凯恩斯真正教给我们了什么？ What did Keynes really teach?
本土凯恩斯主义 The influence of vulgar Keynesianism
对学术正统以及实践行为的影响 on academic orthodoxy as well as on practical discourse
是如此之大 has been so great
以致于险些遮蔽了 that it threatens to obscure
凯恩斯成熟的学术理论的独特核心 the distinctive core of Keynes's developed academic theory
幸运的是 Fortunately
他的理论没有被数学模型所拖累 the theory is unencumbered by the toy mathematics
这种数学模型在之后的经济理论中 that has served so much subsequent economic theorizing
屡屡被当作因果解释的借口 as a surrogate for causal explanation
我以9个命题来解析他的理论 I interpret this theory as organized around 9 propositions
前3个命题的主题 The first 3 propositions
紧密联系着 have to do with the themes intimately connected
凯恩斯关于货币 不确定性和假象的理论 in Keynes's ideas of money, uncertainty and illusion
第1个命题是 The first proposition is that
货币经济不应 a money economy should not
被理解成伪经济 be understood as if it were a bugger economy
货币并不是一层透明的面纱 money is not a transparent veil
相关的 维持现金结余平衡的需求波动 the relative and shifting desire to hold liquid balances
而非投资或消费 rather than to invest or to spend
会对经济活动的进程产生重大影响 exerts a significant influence on the course of economic activity
第2个命题是 The second proposition is that
不可量化的不确定性 不同于可量化的风险 unquantifiable uncertainty differs from quantifiable risk
未来是不确定的 The future is uncertain
未来的不确定性之一就在于 and one of the uncertainties of the future has to do
别人会怎样应对 with how other people will respond
未来的不确定性 to the unknown ability of the future
我们使用货币的方式 The way we use money
反映了我们对于未来的无知 bears the imprint of our ignorance of the future
并有助于解释 and helps to explain
货币经济是如何变成了假象的温床 how a money economy becomes a hot bed of illusion
被恐惧蒙蔽 shadowed by fear
充满了贪婪 and embodied by greed
第3个命题是 The third proposition is that
经济生活这个领域 economic life is a field
充满了希冀 恐惧和贪婪 of aspirations of hope, fear and greed
以及假象 and of illusions
而假象与希冀的结合 And this combination of illusion and aspiration
使得经济生活 makes it impossible to
不可能用理性工具来解释 reduce economic life to instrumental rationality
从有限方法的集合到预先决定的结果 the marshaling of selective means to predetermined ends
下面4个命题是关于 The next 4 propositions have to do with
带来进步的经济事故 the economic mishaps that made progresses
特别是通过将经济放逐到 especially by abandoning the economy
与充分就业不相容的低水平均衡状态 to a low level equilibrium incompatible with full employment
第4个命题是 萨伊定律的失误 The fourth proposition is that Say's Law fluffs
供应并不决定需求量 supply does not ensures itself demand
无用的商品价格 the price of a unwanted good
也许会一直下降到足以激发需求的水平 may fall until it is wanted
但在那之前 对于承担风险的人而言 but not before an advantage has turned into a disaster
这个优势早就变成了一场灾难 for someone who has taken the risk
第5个命题是 每个市场经济中 The fifth proposition is that in every market economy
都存在多重均衡 there are multiple equilibriums
不仅限于 19世纪末的边际主义学家 not just the one convergent equilibrium
所预兆的这一种 收敛平衡 adumbrated by the marginalists of the late 19th century
在一个与充分就业相兼容的水平上 The economy maybe imbalance
或是与大批失业相兼容的水平上 at a level compatible with full employment
经济都可能失衡 or the level compatible with massive unemployment
第6个命题是 除了多重均衡 The sixth proposition is that in addition to multiple equilibriums
还始终存在一种失衡的趋势 there is a persistent tendency to disequilibrium
其形式为 向更高水平的平衡接近 in the form of ascent to a higher level equilibrium
或向更低水平的平衡接近 or descent to a lower level one
经济事件 Events in an economy
由公司或家庭的决定所引发 produced by the decisions of firms or of households
或外部冲击所引发 or of by external shocks
可能造成与其引发诱因极不相称的后果 may produce results vastly disproportionate to their triggers
第7个命题是 The seventh proposition is that
经济中的价格僵化 the rigidity of prices in the economy
可能加剧低水平均衡 may accelerate the risk of low level disequilibrium
以及周期失衡的风险 and the force of recurrent disequilibrium
在所有僵化的价格中 And of all these rigid prices
最重要的是劳动力的价格 the most important is the price of labor
它更易升高 而不是降低 which rises more easily than it falls
这在凯恩斯的原始体系中 A subsidiary proposition
是一个从属性的命题 in Keynes's proto-system
已经由Alfred Marshall和其弟子Pigou所指明 already remarked by Alfred Marshall and by his disciple Pigou
原始体系中最后的2个命题 The last 2 propositions in the proto-system
是关于这一系列理念的实际应用方面 have to do with the practical implications of this set of ideas
第8个命题是 The eighth proposition is that
政府可采取(听不清)措施 the government can act to (INAUDIBLE)
通过政府消费和投资 an economy out of low level equilibrium
摆脱经济低水平均衡 through public spending and investment
来弥补私人消费及投资的不足 that makes up for the dearth of private spending and investment
第9个命题是 And the ninth proposition
一项鼓励消费及投资的措施 is that one inducement to spend
可以导致别的消费和投资 and to invest can lead to another
造成一种信心和企业精神的良好循环 in a virtuous cycle of confidence and of enterprise
来弥补恐惧和萧条的下降循环 that compensates for the downward cycle of fear and depression
凯恩斯的分析工具并不足以 Keynes's analytic apparatus was inadequate
使他发展出上述9个命题所概括的思想 to the development of the ideas summarized in these 9 propositions
然而 他的学说充满洞见和活力 Nevertheless, his academics is full of insight and of life
存在于其雄心和渗透力之中 in its ambition and its penetration
它远远高于之后所有的经济学理论 it towers above almost everything that was done in economics after him
但如果我们将这些思想 If however, we compare these ideas
与经济学历史上两位最伟大的思想家 to the ideas of the two greatest thinkers in the history of economics
亚当·斯密和卡尔·马克思相比较 Adam Smith and Karl Marx
凯恩斯的局限就很明显了 their limitations become manifest
第一 凯恩斯缺乏 In the first place, Keynes lacks
这两位所具有的历史观 the world historical perspective that they possessed
第二 他的经济学说没有预见到 In the second place, his economics has no vision
生产的现实和可能性 of the realities and the possibilities of production
他批判他那个时代的经济 He criticized the economics of his day
忽视货币的现实 for disregarding the reality of money
以及将货币经济看作是伪经济 and treating money economies as if they were bugger economies
他错误地将世界生产看作 he commits the inversion of treating the world production
货币世界的肤浅延伸 这是本末倒置的 as a shadowing extension of the world of money
由此产生的凯恩斯式学术观点更可能被 and produces an academics much more likely to appeal
银行 对冲基金为基础的经济学家所认可 to the economists who visits banks and hedge funds
而不是那些以工厂基础的经济学家 than to the ones who visit factories
正如亚当·斯密和卡尔·马克思 as Adam Smith and Karl Marx did
第三 他的学说欠缺 In the third place, his doctrine is devoid of
对协作 创新的 the prophetic insight into
潜力的预见 the potential full cooperation and innovation
这种协作和创新 that must inspire any great work
是物质生活中一切重大进步的灵感 on our material life
我们应该抛弃这种思维方法 We should turn away from this way of thinking
寻找不同的观点 and seek a different light