据说Dostiafsky曾经 It's said that Dostiafsky he used to
用一个小伎俩 deal with annoying children with
来对付那些恼人的孩子 very simple trick
告诉他们站到角落 he'd tell them to stand on the corner and
努力不要想北极熊 try not to think about the white bear
成功了之后再回来 and come back, when they been successful
在1800年代 这是一件孩子们 In 1800s this was a very difficult thing for
很难做到的事 annoying children to do
它会让没人照顾孩子们 and it occupied a lot of their time
花大量的时间 which was the intention
你会很高兴知道 you will be happy to know that task
要做的事情变得简单了很多 is going to assume get much easier
因为甚至是通过建模 because even under modern projections
预测北极冰块的消融 the shrinking of ice is going to wrap out
会让北极熊在 two swards of all the worlds polar bears
14年内绝迹 in the next 14 years
威廉姆 詹姆斯说过 一个好主意 William James said, a new idea is first
开始都会被斥责是荒唐的 然后 condemned as ridiculous and then dismissed
不重要的 直到 它变得 as trivial, until finally, it becomes
广为人知 what everybody knows
这就是我们国家关于 this is exact the trajectory that
全球变暖的议论的轨迹 our national conversation on
所走的路线 global warming has taken
最开始 专家们说 First the critics said
没有变暖的证据 there is no evidence for warming
然后他们说又有证据了 then they said there is evidence
但是变暖不是人为造成的 but the warming isn't human-made
然后他们又说是人为造成的 then they said the warming is human-made
但是效果微乎其微 but the consequence will be trivial
然后现在给布什总统 and now the person who the president
提建议的人获得了诺贝尔奖 Bush divided as ozone man has a Nobel prize
几乎每个人都知道了 it pretty much everyone who can read
我们有麻烦了 knows we are in trouble
问题是为什么 不是为什么我们 The question is why, not why is our plant
星球变得越来越暖 getting warmer
而是为什么当我们知道全球 but why when we know
正在变暖的时候 it's getting warmer
我们在微博 我们在关注吗? are we twittering our collecting thumbs?
当星巴克集团们给我机会来 while when the nice forks on the Starbucks
对美国民众 give me opportunity to say exactly
说50个字内的话 fifty words to millions of precafinated
说给那些能接受意见的美国人听 therefore, highly suggestible Americans
可以通过这样的句子 by decided to write these
人类的大脑是唯一的可以 the human brains is the only object
预测未来的东西 能告诉我们 that know universe that can predict
财富在哪 the future and tell us own fortune
事实上我们有可能做出灾难性的 The fact we can make disasters decisions
决定 就算是我们预见了结果 even if we foresee the consequences
这是人类行为巨大的 It's the great unsolved mystery
未解之谜 of human behavior
当你握紧手的时候 when you hold your fit in your hands
为什么你要握紧拳头 why would you ever make a fist?
问题是为什么 the question is why indeed?
毕竟大脑自然而然的可以 why, after all our brains are evolved
对威胁做出反应 in respond to the threats
我们总在做这样的事 we do it all the time
而且我们做的很好 we do it very well
一个怪兽出现或者枪鸣会让 a predator or a gunshot would instantly
一个戏院里的人们都逃光 empty this theater
人类是一种矮小 脆弱的物种 we are very small, slow, fragile species
但是我们主宰了这个星球 but we dominated our planate
就是因为我们的大脑 because we have brains
我们的大脑对于 that's very good at
侦查和处理威胁很在行 detecting and deflecting threats
可为什么没处理好全球变暖呢？ so why not global warming?
这是因为我们的大脑自然而然的 It's because that our brain is evolved to
将所有的威胁同一对待 treat all threats the same way
我们对这四种威胁做出反应 We respond the threats that are
它们分别是故意的 不道德的 have four property, that are intentional
重大的和本能的 immoral, imminent and instantaneous
具有这四种属性的威胁 threats that have these four features
会激发我们大脑中的警报系统 trigger out brain into alarm system
然后触发行动 and they sports on the action that
来避免它们 避免威胁 don't have them, don't
而全球变暖不具备 global warming has
这些当中的任何属性 none of these properties
举例分析 consider for example
第一条 故意的 the first one: intentionality
我们的大脑 our brain, you know
分配领域是这样的 devotes specific chunks of it's precious real estate
只有那些涉及到了我们生存 only things that are wildly important
的能力才有相应的分区 for our survival
所以 我们的视觉有个分区 so vision has an area
语言有个分区 但是买东西没有 language has an area, shopping has no area
结果我们的大脑分配了 it turns out that our brain devotes
特别的区域去考虑 specific real estate to think about
别人的想法 the minds of other people
我们有特殊的神经网络完全 we have special networks devoted entirely
用于处理在危机关头中 to processing information about
你们在想什么 感觉什么 what human agency think and feel and
想干什么和想要什么 want and intent
事实上 一些科学家相信 Indeed, some scientists believe that
我们需要理解别人的思维 our need to understand the minds of
当我们回忆着 other people is actually what drive
人类过去几万年记忆中 the remarkable and president growth
重要的和主要的事情时 of the human brains in last two million years
理解别人对我们的生存是 now, understanding others is so crucial
如此的重要以至于我们都变成 to our survival, we have all become faddists
我们发展出了这样的感知能力 we develop the obsession
当任何有人类特征的东西都可以 with anything human which leave us
给人留下人类特征的超级视觉 hyper-visual for any signs of human agency
这是为什么我们能从云层中看 That's why we see faces in clouds
到人脸 却无法从人脸中看到云 we never see clouds in faces
对不？ Right?
没有人把玛丽的图像错认为 Nobody is ever mistaken the vision mary
Voltia 但他们总是却把voltia for voltia but the other way around
错认为玛丽 all the time
现在我们感知事物的能力 now, our obsession with things
的可变性能解释我们为什么 intentional explains why we worry
更担心人肉炸弹 但其实每年几乎没有 more about a underwear bomber
人因它致死 但是对流感 and annual death told zero
却不怎么担心 than that about influenza
事实上有4万美国人因流感丧命 annual death told America 40000 people
为什么？ Why?
流感是一种自然突然状况 Influenza is a natural accident
而人肉炸弹是一个故意的行为 Underwear-bombing is an intentional action
而最小的故意的行为 and the smallest intentional action
吸引了我们的注意力 captures our attention
这使得自然发生的大型事故 in the way that the largest natural accident
却得不到注意 just doesn't
你知道 如果当时那架飞机 you know, if this airplane had been hit
因为被雷击 然后撞入 by lightning and then crashed into
世贸大厦 the world trading center
现在你们没有人能告诉我 none of you could tell me the day
它是什么时候发生的 on which it happened
如果全球变暖是尝试杀死我们 The fact is global warming is trying to kill us
这个说法太扯了 因为如果天气变化 that's a damn shame because if climate change
都是阴谋策划 都是被这些 with some serious plot, vising the plot
大胡子的坏人们策划的 by very bad bad man with mass mustaches
我们肯定会因为变暖而发动战争 right now, we'll be fighting a war on warming
自发而自主的这样做 without congressional approval
而第二件关于全球变暖的事 the second thing about global warming
第二个没有让我们变得警觉 the second reason that it doesn't put our brain
的原因是 on origin of alert
它没有违反 It's that it doesn't violate
我们的道德良知 our moral sensibility
它不能使我们义愤填膺 It doesn't cause our blood to boil
它不是具体的 well, it's no figuratively
它没有给我们任何让我们 it doesn't confront us with anything
感觉受压迫或者是低级 that feels repulsive or indecent
或者猥琐或者恶心 or impious or disgusting
当那些我们大脑关心了 the more emotions are aroused
几千年的问题被提出来时 by the kinds of things that the brains
更多的感情会被激发 has been concerning for millions of years
比如食物 性 而不是大气化学 food and sex, not atmosphere chemistry
这就是为什么每个国家都有 and that's why every society has a lot
一大堆关于你可以亲谁 bit more rules about who you can kiss and
和你可以吃什么东西的规则 what you can eat and then whatsoever
而没有关于什么时间使用空调 about when you can run your air conditioner
我们的大脑面对违反 our brains respond to violation
道德律时的感觉是 with these moral rules feeling
警觉 恶心 而这些感觉 alarm and disgust, and those feelings
会迫使我们行动 compel us to action
如果全球变暖是由同性恋 If global warming were caused by guy sex
或者由吃小狗引起的 or caused by the practice eating puppies
美国人现在就已经在大街上 Americans must be now messing in street
呼吁抵制了 calling for its end
第三个全球没有引起我们的 The third reason that global warming
警觉的原因是 doesn't bring our attention to alarm
它是一个比较远期的威胁 is that it's a threat to our tomorrow
而不是一个马上发生的威胁 and it's not a threat to our evening
我们可以看到地球上的其他的 Look, every other animal on the planet
动物对于清除威胁都很在行 we respond very well to clear present danger
我们的大脑是一种清除路障的 our brain is essentially a get-out-of-the-way
仪器 它时时刻刻的侦查这周围 machine that is constantly surveying
的环境试图找出那些 the environment trying to find things out
立刻会发生的障碍 of those ways right now get
这就是为什么我们可以在几微秒 that's why we can dock a baseball
内反映并击出排球 in mini-seconds
大脑使用它最主要的功能 now brains did this for millions
从它们出现并从事着这样的工作 of thousands of years after they appeared
已经有千万年了 on this planet, that's their primary job
直到最近 它们才学会了新东西 and very recently, they learn the new trick
它们开始学习做关于未来 they learn to make the predictions
的预测 about the futures
换句话说 它们学习怎么样 In other words, they learn how to
清除前进路上的那些还没有 get out of the way of things
发生的障碍物 that are not yet coming
这种新的天赋是很妙的 this new talent is wonderful
但是从自然的观点上来看 but from nature's point of view
它仍然处于测试期 it's still in beta testing
它仍然处于R&D的早期阶段 It's still in the early stage of R&D
我们大脑的极小的部分是负责 a very small part of our brain is responsible
思考未来的 for thinking about the future
而很大的部分则是用来 and very large part is responsible
思考如何处理即使问题 for getting the hell out of the way
飞来的棒球击飞 of a baseball
这么多给现在 this much, this much for now
这么多给未来 and this much for eternity
这就是为什么我们比较少的关心 that's why we care less about future
我们的未来 即使一些分析系统 than any rational analysis
建议我们应该关注未来 suggest we should
如果你给人们这样的选项 If you give people a choice between
让他们选择立刻拿到100美元或 getting 100 dollars now and another amount
一年内拿到另外一个数量 他们 in one year, they basically demand
选择等的人会要求多200美元 about 200 dollars in order to wait
这是一个利率的问题 它使得 that's an interest rate that will
人们觉得这是一个好的长期投资 make the long shocks master of their eyes
它需要大量的严格 it takes huge amount of conjuring
训练来让人们 and lagging and plating and training
做事情 to get people to do anything
为未来做打算 it on behalf of their future itself
退休的人来储备以备晚年 from saving for a retired man to flossing and it turns out
只有20%的美国人说他们会 only 20% of Americans even say they floss
而且你知道他们中有些人在说谎 and you know some of them are lying
事实上是如果北极熊要在 the fact is if the polar bears were going to be
星期五灭绝 那么你们现在就 extinct on Friday, you will be hanging out
不会跟我在一起而是跟它们 with them instead of me
全球变暖的未来 The future of global warming lags
就像这个一样 is like this
我们的大脑对变化是极端敏感的 our brain is extremely sensitive to changes
温度 重量 冲击 声音 光线 changes in temperature, weight, crash
等所有的物理维度的变化 sound, light, all physical dimensions
但是它们变化速率的快慢则会有 but the rate at which it changes makes a big
很大影响 如果变化变得足够慢 different, if the rate of the change
变化就不会被察觉到 slow enough changes go undetected
年轻人 一定要察觉啊 be aware, young man be aware
像这样的秃顶 每天掉一根 changes like this happen one hair
头发 at a time
好吧 Ok
不可能说某天我们醒来 there is no day in which we weak up
就突然发现自己是秃顶的了 and say I'm a bold man
事实上 如果没有东西来 In fact if you don't have a spouse
提醒你 to inspect you
你可能从来没法 you might never actually
意识到发生了什么 realize that happened
好 我们接受那些渐渐的变化 Well, we accept these gradual changes
我们不能接受的是 changes we'll never accept
突然的变化 if they happen abruptly
我一天就变成秃顶 没有过程 if I waken up one day without that
我们就突然变成了那样 and suddenly look that way
我会跑到最近的理发店 I would running to the nearest hair club for
找那个人说理去 man begging for plagues
其实我们接受的变化是 The fact is that we accept changes
慢慢发生的变化 that happen slowly
慢慢发生的变化我们可以接受 changes that happens slowly
我们不能接受的是它们 but we will never accept if
快速的发生 they happen quickly
很多环境学家说全球变暖 many environmentalists say global warming
发生的太快了 is happening too fast
不 它们发生的太慢了 No, it's happening too slowly
它们发生的完全不够快 It's happening not near quickly enough
以至于不能得到我们的注意 to get our attention
我们的空气和水的纯洁度在我们 the impurity of our air and our water
的一生中都不断的在被破坏 has increased dramatically in my lifetime
但是我们可以容忍这些发生就是 but we tolerate it because it's happening
因为它们是每天变坏一点点 one day at one time
你知道 当今 我们有很多的警告 You know there is warning today
不要吃鱼 不要游泳 don't eat fish don't swimming