凯恩斯主义是今天全世界的进步主义者 Keynesianism is the default economic creed
所默认的经济信条 of progressives around the world today
在这组视频中 In these videos
我指出它不是我们目前最需要的 I argue that it fails to provide what we now chiefly need
学术观点 as a source of academic insight
以及学术重建的指导 and as a guide to academic reconstruction
第一个视频讨论了凯恩斯主义所起的作用 The first video discusses the role that Keynesianism performs
以及通俗的凯恩斯主义的局限性 and the limitations of vulgar Keynesianism
第二个视频解析了 The second video interprets the core of
凯恩斯的完备的学术理论的核心 Keynes's developed academic theory
第三个视频探索了此理论观点的劣势 The third video explores the weaknesses of this theoretical vision
及其这些缺陷所产生的后果 and the consequences of these deficiencies
我的理论要点是凯恩斯主义有3大缺点 The gist of my argument is that Keynesianism suffers from 3 major flaws
第一个缺点是 The first flaw is that
它最喜爱的手段 财政刺激 its favored device, fiscal stimulus
绝不足以保证重大经济衰落的复苏 It's never enough to ensure recovery from a major slump
第二个缺点是它缺乏制度上的想象力 The second defect is its deficiency of institutional imagination
包括想象如何安排才可以并且应该 including imagination of the arrangements that can and should
管理财政和实体经济之间的关系 govern the relation of finance to the real economy
第三个缺点是其无视 The third flaw is its blindness to the realities
生产的现实性及可能性 as well as to the possibilities of production
关于经济危机和复苏无望的公众争论 An apparent paradox dominates much of the public debate
一个占主导性的明显的悖论是 about the economic crisis and the failing recovery
这场危机由过多的信心 a crisis brought on by too much confidence
过度的信贷和消费所引发 too much credit and too much spending
需要的却是更多的信心 信贷和消费来补救 requires for a fix, more confidence, more credit and more spending
这种言论的智力背景 The intellectual background to this discourse
就是通俗的凯恩斯主义 is vulgar Keynesianism
凯恩斯打算背离 Keynes intended to rebel against
在当时占支配地位的经济理论 the predominate economic theory of his day
他的一些追随者 特别是美国的追随者 some of his followers, especially of his American followers
放弃了这种背离 retreated from rebellion
他们把他的理论缩减为 they reduced his theory to the role of
为财政刺激提供智力支持的角色 providing intellectual support for fiscal stimulus
这就是初学者们在课本里 This is the Keynesianism that beginners in economics
通过IS/LM曲线学到的凯恩斯理论 encounter in the form of the IS/LM curves in their schoolbooks
它是微观经济学的中心 It is the center piece of a microeconomics
它被强加到 that can be super-imposed
已存在的经济理论体系中 on the preexisting body of economic theory
被界定为微观经济学 now labeled microeconomics
在同一历史时期 A similar operation took place
在法律思想的领域也发生了相似的事件 in the same historical epic in legal thought
一批新的公法塑造了 A new body of public law shaped the regulatory
政府的调控和再分配活动 and redistributive activity of the state,
它被托附到不变的私法体系中 it was pasted down to the unchanged system of private law
政治经济和法律中的共同元素 The common element in political economy and in law
保证了20世纪中期的 was commitment to the social democratic settlement
社会民主改革 of the mid 20th century
通过这些改革 By the terms of this settlement
挑战生产和交换现有体制的力量 the forces that challenged the established organization
终结了这场挑战 in production and exchange renounce this challenge
政府可以获取权力 The state was allowed to acquire the power
来调节平等性 to moderate in equalities
通过税收和转移来进行补偿性再分配 by compensatory redistribution through tax and transfer
并成功实现经济的反周期 and to manage the economy counter cyclically
这种对经济的反周期管理的教条 The doctrine of this counter cyclical management of the economy
就是通俗的凯恩斯主义 was vulgar Keynesianism
我们可以通过其成果 We can judge vulgar Keynesianism
来对通俗的凯恩斯主义进行评价 by its fruits
首先就是财政刺激的有效性 above all, by the efficacy of fiscal stimulus
财政刺激远不足以保证 Fiscal stimulus is never enough to ensure recovery
从哪怕是温和的经济大萧条中复苏 from even a moderately large economic slump
正如世界最近所经历的这次大萧条 such as the one that the world has recently undergone
这种不足理由有三 It is never enough for 3 reasons
第一个原因是 The first reason is that
它将被强大的利益与观点的结合所阻止 it will be stopped by a coalition of powerful interest and opinions
是他们合法地(听不清)政府的授权 who rightly (INAUDIBLE) the empowerment of the state
同样也将阻止 and too will be determined to prevent it
其达到不服从权威的程度 from reaching the recusant magnitude
第二个原因在于 The second reason is that
远在其达到必要的限度之前 long before it were to achieve that necessary scale
它就将引发 it would provoke a crisis of confidence
关于国家国债的信任危机 in the sovereign debt in the obligations of the state
第三个原因是 The third reason is that
就算它能达到这个尺度 那也是不够的 even if it were to reach that scale, it would be insufficient
除非伴随着激励经济和教育机会的 unless accompanied by institutional experiments in the brooding
制度试验 of economic and educational opportunity
财政刺激虽然有用甚至是不可或缺的 Fiscal stimulus may be useful and even indispensable
作为经济复苏项目的一部分 as part of a programme of economic recovery
它能阻止萧条的加剧 It can prevent the aggravation of a slump
它能赢取时间 it can buy time
它能预计到一些全方位的 it can anticipate some of the features
经济角色的策略的特点 of a strategy of broad-based inclusive economic role
但无论是通俗的凯恩斯主义的教条或是实践 But nothing in the doctrine or practice of vulgar Keynesianism
都不能促成该策略的形成 contributes to the formulation of such a strategy
大规模的资源调动 The combination of massive mobilization of resources
与大胆的试验 with bold experimentation
以及政府和私人生产商的结合 in the association of governments with private producers
正是20世纪中期经济的战时 was the war time economy of the mid 20th century
没有战争的战时经济理论 A theory of the war economy without war
将比通俗的凯恩斯主义更有用 would have been more useful than vulgar Keynesianism
战时的人们 Warly men and women
默许制度管理 who acquiesce in the institutional arrangements
正是它限定了通俗的凯恩斯主义的界限 that set the outer limits to vulgar Keynesianism
相信他们被默许卖给现实主义者 believe that they are acquiescence solds them to be realists
他们把屈服误认为是现实主义 they mistake prostration for realism
战时策略并不能理解世界 也不能改变世界 The warly can neither understand the world, nor change it