大部分的发展中国家 and which has been followed by the greater part
也都在陆续地进入这个模式 of the developing world.
在所有的发展中国家中 In all developing countries
死亡率都在不断下降 the death rate has gone down.
显然问题是 有的国家 The problem of course is that in some of them
出生率并没有下降 the birth rate has not gone down
所以我们的人口增长可能有2%-3% so we still have 2 or 3 percent population growth
比如说非洲的某些地区 as you know in some parts of Africa
我们必须到达 and we've got to get to
转型的末期 the final stages of transition,
我们还不知道末期是什么样子 not that we know exactly what the final stages
因为它还不太稳定 are because it is not yet stable.
但是还有一个关于另外一个时期的问题 But that's another question for another time.
举个例子 用两种人口作对比 Just an example of two contrasting populations:
一种是传统型的 经历了 A traditional one here which has experienced
死亡率的降低 some reductions in mortality.
只是1991年的乌干达 This is Uganda in 1991
但是在生育率上并没有降低 but not yet a reduction in fertility,
人口十分年轻化 a very youthful population,
也没有老龄化的迹象 and no trace of population aging there
没有没有控制生育率 because no trace of fertility control.
跟意大利对比起来 And contrast with Italy which could be replicated
同样也是很多发达国家的模型 in many other developed countries,
比如西班牙 葡萄牙 希腊和其他 in Spain, Portugal, Greece and elsewhere
人口老龄化严重的国家 with very severe population aging
人口老龄化来自两种原因 arising from two sorts of processes.
主要是从底部开始的 Primarily again from the bottom as you see,
生育大军比起先前 the birth cohorts being successively smaller
在持续缩小 than the preceding ones,
但是在意大利 西班牙 but also the case of Italy, Spain,
以及其他南欧的国家 and the other countries of Southern Europe
顶部老化也在同时进行 aging from the top at the same time
这一点随着时间的变迁越来越重要了 becoming more and more important
因为预计寿命 as time goes on because the expectation of life
变得越来越有利 at birth is so favorable.
我们现在的情况是 And we're now in a position
死亡率的进一步下降 where further improvements in mortality
主要来自于 are mostly concentrated
老龄人的寿命延长 in the survival of the older ages
因为几乎所有的人 because survival out to age 60
都能活到60岁以上 is nearly perfect anyway.
如果你把界限放到60岁 If you abolished mortality out to age 60
也不会有太大区别 it really wouldn't make much difference.
年龄的结构 The age structure,
所有的动力都在这里 all of the impetus is happening here.
生育率的图案是广为流传的 The patterns of fertility are well-known.
我简单地给大家回顾一下 Just to rehearse them very briefly
因为生育率的图案看起来是比较稳定 because patterns of fertility appear to be stabilizing
变成一种高度分化的图案 to some extent in a highly differentiated pattern.
除非出现剧变 This is generating,
否则这将导致 unless things change very radically,
发达国家人口 very significant differences
人口老龄化图案 in expected patterns of population aging
发生巨大的变化 in the developed world.
总的来说 当然 Generally speaking of course
出生率越接近极限2 the higher the birth rate up to the limit of around 2,
就像你们所看到的 图上这是2 as you can see here's two on the graph
到达2这里 就可以预见一个 up to about 2 gives you a reasonably favorable future
有利的人口老龄化未来 in population aging.
这个老龄化过程不会停下来 It doesn't stop population aging of course
但是它会没那么严重 but it is less severe here in terms of
尤其是在老年人抚养的负担方面 the burden of old age dependency.
在这下面 出生率大约是 Down here where the birth rate's about
在TFR上 大约是1.4 on the TFR is equivalent to about 1.4.
那意味着 That implies much more
将会出现更加严重的人口老龄化 substantial levels of population aging
同时也阻止了大批量的移民 and also bar very high levels of immigration
和人口减少 and population decline as well
这个过程已经开始了 which has already begun
我们可以看到在德国 日本 乌克兰 as you'll recall in Germany, in Japan, in Ukraine,
还有许多欧洲和其他国家 and various other countries in Europe and elsewhere.
有些国家取得了一定进步 Some are doing better:
斯堪的维亚半岛 英国 the new Europe's Scandinavia, the UK.
有些没有那么好 Some are doing less well.
比如远东地区 生育率的进步 Here's the far East with rather little improvement
就比较小 不过依然可见 in fertility yet apparent.
最下面是台湾 And right down at the bottom with Taiwan
是最低的1.0TFR at the lowest with about 1.0 TFR.
我们还必须注意到 出升率是能够上升的 It's important to realize that birth rates can go up.
这是一些选择出来的 Here are some selected ones
接近TFR2.0的 approaching the TFR of 2.0,
接近了更替率 nearly a period of replacement rate.
没有人真的预期到发达国家出生率 No one really expects the birth rates
能够达到2以上 in developed countries will go much above 2.
事实上 我的大多数同事认为 In fact most of my colleagues feel that it probably
是达不到那个数字的 won't even reach that
所以对于这种高出生率的趋势 so they're even a bit disconcerted
有人表示了担忧 by this trend of a somewhat higher birthrate.
一部分原因是它与生育能力恢复有关 Partly it's to do with fertility recuperation;
还有一部分原因和移民有关 partly it's to do with immigration.
预期寿命显然 Expectation of life at birth of course
随着时间在不断增加 has been increasing impressively as time goes on.
一开始是很不稳定的 Rather falteringly to begin with
这是1850年 1860 1870 this 1850, 1860, 1870.
人口在进入城市化的时候 Only very modest improvement as population
只出现了很有限的变化 moved into the risk urban areas,
在两次世界大战期间发生了显著进步 very rapid improvement between the two world wars,
然后稳定地变化成为 and then steady change of a more modest kind
现在的一种比较适应的情况 up to the present time.
有了这种特殊的进步 With particular improvements
就像我刚才所说的 as I mentioned above age
平均寿命近年达到了65岁 65 in recent years.
从1850年到1920年左右 From 1850 to about 1920 or so,
65岁的寿命几乎没有进步 almost no improvement in survival at age 65.
只有非常非常微妙的变化 Very very very modest changes
然后首先出现在女性 and then first of all among females
然后才是男性 and then among males
出现了寿命上的大幅进步 are progressive improvements in survival.
这就是我们今天所担心所在 This is where all the action is these days
因为65岁人口的 given that mortality really
死亡率确实非常适度 is very modest indeed after age 65.
这种情况持续地增加 And this keeps on going up and up and up.
我们不知道限度在哪里 And we don't yet know what the limit's going to be.
这些是最近的预测 These are the latest projections
关于英国的预期寿命 of expectation of life at birth for the UK,
从1985年到2010年的确切数据 the actual figures from 1985 up to 2010,
以及2010年开始后的预测数据 projected figures from 2010 onwards.
这是发达国家的典型 This is fairly typical of developed countries.
你们可以看到 图案 And as you can see the pattern
在男女上是不同的 is always different between males and females,
代表女性的是红色和橙色 with females in red and orange
寿命更加长一些 experiencing more favorable survival;
男性是深蓝色和淡蓝色 the males in dark blue and pale blue.
这些淡色 The pale colors,
橙色和低下的蓝色 the orange and the blue at the bottom,
就是一段时间的预期寿命 are period expectation of life at birth.
这是你们所知道的 And this is, as you know,
关于预期寿命的 simply the calculation
计算方法 of the expectation of life at birth
假设一个人经历过 which you would get if a person experienced
现在的分年龄段的死亡率分布 the current age-specific mortality rates
取特定的一年来研究 of the particular calendar year in question.
如果你假设 If you imagined for example that
有一个人正在这个年龄段 someone is living through
死亡率分布中生活 the age-specific mortality rates
比如现在的英国 which are obtaining in England and Wales
和威尔士的人 at the present time,
这就是这一时期的计算方法 that's what this period calculation is.
如果你建立假设 If however you build in assumptions
关于未来在寿命上的进步 about future improvements in survival,
寿命每年平均在 survival improvement by about 2 percent per year
死亡率表上前进2% in the life table,
然后你就能建立一个预期的大量的生命统计表 then you can create a projected cohort life table.
那时候预期寿命会是多少呢? What would be the expectation of life at birth?
生在特定一年的孩子 Of children born in a particular year
他们会不会经历分年龄的死亡率 were they to experience age-specific mortality rates
增加 比如每年2% improving at say 2 percent per year
就像前几十年一样呢? as they have been over the last few decades?
如果你那么做了 就会得到这样的后果 If you do that, this is what you get.
如果2010年出生的婴儿 If you take babies born about 2010
能按照预测的寿命 according to the projected cohort expectation of life
也就是这两条代表女性 which are these two lines here for females
男性你已经有一个数据 and for males then you already have a figure
大约94女性 of about 94 for females
预计80到90的男性 and about 80 or about 90 for males projected
能够活到2035年 这并不遥远 about to 2035 which is not that far in the future,
大约有97%的女性 和94%的男性 to about 97 for females and about 94 for males.
所以已经很接近 So really approaching the possibility
正常的婴儿预期寿命了 of a normal expectation of life at birth for babies
现在已经接近100了 born around now very close to a hundred.
这不一定能真的实现 This may not come to pass.
只是一个预测 预测通常都是错的 It's a projection and projections are always wrong.
但是又不会错的太离谱 But nonetheless they may not be very wrong
这给我们带来了 and this opens up all sorts of
多种非常有趣的可能性 really interesting possibilities
比如说从顶部开始的老龄化 for aging at the top
来自老龄人的死亡率降低 from reduction of mortality at older ages
因此我们要关注照顾老龄人的问题 and therefore for the question of old-age care.
而且在那些年 Very much dependent of course
生命很大程度上取决于 on the extent to which these additional years of life
那些延长的生命是不是 are going to be active years of life
能够让人工作更多年 where people continue to work older
工作时间随着寿命变成而延长 and older as they live longer and longer,
抑或是他们随着寿命延长 or alternatively if they're going to be confined
越来越多人 drooling in wheelchairs for a high proportion
要坐在轮椅里面度过余生 of this expectation of life increase.
必须是前者 不能是后者 It's got to be the former, not the latter.
这只是一个历史上的顺序 Is it just an historical sequence
显示了图像的变化 to show the sort of pattern change
许多欧洲国家已经经历过了 which we've experienced in many European countries,
尤其是那些在过去100多年里 particularly those with low birth rates
出生率很低的国家 over the last hundred years or so?
这是奥地利从1869年 This is Austria going from 1869 to
到1934年的图像 these three--to 1934.
这是传统的 This is the traditional kind of
圣诞树型年龄结构 Christmas tree age structure,
也是在人口大转型之前 before much has happened in the demographic transition.
这是1869年 这是1910年 This is 1869. This is 1910.
到1934年苗头已经开始出现了 By 1934 things have started to happen.
首先 我们遭受了破坏 First of all, there's been damage.
欧洲国家的年龄结构 The age structures of European countries
在20世纪时受到了巨大的破坏 in the twentieth century are all terribly damaged
因为战争和大萧条 少有幸免 with very few exceptions by warfare and by depression.
你可以看到1934年 You can see here the bite taken out of
男性的年龄结构就像被咬了一口 the male age structure in 1934
由于1914年到1918年第一次世界大战 arising from military deaths in the First World War
导致的军事上的死亡 from 1914 to 1918,
而另外一边确实减少 并不平行 not paralleled by a reduction on the other side.
这是由于第一次 These are the dearth
世界大战引起的 of birth reduction in the birth rate
出升率下降 occasioned by the First World War,
从1914到1918 1914 to 1918,
这些人在1934年已经18岁了 these being now about age 18 in 1934.
出生率在一战过后 And here is the reduction in the birth rate
也一直在减少 after the First World War
造成了底部的老龄化 causing aging from the bottom in the manner
就像我早些时候形容的那样 that I described earlier on.
这是20世纪中期 This is the middle of the twentieth century.
到1951年 我们经受了更大的打击 By 1951 we've experienced more damage.
这是一战的 Here are the military casualties
死亡人数 of the First World War.
这是一战期间的出生情况 Here is the birth dearth of the First World War.
这是二战期间的出生率 Here is the birth dearth of the Second World War.
这是生育率的进一步降低 And here is further reduction in fertility
导致更严重的底层老化 causing more aging from the bottom.
然后我们经历了部分逆转 Then we have a partial reversal.
到1971年出现了婴儿潮 By 1971 we have the baby boom, the baby boom,
仅此一次的出生率短暂增加 this once for all transient increase in the birth rate
是因为1950年代 rising partly out of
兴起的结婚热潮 the greater popularity of marriage
于1970年代结束 which began in the 1950s, ended in the 1970s.
有一个事件是无法再重复的 One event, quite impossible to repeat I think,
但是造成了这一个凸起 but creating this bulge
进一步扰乱了我们的人口年龄组成 further disruption in the population age structure.
这个凸起的作用就是 What this bulge does is to
不断地在年龄建构中前进 work up through the age structure
不断的在它所到之处制造麻烦 causing problems wherever it arises.
这里的问题是妇产科医院压力 Problems here for maternity hospitals
以及小学人数过多 and for overcrowded primary schools.
然后它继续上升 给年轻人 Then it moves up causing problems
就业带来问题 for youth unemployment.
加入经济能够足够快地发展 It could be an advantage if the economy
以便吸纳这些新增的 could expand fast enough
劳动力的话 这应该是件好事 to absorb the extra workforce
但是难就难在 这一个凸起实在太大了 but difficult because the bulge is so big.
你可以把这比喻成 One might liken this in terms of shape
一条肥蟒蛇吞噬山羊的形状 to a fat python swallowing a goat.
山羊从这里开始 顺着肠子移动 Here's the goat here, moving up the gut
随着时间的变化移动 as it were as it ages
然后造成了消化困难 and causing difficulties in digestion
正如它所到之处所带来的社会经济问题 as it were of a socioeconomic kind wherever it goes.
这里 山羊在2015年逼近了退休年龄 Here is the goat approaching retirement age in 2015,
开始造成了2030年的 starting to provoke an accelerated form
人口老龄化加速 of population aging and here it is in 2030,
在退休年龄就已经确定下来了 well established in retirement age,
加上那些 adding to the reversal of the ratio
还处于工龄或是 of people of productive age
育龄人群却已经退休的 to people of consuming age who are retired.
最终 就像所有吞噬了山羊的蟒蛇一样 And eventually of course like all goats in pythons
山羊通过排泄系统消失 it passes out of the system,
人们通过了天国之门 it passes the pearly gates,
然后我们在2050年 and we have a more stable
会达到一个更加稳定的年龄构成 age structure in 2050,
显示了一个从1890年的圣诞树 showing a transition from a Christmas tree
到2050年的棺材形状的转型 of 1890 to a kind of coffin shape of 2050,
这已经比较精确了 因为这部分人口 rather appropriate because this population
当然也有减少的趋势 is of course also declining.
这是一个低生育率国家的经典图形 That's a typical pattern of a low fertility country
比如奥地利 TFR是1.5 in like Austria where TFRs are 1.5,
不像西北欧 not like northwest Europe.
这是另外一种发展 This is a different kind of evolution
这是同样一种发展 well it's the same kind of evolution,
但是没有那么戏剧化 but one which is less dramatic.
这是2006年的英国 Here's the U.K. in 2006 still sitting
依然在经历人口红利 in the middle of a sort of demographic bonus.
这个来自婴儿潮的凸起 And this bulge here from the baby boom
2006年还处于工作年龄 is still in the working ages
或是更老一些的工作年龄 although the older working ages in 2006.
但是没过多久 它就会到达退休年龄 In due course it'll pass up to retirement age
然后好处就会变成坏处 of course and reverse the advantage.
这是2056年的情况 可能没有奥地利那么坏 Here it is in 2056 not quite as bad as the Austrian
一个原因是生育率 one partly because the fertility rate is here
预计会比奥地利高 assumed to continue higher than in Austria
另一个原因是移民 partly because of migration
也就是造成了21世纪中期 which helps to contribute this bulge here
这个凸起的原因 in these middle ages.
所以并不是所有图形都是一样的 So not all patterns are the same.
这里有一个比较极端的例子 Here's a severe case.
这是日本的 This is an extreme example
人口老龄化图形 of population aging in Japan.
出生率非常低 大约是1.35TFR Very low birth rate, about 1.35 TFR.
预计寿命很高 Very high expectation of life,
大约是世界上最高的水平 the highest in the world of any national population,
这两者都让日本的人口 both conspiring to make the Japanese population
从这里的2000 evolve from here which is 2000,
当时情况还比较乐观 still quite favorable,
这里依然还享受着人口红利 still having the demographic bonus here,
发展到这里 红利已经变成了义务 to here where the bonus has turned into the onus
于是就出现了不太理想的年龄结构 and you have a very unfavorable age structure.
这显然是一种典型的 This of course is a typically
悲观的日本预测 pessimistic Japanese projection.
日本人的预测始终假设 The Japanese projections invariably assume
TFR将会保持不变 the TFR will remain fixed and concrete
大约会保持在1.35左右 at about 1.35 for the foreseeable
即使在无法预见的未来也差不多 and even unforeseeable future.
我认为这是非常不现实的 I think it's very unrealistic.
虽然如此 这是悲观的见解 Nonetheless, that's the pessimistic outlook.
顺带一提 不要被这种观点愚弄了 By the way, don't be fooled by this.
并没有任何关注到 There isn't a particular concentration
百岁老人的情况 of individuals aged 100.
最顶层的这一类 The top age category of all these periods
是开放的 所以整个人口中 is an open ended one so the whole population
100岁以上的人 aged 100 and above,
不是五年一个 not a 5 year one,
而是15年或是20年一个 it's a 15 or even 20 year one.
这就是为什么会出现如此不实际的状况 That's why it sticks out in this unrealistic fashion.
这不是真实的 是累积的 It's not real, it's cumulative.
这是一种可能出现的更糟糕的情况 Here's another possibly even worse case:
那就是朝鲜的人口 Population of Korea.
在1960年代经历了 Very rapid evolution from a traditional
从传统型人口结构 population age structure in 1960
也就是迅速增加 TFR非常高 very rapidly growing, high TFR at that time,
直到近些年 出现了人口红利 through recent years, the demographic bonus again,
这是到2040年的预测 and here it is projected to 2040,
仅仅是提前了28年 just 28 into the future,
显示了这些红利人群渐渐成为了老龄人口 showing the movement of the bonus into old age.
同样也是比较悲观的预测 Again a pessimistic projection
但是朝鲜的TFR更加低 but the TFR in Korea is even lower,
比日本还要低得多 considerably lower, than it is in Japan.
这显然意味着 What this means of course is that
在地理政治学上 出现的邻近竞争国家 in geopolitical terms neighboring rival countries,
就好像有人把中国和印度当做竞争对手 if one can call India and China rivals
我觉得这么说不无道理 (I think in many ways you can),
因为它们都经过了人口的转型 because they've had demographic transition
只不过在不同时间经历人口红利 in different times will experience the bonus
以及之后所带来的义务 and the onus if I can use these terms,
只不过是经历的时间不同 at different periods.
因此 在任何既定的时间 And therefore, at any given point in time,
其中一个将会比另一个更具优势 one will have an advantage over the other.
这是中国和印度在2050年时的预测 Here is China and India projected to 2050
它们的人口年龄构成 with their age structure.
这就像一个金字塔或是金字塔的一边 This is like a pyramid or half pyramid on its side
你只要把它旋转90度 if you could rotate it 90 degrees.
红色部分显示的是中国人口 You see here the Chinese population in red.
比较小的出生人数从这里出现 Smaller birth cohorts coming along here,
但是有一大波人即将进入退休年龄 a peak of people about to move into retirement,
比少儿抚养比例还要多 and worse than the dependency ratio,
已经是比较糟糕了 中国是64 already quite bad, it's 64 in China.
然后你们看到印度 And here you are in India,
少儿抚养比例是蓝色的49 the dependency ratio just 49 in blue
主要的人口 with the majority of the population
都处于工作年龄 in the working ages,
少儿抚养比例比较少 smaller numbers of youth dependents
因为到那个时候 coming along because by that time
预计印度的生育率 it's projected that the Indian birth rate
将会进一步降低 will have fallen even further
比现在水平还要低 than it is at the moment.
大约只是刚刚过更替率而已 It's only just above replacement at the given time.
到现在为止 还没有很多人在老龄阶段 So far not yet very many people in old age
这对经济来说是件好事 so an advantage of an economic kind
如果能够好好利用的话 if it can be exploited in India
印度说不定到2050年 over China by 2050
能够通过这种优势的逆转 which may reverse the advantage
成功地调换现在这两个国家 which those two countries currently have
在世界经济和政治舞台上的地位 on the world economic and political scene.
不需要过多的想象 It doesn't take too much imagination
我们可以看到 随着人口老龄化 to see there are lots of difficulties
会出现许多的问题 arising out of population aging.
我不想要夸大其词 I don't want to exaggerate them.
有无数关于人口老龄化的文章 An awful lot of writing about population aging
正在涌现 让人们忧郁命运 is devoted to doom and gloom
让小报头条上出现经济危机的字眼 and exciting tabloid headlines of economic disaster
我不相信会如此 which I don't believe in
因为这样写忽略了 because these tend to discount the possibility
忽略了人口本身 of any kind of adaptation of the kind
具有的良好的自我调节能力 which human population normally
这些很有可能即将发生 are very good at, but more of that in a moment.
这是伴随人口老龄化 This is a list of the sort of problems
很可能出现的一系列问题 which quite logically follow from population aging.
老年抚养比例 The dependency ratio of the elderly
不断上升 但是由于 goes up and there is a relief
少儿抚养比例的下降而有所缓解 from a lower level of youth dependency
但是这通常被认为是 but it's generally reckoned as a very course rule
一种常规的方法 因为赡养一位老年人 of thumb that an elderly dependent
比抚养一名儿童要贵 is about three times as expensive
三倍以上 as a youth dependent.
这是一个非常值得争议的估计 This is a controversial estimate
但是这也是经常用的方法 but it's a very frequently used rule of thumb.
所以我们没有完善的补偿机制 So there isn't a perfect compensation.
因此少儿抚养的减少 The reduction of youth dependency
无法补偿赡养老年人 doesn't compensate for the increase
压力的增加 of old dependency for this reason.
通常人们认为这将会影响经济 This is generally thought to affect the economy
因为人口的生产力部分 because the productive part of the population
也就是那些工作并生产财富 which is in work generating money
缴纳税金的人们已经逐渐减少 and paying taxes is relatively diminishing
而那些需要花钱 compared to that part of the population
接受社会福利 which is spending money and receiving welfare
的人口却逐渐增多 to various different degrees.
与这些情况同时进行的 That goes hand in hand
是劳动力的短缺 with relative labor shortage,
不管是绝对的短缺还是相对短缺 either an absolute one or a relative one,
越来越多的老人需要被安顿 increased need for care arrangements for the elderly,
需要充足的养老金 adequacy of pension provisions,
尤其是我们会看到 particularly as we'll see if they are based on
尤其是那些即现即付的系统 a pay as you go system
财富会从劳动人民的口袋中 where money is taken out of the workers
被放进领取养老金人们的口袋中 and put into the pockets of pensioners,
如果劳动人口数量相对于 if the number of workers is going down
领取养老金的人口不断下降 relative to the number of pensioners
显然这种即现即付的制度 then of course pension systems on a pay
将会面临破产 as you go system start to become insolvent.
所以要么就 Either they've got to increase
增加劳动力的贡献 the contribution of workers,
要么降低养老金的发放标准 或是双管齐下 reduce the pension entitlement of pensioners, or both.
这些东西没有一样是 Neither of these things are ever popular
常用的 我们稍后会看到 as we will see in a little while.
简单地给你们再讲一讲无抚养比例 Just a brief reminder of the dependency ratios,
它们是如何累积起来的 how they are calculated,
也许这个复习不太必要 perhaps an unnecessary reminder.
总抚养率仅仅是 The total dependency ratio is merely
理论上到达抚养年龄的人口 the population of notionally dependent age,
0-14岁和65岁以上人口 naught to 14 and 65
除以理论上的工龄人口 and over divided by the population
15到54岁之间的人口数 of notionally working age 15 to 54,
再乘以100 times a hundred.
这是传统的分界 These are traditional boundaries
现在已经不再现实了 which are no longer realistic.
许多人直到20岁 Many people don't enter the work force
才开始参与社会劳动 until their twenties.
最近 很多人不到60岁就已经退休 Until recently many have retired before age 60.
比如说Eurostat用20-59岁 The Eurostat for example uses the boundaries 20 to 59
作为工龄人口的界限 as working age population.
同时 你们也知道 这些只是理论上的 Also, you know, these are nominal.
这是一个人口学的计算 This is a demographic calculation.
不是经济学的计算 It's not an economic one.
我们必须记住 One has to remember that
如果你要进行经济学计算 if you're making an economic calculation
那么有很多理论工龄人口 that quite a lot of people of nominal working age
都没有在工作 are not working.
有许多人都提前退休了 Quite a lot of them are retired.
而且在某种程度上 很多人 And also to some extent, quite a lot of people
到了退休年龄却还在工作 of nominal retirement age aren't retired,
比如说我 like me for example.
更有意思的是 More interesting I think,
底层的人数 is the number at the bottom here,
潜在的老年抚养比例 the aged potential support ratio.
这些是来自也门 These are very different
英国2025年和意大利2050年的 age structures from Yemen,
各不相同的年龄构成图 UK, Italy in 2025, Italy in 2050.
也门在抚养比率上的问题显然 The problem of dependency in Yemen of course
在于少儿抚养比率 is youth dependency
因为几乎有一半的人口 because almost half the population
都在15岁以下 is aged under age 15.
意大利的问题在于 The problem in Italy
老年抚养比率 is an elderly population dependency
因为到2025年 大约有26%的老龄人口 because in 2025 reckoned at 26 percent,
到2050年大约有36%的老龄人口 by 2050 projected to be 36 percent.
我认为更直观的 I think the more intuitively useful way
研究抚养比率的方法 of looking at dependency is to
就是把抚养比率倒过来看 reverse the dependency ratio,
把它翻转过来 turn it upside down,
看看每一个接受养老金的人中 and look at the number of people
有多少工龄人口 of nominal working age there are per pensioner.
这样你就能得到像也门一样的数据 And so you get a figure like this in Yemen.
这是个天文数字 It's astronomical:
每一个接受养老金的人有21个工作人口 21 people of nominal working age for every pensioner.
天知道到底有多少人在工作 God knows how many are working
天知道有多少人能拿到养老金 and God knows how many are getting a pension.
但那是另一回事 That's a different matter.
在英国 这一数字现在是4 In UK it's about 4 at the present time.
一个领养老金的人 4 people of nominal working age
比4个在理论工龄上的人 for every person of nominal pensionable age.
这在当今许多欧洲国家是一样的 And that's par for the course for European countries
都在不断下降 at the present time, going down,
在意大利2025年是2.5 in the case of Italy 2.5 by 2025
到2050年是1.4 to 1.4 by 2050.
这就是一个对于低出生率国家老龄化问题 So that's an example of the projected severity
估计过于严重的例子 of population aging in a low fertility country.
我已经讲过这个了 I've dealt with that already.
那么对于这些潜在的抚养比率会发生什么呢? What's going to happen to this potential support ratio?
显然这取决于 Well, of course it depends on
未来的生育率 the future pattern of fertility,
死亡率和人口迁移 mortality and migration.
这里有一些政府行动部门 Here are some projections made by
作出的预测 the government actions department
他们是根据一些比较老的人口参数 based upon slightly old demographic parameters,
比如1998年的数据 而并不是最新的 those of 1998 and not current.
但依然能够一针见血 But it illustrates the points.
比较宽的这条黑线是中心投影 The fat black line is their central projection
表示潜在的抚养率正在下降 of the potential support ratio going down
从我刚才讲过的 刚刚过4 from just over 4 which I mentioned earlier on
下降到2.5左右的稳定的水平 down to a stable level of about 2.5,
大约2.5 approximately 2.5.
注意到我之前所说的 人口老龄化 Notice as I sad before that the population aging
不会无止境地持续下去 doesn't go on forever.
它会持续40到50年 It goes on for about 40 or 50 years
然后就会稳定下来 其他条件不变 and then will stabilize, other things being equal.
黑线两侧这些带颜色的线 These colored lines on each side of the fat black line
代表了将要发生的事情 indicate what will happen
也是在运用了政府行动部门 given the application of the
作出的预测之后 government actions department's assumptions
得到的关于不同水平的 about different levels of
生育率 人口迁移和死亡率 fertility, migration, and mortality.
这里的红色表示了高生育率 This one here in red is high fertility
还有高人口迁移 and high migration for example,
使得人口抚养比例得以优化 improving the support ratio
因为显然这意味着 because of course it means that
工龄人口的增加 there are more people of working age.
这里是低出生率和低人口迁移 Here is low fertility and low migration,
这种抚养比率就没那么理想 a rather less favorable support ratio
理由就恰好相反 arising for the reverse reasons.
自然地不同水平的生育率 Naturally different levels of fertility
会产生不同水平的未来抚养比率 generate different levels of future support ratio.
这两条浅蓝色显示了 These two bars here show the support ratio
2000年的抚养比率 in the year 2000 in pale blue;
深褐紫色的部分显示了2050年 the support ratio in the year 2050
英国 法国 in dark maroon color for UK, France,
德国 西班牙和意大利的抚养比率 Germany, Spain and Italy.
这些数据没有那么新 These data aren't quite up to date
但它能够让我们对未来的变化有个大致的了解 but they give some basic picture of the change
也就是不同的出生率 which is likely as a consequence
给这些国家带来的 of the different birth rates
不同的后果 in these different countries.
主要是因为不同的出生率 Primarily with these different birth rates
虽然没过多久 although in due course of course
随着出生率稳定下来 存活率不断上升 as birth rates stabilize improvements in survival
这一点就会变得越来越重要 become more and more important.
你们可以看到有例外 As you can see the exception
他们都是从4开始的 which they all start off at about 4
根据这个预测 英国会下降到2.6 on this projection, going down to about 2.6 in the UK,
法国下降到2.1 2.1 in the case of France,
德国到2 2 in Germany,
西班牙1.5 意大利1.45 1.5 in Spain, and 1.45 in Italy.
这些都不是最新的数据 These aren't quite current anymore
但是你们可以想象到 but they give you a picture of the sort of level
那种不同的水平 of difference which one can expect.
而且总的来说 低出生率 And generally speaking lower birth rates
会带来更加严重的人口老龄化 bring more severe aging.
这个图表显示了 Here is a graph showing
2060年预测的抚养比率 the projected support ratio in 2060
根据联合国的数据显示 according to the United Nations
和2010年的总生育率相比 compared with a total fertility rate in 2010,
也就是现在的总生育率 the present time.
你们可以看到 总的来说 As you see, generally speaking
TFR越高 the higher the TFR
抚养比率就越理想 the more favorable the support ratio.
这是比利时 荷兰 美国 Here's Belgium, Netherlands, USA,
挪威 法国 英国 Norway, France, UK.
下面我们有韩国 日本 Down here we've got South Korea, Japan,
意大利 波兰 德国 Italy, Poland, Germany,
都是一些老生常谈 the usual suspects in fact.
我们可以忽略这个 We can forget that.
人口老龄化能否彻底解决? Can we solve population aging?
答案很简单 就是不能 The brief answer is no, we can't,
我们一开始就解释了原因 for reasons expressed right at the beginning.
只有回到 Only by going back to a
传统的人口年龄构成 traditional population age structure
也就是要回到非常不理想的 involving quite disagreeable levels of
死亡率和生育率 我们才能解决这个问题 mortality and fertility can we solve population aging.
这不是我们想要的 That would not be desirable.
我们能够控制它 我们可以缓解它 We can manage it. We can moderate it.
但我们无法解决这个问题 We can't solve it.
我认为我们应该 I think it's quite important
牢牢记住这一点 to keep that firmly in mind.
第一 关于移民 First of all, immigration.
显然移民确实 It's clear that migration does
能够对人口老龄化起到缓和作用 moderate population aging
只要大多数的移民 as long as most migrants
都在向那些 are moving into that part of the population
工龄人口多的地方迁移 which is of working age.
典型地来说 Typically speaking,
这对于大多数接受移民的国家来说都适用 this is correct in most countries receiving migrants.
大多数的移民平均年龄 Most migrants are on average aged
都在35岁或是30岁左右 about 35 or so, or 30.
他们比迁移地的人口 They are younger than the average age
平均年龄要年轻 of the population into which they are moving.
只有很少几个例外 There are a few exceptions.
比如说退休人口 The movement of retired people
从德国迁移到英格兰 from Germany and England
或是西班牙的??? into the Costa Geriatrica in Spain
这当然会让人口变老 of course makes that population older.
但这种情况是罕见的 不是寻常的 But that's an unusual kind of circumstance, not normal.
所以人口迁移能够缓解人口老龄化 So migration can moderate population aging.
它能解决这个问题吗? Can it solve it?
不幸的是 它不能 Well, unfortunately it can't
尽管在2000年 despite some excitement generated
联合国一个非常著名的出版物 by a very famous United Nations publication in 2000
让这个世界都激动起来 那是一个关于欧洲 which set the world ablaze with stories of Europe
每年需要1400万新移民 needing 14 million new migrants a year
以缓解人口老龄化的故事 in order to save itself from population aging.
这个问题在于 移民本身也会变老 The problem is of course that migrants themselves age.
它所能做的是轻易地 What it can do is to without too much difficulty
阻止人口的减少 is to stop population declining.
这是Eurostat的预测 Here are projections by Eurostat
显示有许多不同的欧洲国家 showing various different European countries.
它们的人口在2008年 Their population change
到2055年间的变化 between 2008 and 2055,
跨越了大约半个世纪 over half a century or so,
有移民和没有移民影响的情况 with migration and without migration.
大家需要再次记住 这些只是预测 Again please remember these are only projections.
但是它们也暗示了如果 But these are the implications of what would happen
这些假设变成现实后会出现的后果 if the assumptions turn out to be correct.
这些蓝条是预测中的人口变化 The blue bars are the percent of projected population
在这条线之上就代表增加 change either increase above the line,
在线以下代表减少 还有人口迁移的影响 decrease below the line, with migration
这些暗黑的条是预测中的 The dark bars are the percent projected
人口变化比例 population change,
增加在线上 increase above the line,
减少在线下 除去移民的影响 decrease below the line, without migration.
你们可以看到 算上移民的挪威 As you can see with migration Norway,
英国 瑞典 西班牙 法国 UK, Sweden, Spain, France,
丹麦 芬兰 荷兰 Denmark, Finland, Netherlands,
甚至意大利 都增长了一点点 但不太明显 and even Italy increase somewhat but not very much.
德国无论接受多少移民 Germany declines no matter
似乎人口都在减少 how much migration you get, it seems.
德国即使有了移民人口也在减少 Germany will decline even with migration
意大利只是冒了一点点尖 and Italy's on the cusp.
没有移民 挪威人口增长了 Without migration Norway increases,
英国增长了一点点 UK increases a bit,
瑞典不太多 法国增长了 Sweden not much, France increases.
剩下的其他国家都减少了 因为它们的出生率 All the others decline because their birth rates
预计都会保持较低水平 are assumed to remain low.
因此 移民能以一种合适的程度 And so migration can stop population decline
控制人口的减少 at an appropriate level.
显然这意味着 Of course it does mean that
外来的人口和当地的人口 the population coming in is different than
是不一样的 the population that is there
最终将会取代 and it will mean eventually replacing that population
那里的人口 in the very long run
如果当地的出生率不增长的话 if the birth rate doesn't increase.
但那又是另一码事了 But that's a different story.
这就是为什么移民 This is the reason why migration
会对人口老龄化有帮助 typically helps to moderate population aging.
这些空心的条是2008年 These hollow bars are the age structure
对欧洲的移民的年龄结构 of migrants into Europe around about 2008.
这是整个欧洲人口的 This is the population age structure
年龄结构 of the overall EU population.
要注意的是这些都是百分比 Please note these are percentages.
并不是绝对的数字 These are not absolute numbers.
进入欧洲的移民数量并不多 The number of migrants coming into Europe
相比起欧洲的 is not colossal compared to the population of
工龄人口来说 working age in Europe.
这只是一个百分比分配 This is just the percentage distribution
显示移民总体来说 showing the way in which migration
会给人口老龄化 generally speaking has this favorable effect
带来正面的影响 upon population aging.
但是正如我提到的 移民也会变老 But, as I mentioned, migrants age.
你们可以看到 这种老龄化 You can see this aging happening
在2001年时 发生在英国的 in the Indian population age structure here in 2001
印度人口年龄结构中 in the UK.
还没有显现在巴基斯坦人口中 Not yet in the Pakistani population
因为他们的生育率还比较高 where the birth rate remains high.
前内政大臣说 The previous Home Secretary said
他认为移民没有更高的限制 that he saw no further limits to immigration
因为这是一个移民 because this is a time when migration
受到鼓励的时期 is being encouraged.
这是根据政府行动部门 This is the effect based on some calculations
的计算总结出来的 by the government actions department
关于移民对于英国人口的影响 about the effect upon the UK population .
对不起 不同移民程度的 Sorry, potential support ratio
不同潜在抚养比率 of migration at different levels.
这是我刚才给你们展示过的 Here is the fat black line
那条粗黑线 I showed you before going down
它从现在的4一直往下降 from 4 at the present time
大约降到2.5 roughly speaking to about 2 and a half.
那是在每年九万五千移民的基础上 That was on the assumption of 95,000 migrants per year.
如果你把这数字乘以10 If you jack that up 10 times
接近每年一百万移民 to a million migrants per year in net terms
那么确实能够增加抚养比例 then indeed you boost the support ratio
提高到5 也不是很多 for a bit up to 5, not much.
但是它还是会无情地下降 It goes down inexorably
开始和原本的预测一样逐渐收缩 and starts converging with the original projection.
即使是每年一百万移民 Even a million migrants a year
也无法解决这个问题 doesn't solve the problem.
这是要把英国的 This is the annual immigration
抚养比率保持在4.1 which you would require to keep
每年所需要的移民数量 the UK population support ratio at 4.1
这个世纪之内这个数字都会在百万以上 in millions for the rest of the century.
你们可以看到 它极易变化 As you see it is highly variable
因为年龄结构一直在波动 because of the fluctuation of the age structure.
到本世纪中期 It averages just over 1 million
平均水平就是每年100万 per year by mid century.
然后将会上升到更高水平 And then it goes to much higher levels
在本世纪末达到 peaking at about 5 million per year
每年五百万的顶峰 at the end of the century
同时还要接受人口膨胀的后果 with very considerable consequences of population size.
红色的线显示了 The red line here show
人口容量变大所带来的后果 the consequence of population size
也就是当移民能够将 at that level of migration
PSR保持在4.1的情况 which will keep the PSR at about 4.1.
你们可以看到 人口会从 As you can see it would take the population
现在的6千3百万增长到 from about 63 million at the present time
本世纪中期的1亿2千万 to about 120 million by mid-century.
在本世纪末会达到3亿6千万 This is 306 million by the end of the century.
你们也可以看到 这一数字是呈指数增长的 And as you can see it's increasing exponentially
真的是非常高的水平 at very high level indeed.
而且它已经几乎要赶超 And it has already almost overtaken the population
美国的人口了 有了那么多人 of the US and would enable us of course
我们当然能够完成 with that many people to do all sorts of things
很多我们自己做不到的事情 we can't do by ourselves.
有了3亿6千万人口 With 306 million people we could
我们自己也可以侵略伊拉克了 invade Iraq by ourselves for example.
但是生活在这样大的人口当中并不一定好 But it might not be very nice to live in a population
因为人口密度已经达到 where the population density was
现在的六倍了 six times the present level.
2000年联合国的出版物 The reduction ad absurdum of this was calculated
已经指出了这个说法的荒唐之处 by the United Nations in that 2000 publication.
他们所计算的是 What they calculated was what would be
要保持韩国的人口抚养比率在4.1 the consequences of migration sufficient
所需要的移民数量 to keep the support ratio in the Republic of Korea
以及将会带来的后果 at the then high level.
答案是我们都要 And the answer would be that we would all have to
收拾行李去韩国 pack our bags and go there
因为大约需要60亿人 because it would take more that 6 billion people
在中世纪的时候迁移去韩国 to move to Korea by mid-century
才能够保证抚养比率 in order to preserve the support ratio
显然这是不可能发生的 and that probably isn't going to happen.
同样的 生育率能否解决人口老龄化问题? Likewise can fertility solve population aging?
同样它只能够缓解它 Once again it can moderate it
就像人口迁移一样 as in the case of immigration
但是无法真正解决它 but it can't solve it.
如果人口更替率 总的生育率 If the replacement, total fertility,
在当今的死亡率下 which I think is about the most
能够达到最高的水平 you could expect given modern levels of mortality,
能够把PSR提高到3 would raise the PSR to about 3.
这并非不乐观 That's not unfavorable.
如果没有移民的话 And without migration there would be
就不会出现人口增长 no population growth
我认为那是一个红利 which I think would be a bonus.
如果你要让PSR保持在4 If you wanted to preserve the PSR of 4
你就必须把TFR增加到3.5 you would have to increase the TFR to 3 and a half.
英格兰和法国和美国的 Ladies in England and France
女士们每人 and the US would have to
需要生育3.5个孩子 have 3 and a half babies each
我认为这并不是 which I think is probably not regarded
理想的状态 as being very desirable.
当然我们每年还是会产生 And of course we would generate
大约2%左右的人口增长 almost 2 percent population growth per year,
和移民的预测差不多 a bit like the migration assumption.
所以哪个选择都行不通 So neither of those options is possible.
在我看来 It seems to me that
在提高生育率上有些方面 there are aspects of the fertility increase
比人口迁移的方面更好控制 that are easier to manage than a migration increase
但是它们两者都无法解决问题 but neither of them will actually solve the problem.
我们无法避免 We can probably avoid that.
我想这一点我早就声明过了 I think I've made these points already.
我很抱歉地说 由于我的职业 I regret to say, given my profession,
人口学本身并不代表一切 that demography in this matter is not everything.
还有很多重要的方面 There are many many other highly important aspects
比如一个国家的社会和经济结构 of the social and economic structure of countries
以及政治 还有人口 and their politics as well as the demography
都会影响人口老龄化 which affects population aging
以及人口老龄化所带来的影响 and the impact of population aging.
这是一个预计的 This is the impact of, an estimate rather,
不同国家对于 of the vulnerability to population aging
人口老龄化问题的脆弱程度 of various different countries estimated
是由来自华盛顿CSI智囊团的 by Jackson and Howe from the CSI think-tank
杰克森和豪尔预测的 in Washington DC,
发表于2003年 as you see published in 2003.
他们研究了 What they did was to look at the
当时的人口状况 demography at the current
和根据预计的出生率和死亡率 and the projected level of population aging
预计出了可能出现的老龄化水平 arising out of assumptions about birth and death rates
我们刚刚其实已经分析过了 as we've dealt with already.
他们还研究了 And then they also looked at
人口的许多其他方面 the various other aspects of population:
老年人的存款水平 the extent to which the elderly had savings,
退休年龄的高低 the extent to which the retirement age was high or low,
以及国家的养老保险计划 the extent to which the solvency
偿付能力的高低 of the country's pension schemes were high or low
养老保险计划需要的 the extent to which the pension scheme's
税收支持有多少 require support from general taxation
比如在意大利这样的国家 as in Italy which of course makes a country
尤其脆弱 正如在欧洲危机中一样 more vulnerable as we've seen in the Eurocrisis.
它们形成了这样的图形 And they created this pattern here which shows
这里显示了英语国家排名靠前 rather gratifyingly the English-speaking world
脆弱度是比较低的 being at the top in low levels of vulnerability
其他的国家分别呈现不同水平 and various other countries at different levels
比较脆弱 but levels below,
这些都是比较危险的区域 these being in the current danger area.
更加有意思的是 当你考虑到 And rather curiously when you take into consideration
退休年龄的时候 these aspects of retirement age,
考虑财政实力 养老保险的形式 of fiscal solvency, of the form of pension,
老年人的 of the extent to which people
存款问题等等 save for old age and so on,
那么你可能会想到一些国家 then countries which you might have thought
会做得比较好 因为它们的人口比较少 would do well because of their demography do badly
比如法国 like France for example.
非常有利的人口状况 Very favorable demography,
非常不利的高薪制度 very unfavorable system of high pay
以及高额的养老金 as you go pension costs.
日本人口状况一般 Japan, which has got very unfavorable demography,
但是比我们想象要好得多 does much better than you would expect
因为它们有很高的储蓄倾向 because of its high propensity to save,
退休年龄较高 还有一些其他的日本文化因素 late retirement and other aspects of Japanese culture
和社会习惯 and social habits.
这当然会导致人们认为 What this leads to of course is the realization
人口老龄化是能够被控制的 that population aging can be managed
只要出生率不要太低 as long as birth rates aren't too disastrously low,
劳动力预期 退休年龄 by all kinds of changes to workforce participation
和生产力进行一些调整就行了 and retirement age and productivity.
但是这个想法是无法实现的 The idea that these will not happen
它太不现实了 seems to be highly unrealistic.
有的人有时候会认为 One sometimes thinks when presented
当看到报纸上报导 with disaster scenarios in the papers
人口老龄化所带来的灾难时 about population aging that that term
这就是认为人类或是政府 It's assumed that no further rational decision making
无法再作出 is possible on the part of the human species
任何进一步的理性决定了 or its individuals or its governments.
就好像一个人应该在 It's as though a person should be driving a car
白日里一条畅通的大路上开车 in broad daylight along a clear road
看到前面有一个巨大的标志显示有危险 and sees in front of them a big sign saying danger,
前方有悬崖 请右转 cliff ahead, turn right.
他不仅没有打方向盘 Instead of taking the steering wheel
没有按照指示右转 and doing the obvious thing which is to turn right
他还一脚油门向前冲 he carries straight on,
一头撞向广告版 然后坠落悬崖 smashes into the billboard and goes over the cliff.
这是一切关于 That's the kind of assumption
人口老龄化的灾难性说辞 on which disaster scenarios
所建立的基础: of population aging are based:
退休年龄不会再增加 there will be no increase in retirement age,
劳动力预期也不会增加 no increase in workforce participation,
劳动生产率不会提高 no increase in labor productivity,
市场劳动力 that no possibility of
也无法再调整 adjustment through market forces,
无法进行理性的决策 rational decision making,
价格制度 然后剩下的一切都会接踵而来 the price mechanism, and all the rest will occur,
当然这些会发生的 which of course it will occur although
只不过有时伴随沉重的代价 sometimes with considerable pain.
在这些可能性当中 最有效的 Of these possibilities the most efficient
就是提高平均退休年龄 one is increasing the average age of retirement.
因为这样做的效果是 Because what that does of course is,
如果人们晚一些停止工作 if people cease working later,
就是在减少方程式中需要抚养的数量 is to reduce the dependent part of the equation
与此同时 and at the same time
增加生产力的数量 increase the productive part of the equation.
所以你会得到一个双重效果 So you get a double effect
我们会看到 退休年龄 and one can see that the retirement age
会对如今的人口抚养比例 has already quite an impressive effect
产生相当明显的效果 upon calculated levels of population dependency.
生产力将会发生重大的变化 Productivity is going to be an important change
如果工人相对变少的话 as well and may well follow naturally
这种情况也会渐渐被弥补 if workers become relatively scarce.
然后自然雇主们和资本家们 Then the rational response by employers
的反应应该是 and capitalists ought to be
提高劳动力的资本比例 to improve the ratio of capital labor,
换句话说就是提高生产率 to increase productivity in other words,
这必然是一件大有裨益的事情 which would be a beneficial thing to happen anyway
因为欧洲的生产率 because Europe has got a rather low productivity
与其他工业国家相比是相当低的 compared to other parts of the industrial modern world.
要补偿人口老龄化所带来的 The increase in productivity required to
问题所需要的生产力提高 compensate for population aging
是非常巨大的 is nonetheless quite high.
目前来看 生产力要增加 At the moment productivity increases
每年2%或是2.5% by something like 2 or 2 and a half percent per year.
欧洲委员会计算 The European commission calculated that
每年生产力的增加 an annual increase of productivity
比这还要多0.6% of an additional 0.6 percent
才能够弥补 would be required to compensate for the cost
人口老龄化带来的问题 of population aging.
这也许看上去是一个小数 That might seem like a small number
但是0.6%和2.5%相比 but it's 0.6 percent compared with say 2.5 percent
在增长的百分比上来说 which in percentage terms of the increase
差异确实是很巨大的 of the total rather, is really rather a lot.
我想我已经讨论过所有这些了 I think I've discussed all this.
如果我们能够增加EU15的劳动力 If we could increase the labor force
采用丹麦的参与率 of the EU 15 by applying Danish participation rates
到整个EU 15地区 to the whole of the EU 15 area,
也就是传统上的欧盟 that's the traditional European Union,
那么你就会在原本的劳动力上 then you would add 32 million people
增加3200万人 to the workforce which is calculated
到2050年可能会出现不足 to be the deficit which is likely to arise by 2050.
当然你只能这样做一次 You can only do that once of course.
你无法得到 You can't get more than
85%以上的参与率 85 percent workforce participation rate.
但是这也展示了另一个 But that shows another approach
缓和老龄化问题的方法 to moderating the effect of aging.
现在 你是否能够让 Now whether you can get
整个欧盟 the whole of the European Union
能否让西班牙南部 阿尔加维 in the south of Spain, in the Algarve,
或甚至是英国的一部分人 or even in parts of the UK,
像丹麦人一样工作 退休 to work like Danes and retire
那又是另外一件事 like Danes is a different matter.
尽管如此 这是假设 Nonetheless that's what would happen
能够做到将会带来的后果 if it were possible.
这就是英国的 This is what happens to
潜在抚养比率在退休年龄提高后 the UK potential support ratio
会出现的变化 with high retirement ages.
这条粗黑线就是我们刚才看过的那条 The fat black line is the one we saw before,
抚养比率从4.1下降到2.5 the support ratio going from 4.1 to 2.5.
如果退休年龄提高到68岁 If retirement is increased to 68
也就是这一条紫色线这里 which is this purple line here
那么PSR刚刚增长过3 then the PSR is improved to just over 3.
但是无法回到4.1 It can't go back to 4.1
但是3已经比2.5好多了 but three is a good deal better than 2.5.
如果退休年龄变成72岁 If retirement is at 72
比现在水平高得多 which is a lot more than at the present time
比当今的退休年龄 it's ten years older
提高了10岁 than the current actual retirement age
那么PSR确实能够保持到4.1 then the PSR indeed remains at 4.1.
那还需要很多努力 That's a long way off.
有些人确实能够工作到72岁 Some people do work to 72
或者更长 但是大多数人不愿如此 and beyond but most people would not want to do so.
这已经超出了 It's no longer beyond the calculus
自愿选择的计算范围了 of conscious choice as it were.
就在最近 瑞典的劳动司长 Just recently the Swedish Labor Minister was cited
说退休年龄应该在不久之后提升到70 as saying that retirement age would have to go to 70
以应对某种程度上的 in due course in order to compensate for
人口老龄化问题 the population aging to some extent.
但是这个幻想 And so what was previously fantasy
是不可能在短时间内实现的 may well not be in due course.
哦对 你们还要记得 Oh, yes, the actual age of retirement at the moment
实际上的退休年龄 is worthwhile keeping in mind.
这些蓝色的条形显示了上世纪中期 These blue bars show the age of retirement
的退休年龄 in the middle of the last decade.
现在比原来高一些了 It's now somewhat higher.
这是55 60 65 和70 This is 55, 60, 65, and 70.
你们可以看到这是墨西哥 朝鲜 You can see this is Mexico, Korea,
爱尔兰 冰岛 日本 新西兰 Ireland, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand,
以色列 和葡萄牙 Israel, and Portugal
它们的实际退休年龄都比较高 have quite high retirement ages in reality.
蓝色的点表示官方的养老金 The blue dot is the official pension
领取年龄 也就是即现即付的国家养老金 entitlement age for the pay as you go state pension.
我们可以看到在一些情况中 And you can see that in some cases
人们比官方规定的退休年龄工作时间更长 people work longer than the official retirement age
尤其是在日本和韩国 还有冰岛 particularly in Japan and Korea, and Iceland.
在其他国家 人们会早些退休 In other cases they still retire early.
这里我们有可能的人员伤亡 And over here we have the potential casualties
官方的退休年龄 where the official retirement age
大约是65岁或是低一些 is about 65 or in some cases lower.
比如在法国就很低 It's lower here is France.
在这张表制的时候法国退休年龄是60 It was 60 at the time this graph was produced.
这里所有的国家都 And all these countries here are
这里的人们都比官方规定的 people here are retiring earlier
退休年龄提早退休 than the official retirement age.
还有这里 希腊 芬兰 And also here this is Greece, Finland,
德国 西班牙 波兰 意大利 Germany, Spain, Poland, Italy,
匈牙利 比利时 Hungary, Belgium,
法国 奥地利 和卢森堡 France, Austria, and Luxemburg.
所以你们知道脆弱从何而来了 So you can see where the vulnerability lies.
我们很有必要简单谈谈养老制度的问题 It's important to have a brief word about pensions.
谈到养老金制度我大多数 I've been speaking mostly so far about pay
讲的都是即现即付的养老金 as you go pensions.
这是通常的养老金系统 This is the normal system of pension
对于那些由国家管理的地区- applying on the continent where the state
只有国家才能够运行 only the state can run pay
即现即付的养老金计划 可以将财富充公 as you go pension schemes--confiscates money,
通过税收来收集钱财 takes money by taxation
在我们这里这叫做国家保险 (in our case it's called national insurance)
把钱从工人们的口袋里掏出来 out of the pockets of workers
通过一些政府机构 and transfers it via bureaucrats
转移到领取养老金的人的口袋中 into the pockets of pensioners.
这是一个非常容易 省钱的管理系统 A very simple, cheap to administer system,
只要年龄机构不变 which is very fine as long as
就能够顺利操作 the age structure isn't changing.
当这些系统被发明出来 When these systems were invented
当然几十年前年龄结构 of course many decades ago the age structure
还是蛮理想的 was quite favorable
因此即现即付制度 and pay as you go pension schemes
能够顺利实现 现在有两个问题 worked just fine. Two problems.
一是这个制度 One is that they are highly vulnerable
在年龄结构受到 to changes in the age structure
人口老龄化影响的时候会变得脆弱不堪 arising out of population aging
原因是显而易见的 for reasons which are entirely obvious.
第二 由于受到政府的控制 Secondly, because the government controls it,
还有很多强大的道德问题 there's a powerful moral hazard
比如说政府在选举时期 in the sense that governments are strongly inclined
就会开始强烈地支持 when it comes election time to start promising
提高养老金的水平 about increasing pensions.
就好像养老金是他们的权力 Because the pensions are as it were in their gift.
他们通常会说 And what they have tended to do quite often
我们会把养老金增加到X is say we will increase the pension by X
但是从来不说 我们会把工人们的 without saying to the workers
劳动贡献增加到Y we will increase your contributions by Y.
因为前者能赢得大家的选票 Because the former gets them votes
后者会尽失人心 and the latter will lose them votes.
这就是其中一个导致 And that is one of several reasons
这种养老金系统 why pension systems of this kind
名义上破产的原因 are often nominally insolvent
因为债务比 because the liabilities are considerably greater
如今和预期的支出 than the current and projected payments
要高太多了 coming into the scheme.
这意味着他们必须得到 That means they have got to be funded
全面税收的支持 from general taxation.
这将会减少税收 That reduces the amount of tax money
在其他方面的运用 for other purposes
也意味着借贷将会不断增加 and it means that borrowing has got to go up
这事就是欧洲债务危机的其中一部分问题 and that's part of the problem of the Eurozone crisis.
从另一方面看 问题在于 The other side of it is the occupational
通过职业或是其他的资金计划 or other kinds of funded schemes
资金是完全通过 whereby money is contributed either by
自由职业者产生 self-employed persons entirely by themselves
还是职业养老金 to a pension pot or in the case of occupational pension
由雇主和雇员共同承担的问题 contributed both by the employee and by the employer.
这通常在 That used to be the normal deal
盎格鲁·撒克逊国家采取这样的做法 in the Anglo-Saxon countries
即现即付的制度 where the pay as you go system,
也就是国家养老金 只是一种上层建筑 the state pension, is only a kind of topper.
也就是通常被认为是最好的 That's generally regarded as much more favorable,
尽管事实上 despite the fact that of course
里面包括了管理费用 it does include management charges
而且意味着投资 and does mean that the investments
在哪一个壶上会导致 on which the pot is based are naturally
对于经济变化的脆弱 vulnerable to economic change
因为它们都在股票交易市场中 是股份 because they're in the stock exchange, in shares,
是政府的债务之类的东西 in government debt, various things of that kind.
这些在情况不好的日子里 Those have fallen on evil days
比如过去的10年中一直在崩塌 in the last decade or so partly because of
因为股票市场出现的骚乱 turmoil in stock exchanges,
部分原因是这个国家的税收很多 partly because in this country of tax raids
之前的政府通过减轻税收 by the previous government on the tax relief
才能够负担养老金 available to pensions
还有部分原因是精算师一直 and partly because actuaries consistently
低估了老年人的寿命 underestimate the extent of survival in older age.
这对于即现即付的机制是非常不利的 That's had a bad effect on pay as you go schemes.
对于基金计划也有不好的影响 It's also had a bad effect on funded schemes.
所以在英国 So what was in the UK
他们有非常令人羡慕的 a highly enviable very favorable system
养老金系统 来自专款项目 of pension system from funded schemes
但是现在已经不太令人满意了 is now very much less desirable
如果你在报纸上读到过相关内容 and if you read the papers on the matter
你就会看到很多人的焦虑 you will see that there is very considerable
关于很多英国人 disquiet about the level of which
只要能够负担起 English people are no longer saving
退休之后的生活 in a way which may be adequate
他们便不再储蓄了的报导 to pay for their retirement.
所以问题是存在的 So there's a problem there.
改革是很有必要 也是很困难的 And reform is certainly needed but difficult.
尤其是不管发生什么 And in particular whatever happens
退休年龄必须要提高 retirement age has really got to go up
并且保持在一个稳定的程度 and keep pace to a considerable extent
并且还要预计人口平均寿命的增加 with the increase in expectation of life at birth.
这已经在许多欧洲国家进行了试验 That is being tried in many many European countries.
它不可避免地会遭遇一些反对 It invariably encounters serious opposition
这是可以理解的 of an understandable kind,
但是最终 这还是目光短浅的做法 but at the end of the day a short-sighted kind.
这只能证明这些年 This is just an illustration of the way
专项养老金 资产 in which funded pensions, assets,
已经比债务还要低的现实 have fallen below their liabilities in recent years.
现在现在正在因为10年前的机制受罚 Here they were fine up to about ten years ago
如今正在经历债务问题 and now the liabilities,
发放养老金将会带来的代价 the projected costs of paying out pensions
不断地在上升 to existing contributors has gone up
而资产的价值不断降低 and the value of the assets has gone down
因此在许多情况下 and therefore in many cases
严格来说已经是无法偿还了 they are no longer technically solvent.
如果你提高接受养老金的年龄的话 Well, this is what happens
会出现这样的情况 when you try and put up pension age.
这是2008年 This is 2008.
你会看到看到 You'll have seen more excitement
昨晚电视机上令人兴奋的消息 on your telly last night,
作为改革的一部分 where as part of a reform package,
作为对改革的一个抗议 as protest against a reform package,
有50座雅典中心的大楼被烧毁 50 buildings were burnt in the center of Athens
虽然那不仅仅是关于 although that was not just a question
领取养老金人士的福利问题了 of pensioner welfare.
最近还有一些事件发生 Here are some more recent ones,
关于节俭生活的抗议 protests against austerity.
2004年意大利就有关于养老金 Here is Italy protesting against pension
和退休制度改革的大抗议 and retirement reform back in 2004, a general strike.
这是法国 Here is France.
在法国 对政府的决策 In France of course protesting against
进行抗议是政治很普遍的部分 government decisions is a normal part of politics
你们可以看到发生的事情 and you can see what's going on here.
这里的人不是都死了 The people here aren't actually dead.
他们是都在戴高乐机场的 They're people waiting in the departure lounge
出发大厅里面等着他们的 of Charles de Gaulle airport for the airline pilots
飞行员和交通管制人员 and traffic control people graciously
回到工作岗位上 这是最近的一次 to return to work in one of the more recent strikes
对于养老金改革的大罢工 against pension entitlement.
这个国家的养老金领取年龄是60岁 And this is in a country where the pension age is 60,
而不是应该的65岁 not 65 which it ought to be.
这是去年的一次抗议 This is a protest of last year,
对不起 是两年前 sorry two years ago,
原因是总统萨科奇 arising out of President Sarkozy
要求提高领取养老金的年龄 to increase the pension age
从一个本来就比较低的60岁提高到62岁 from a very very low 60 to a fairly low 62
但是国家依然不依不挠地 and still the nation grinds to a halt
进行了抗议 as usual in protest.
同样在德国 In Germany likewise,
非常令人恼怒的是 a slightly more decorous if grumpy,
关于反对社会主义政府 protest going on against
对于养老金制度2010年日程的 the socialist government's attempts
改革进行的一次抗议 to reform pension in their social agenda of 2010.
最后当然人们 And eventually of course people
会忘记所有的一切 may forget all these things
但是人口老龄化问题会日益严重 as population aging really takes a grip.
也许这有一点离体了 That's perhaps a little way off.
最后 综上所述 So, in conclusion,
你们必须记住 人口老龄化是无解的 just to remind you that there's no solution.
它能够被控制 It can be managed.
我认为 这不是一场灾难 It's not, I think, going to be a disaster
只要保持较高的出生率 as long as birth rates remain reasonably high
或是比较合适的出生率 or can be encouraged to become reasonably high
只要有合理的机制 and as long as rational systems
增加养老金的领取年龄 of increase in pension age,
增加劳动力的参与度 workforce participation,
对养老金体系进行改革等等 pension reform and so on,
只要这些事宜都被落实 就不会有大问题 are implemented.
这在我看来 This seems to me something that will follow naturally
要依靠政府 from the rational behavior of governments
比较理性的行为 which are somewhat rational
以及一些个人的努力 and also the behavior of individuals.
在欧洲的一些地方 Some parts of Europe are much more affected
人口老龄化问题已经比其他地区严重 by population aging than others
因为在欧洲南部和东亚 because of a very unfavorable combination
集合了许多不利因素比如 in southern Europe and in East Asia
低生育率 高寿命 of very low fertility, very long long life,
尤其是在意大利和日本 particularly in Italy and Japan.
在南欧也是一样 In the case of Southern Europe also,
传统的提早退休 traditional high levels of early retirements.
领取养老金的年龄较低 low levels of official pension age until recently
和高水平的补偿制度 and very high levels of compensation rate
在那里官方的养老金 whereby the official pension
已经达到了平均工资的80% was up to 80 percent of an average wage
这一水平是无法承受的 which is not an affordable level
因此必须要降低下来 and has to come down.
所以我们会面临调整的痛苦 Hence the pain of adjustment,
但是这种痛苦终会过去 that pain will pass,
我对未来是相当乐观的 and I'm reasonably optimistic about
只要采取我刚才所例举的那些 the future given rational changes of the kind
理性的方法即可 谢谢大家 that I've outlined here. Thank you.