欢迎大家来参加我们这个新的讲座 I'd like to welcome you to the launch of our new lecture,
公共讲座系列之"发现心理学" public lecture series called Discover Psychology
这个讲座的目的 and this lecture series,
是不同于我们同样正在举办的 the goal of it is to be a bit different from typical research
每周四的例行研讨会 colloquium that we also host on Thursday.
我们希望这些基于科学的讨论 These talks are meant to be,the,delivering really accessible,
对于普通听众来说是易懂的 engaging, interesting talks for
引人入胜的 而且是有趣的 general audience that are based in science.
我猜我在这第一场讲座中有很多要说的 So I guess I have a lot to live up in the very first talk.
在我们开始之前 Before we get started
我想先感谢一下 I just want to thank a couple of groups
对于组织这个讲座系列起到重要作用的一些人 that have been instrumental in helping organize this series.
一个是毕业生办公室 One is the alumni office,and that,
爱思考林先生是这个办公室的代表 今天也来到了现场 law eslcalont is actually here representing the alumni office,
他们帮助我们推动讲座的进展 they have been excellent in helping to promote
给予我们帮助 and bring everything together and giving us their support.
另外还有科学媒体实验室 他们在承担录制的工作 And also the science media lab who's doing all the recording,
大家可能已经注意到这些讲座过程中都有在被录制 you may notice that all these talks are being recorded.
如果你们不能亲身来参加这些讲座I if you can't make on of these talks in person,
你们还可以上网看 you can always watch them online.
讲座的视频在星期二中午就会被 They will be available by the Tuesday
放到网站上面 by, at noon, on ITunes University, the McMasters site.
你也可以直接去discoversychology.ca You can also access them by going to just discoversychology.ca
到星期三 在每个讲座后面 and on the Wednesday following each talk
都会有一个对于演讲人 there will be an interview online
回顾讲座的在线访谈 with the speaker looking back at their talk.
这样 如果你因为害羞不愿意当面提问的话 So if your shy about asking questions in person
你可以参与到在线讨论中来 you could always join the discussion online
在那个论坛里向演讲者提刁钻的问题 and ask the really tough questions to the speaker on that forum.
并且 我们会把每个演讲的文本都放到网上 And then we'll also post a transcript for each of these talks.
看起来我们有几个 So it looks like we have a few people
需要找位子的朋友 that just need to get some seats.
好的 Yep.
或者坐在边上的人可以往中间挪一挪 Maybe people at the edges can move in towards the middle
把后面的作为让给后来的人 to leave the seats at the ends for latecomers.
在我今天的演讲中 So in my talk today
我会尝试着回答一个很基本的问题 I'm going to be trying to answer a very basic question,
为什么我们应该把心理学作为一种科学来看待? why should we approach psychology as a science?
通常 这时候应该是组织者 And normally at this stage of the talk is
向大家介绍演讲者并讲述 when the organizer would introduce the speaker
一到两个令人尴尬的故事 and maybe tell an embarrassing story or two about it.
而现在 我既是组织者又是演讲人 In this case I am both, both the organizer and the speaker
所以我就自我介绍一下吧 so I think I'll just introduce myself.
我是乔金博士 My name is Dr. Joe Kim
是心理学入门这门课的讲师 and I'm an instructor for Introductory Psychology
你们看到我现在的样子 and this is what I look like now,
这就是我六岁时候的样子 this is what I looked like when I was six years old
这是一岁时候的样子 and this is what I look like when I was one.
一个关于我的令人尴尬的故事就是 An embarrassing, an embarrassing story about me is,
任何在观众席中心理学入门这门课的学生 well any Introductory Psychology students in the audience,
你们可能也会在像心理学初级介绍 you may also recognize me from such web modules
这类网络模块中认出我 as Introduction to Psychology.
我的方向感很差 Embarrassing thing about I that I'm very poor at directions
这应该是遗传我母亲的 and this is probably something I take after my mom,
她保留着我从小学 there she is, who incidentally keeps a full record of
开始所有的成绩单 all my report cards from grade school
因为你永远不知道你什么时候会用得到那个 because you never know when you might need that.
于是 我是个心理学家 And so I'm a psychologist,
虽然绝对不是那种类型的 not that kind, definitely not that kind though,
但我的办公室里确实有一个沙发 I do have a couch in my office.
我的实验室对于我们怎样使用科技 My lab is interested in how we can use technology
来创造有效的教学和学习很感兴趣 to create effective teaching and learning
坐在前排的各位可能注意到 and those of you in the front rows may have noticed that
我有个相当大的脑袋 I have quite a large head
你们也知道人们都说脑袋大的人 and you know what they say about people with large heads,
大脑也很大 they have large brains,
这是件好事 which is of course a very good thing
因为大家知道我们只用了大脑的十分之一 because as you know we only use ten percent of our brain.
这是自学的作家和行政人员 This is something that self help authors and ad executives
许多年前就知道的事 have known for decades
显然 大多数民众也是知道的 and apparently so does of most of the general public.
2002年一项关于民众对神经系统科学认识的测试表明 In a 2002 survey testing the knowledge of neuroscience,
尽管大多数人意识到 although most people realize
情绪是在大脑而不是心中产生的 emotions occur in your brain and not your heart,
还是有大约半数接受过大学教育的人 almost half the university-educated
相信我们只使用十分之一的大脑 population believe this statement that
这种说法是真的 we only use ten percent of our brains to be true.
那么 一个问题就产生了 So it begs that question
为什么我们会开始相信这种无稽之谈呢? why do we start believing such ridiculous urban myths?
如果我们仔细 If we start looking at the statement
看看这种说法 "We only use ten percent of our brains"
我甚至都不确定他究竟在说什么 I'm not even sure what it exactly means.
一种可能性是说 One possibility could be that
我们只使用了构成我们大脑的神经细胞每十个中的一个 the cells that make up our brain are called neurons,
或者是说我们只能使用大脑的十分之一 maybe we only use one of every ten neurons in our brain,
而剩下的那些 or maybe we only use only ten percent of our brain
是作为保护我们 and the other ninety percent is acting as some kind of cushion
大脑的某种缓冲垫 that protects the rest of the brain.
然而 我们确实知道 However we do know that
即使是对大脑很小的部分的损害 damage to even a very small part of the brain
也能造成人们行为和性格的变化 can cause extreme damage and changes in behavior and personality.
案例研究可以证实这一点 Case studies can confirm this.
所以我想在此次演讲中回答的问题就是 So the question then I want to answer in this lectures,
我们如何衡量新的信息 how do we come to evaluate new information,
又应该使用何种方法去衡量 what sort of methods should we use?
我现在要讲一个来自于我童年的例子 and I'll give an example from my own childhood.
我的父母都是韩国人 My parents are of Korean descent
我在成长的过程中很害怕一种因电风扇造成的死亡 and I can tell you that as I grew up I feared electric fan death.
你们中的一些可能从来没听说过 Some of you may not have heard of this before
但这是一种很韩国化的说法 but it is very Korean specific belief that
说的是如果你一晚上都开着电风扇睡觉 if you fall asleep in a room with the fan running all night
你就会死于低体温 you will surely die from hypothermia
或者空气会穿过你的身体流过 or it could cause the air to flow past you,
我最近问了我的父母 I recently confronted my parents about this.
就在几个月之前 我准备另一个演讲的时候 About a few months ago as I was preparing another talk
我的母亲打来电话 向我确定说 and my mom assured me
"对 那是很危险的 "oh yes, it is very dangerous
你不能开着电风扇睡觉" you cannot fall asleep with an electric fan on."
我对此做了一点研究 And I did a little bit more research on this
发现事实上 an in fact in the Korean media
每个夏天韩国媒体都会有 there's about a story or two every summer reporting about someone
一到两个死于电风扇的报道 dying from electric fan death.
所以 这不仅仅是韩国的特殊现象 So it's not just the Korean specific phenomenon
我们来做个小测试 let's do a little bit of quiz.a little bit of quiz
我将给你们一些说法 I'm going to point out some statements to you.
我希望你们投票表示 I'd like you to vote on
你们认为这些说法是否属实 whether you think these statements are true or false.
所以这会给我们 So this will just give us
一种神秘的感觉 a sense of where your own urban myth-o-meters at.
第一个问题是 So the first question is
中国的长城 the Great Wall of China
是唯一可以在太空看到的人造物体 is the only human made object visible from space.
大家认为这是真的还是假的? You think that's true or false.
认为这是对的的人请举手 Who thinks it's true raise your hand.
谁认为这是错的?认为错的人答对了 Who thinks it's false? False is correct.
事实上 It is just one of many things that
长城只是人们可以在太空中看到的许多东西中的一个而已 you can see on earth from space,
而且它其实很难被看到 in fact the Great Wall of China is actually very difficult to see
因为它是石头做的 because it is made out of rocks
和周围的环境十分相像 from the environment that make it blend in.
第二个问题是 Second question
年长的人的耳朵 older men have significantly larger ears
比其他人群大很多 谁觉得这是真的? than other sub populations. Who thinks that this is true?
谁觉得是假的? Who thinks that this is false?
这其实是真的 It's actually true.
有几项纵向研究表明 There have been several longitudinal studies,
我也不知道其中的原因 I don't know why, that have documented that
一般来说男人的耳朵比女人大 men have larger than women in general
而年长的人的耳朵甚至更大 and the older you get older men have even larger ears.
第三个说法是 Third your fingernails continue to grow
人的指甲在人死后72小时内仍然在生长 for up to 72 hours following death?
谁觉得这是真的?谁觉得这是假的呢? Is that true, who thinks it's true ad who thinks its false?
这是假的 人一旦死了 所有的就都停止了 It's false. Once you die everything stops,
这是由脱水而产生的一种假象 it is an illusion created by dehydration,your skin pulls back
你的皮肤收缩了 你的指甲看起来就像生长了一样 and it makes it look like your nails are growing.
第四个 科里奥利现象 Fourth, the Coriolis Effect influences water
使水在南北半球 to spin down the drain in opposite directions
以相反方向流淌 in the northern and southern hemispheres?
这是真的吗?谁觉得这是假的?其实这是假的 Is that true? Who says it's false? It's false,
水流向下水道的方向 water flows down the drain in the same direction
在世界的任何地方都是一样的 everywhere in the world.
这跟科里奥利现象无关 It has nothing to do with the Coriolis Effect.
最后一个问题 Finally,
你更容易被一个群体而不是个人帮助? you're more to likely to be helped by a crowd than an individual?
谁觉得这是真的? Who thinks that this is true?
谁觉得是假的?其实这是假的 And who thinks that it is false. It's actually false.
一个群体的人 A crowd of people are a lot less likely
在一种叫做责任分散的过程中更加不可能去帮助你 to help you through a process called,diffusion of responsibility.
如果你不相信我说的话 So if you,you shouldn't take my word for it
我建议你自己去查查资料 I would encourage you to look up references on your own
这里是一些可以帮到你的东西 and here's some references to get you started.
所以现在问题就是 So the question then is how do we know
我们如何知道一种说法到底是真的还是假的 if something is true or false?
我将谈到你们可能用到的四种技巧 I'm going to talk about 4 different techniques that you might use.
一种是我们可以求助于权威 One is we can appeal to authority,
二是你可以使用你的常识 secondly you can use your own good common sense,
三是可以通过逻辑推理 third we can appeal to something we find like reasoning and logic
四是我们所要说的科学方法 and fourth we'll talk about the scientific method.
我将要谈到一些科学中的例子 And I'm going to draw on examples
和心理学中 from across science in general and some questions
具体的问题 in psychology in particular.
但同样的原理可以在所有领域中适用 But the same principles will apply across all fields.
那么我们的第一个方法是求助于权威 So the first question authority.
可能我最喜欢的是听妈妈的话 It be in my best interest to listen to my mother
吃掉所有的蔬菜 and eat all my vegetables
然后等半个小时后再去游泳 and perhaps wait up to half an hour before I go swimming
但这种做法存在一个问题 but it begs the question,
这位女士的知识是从哪来的呢? where did this women get this knowledge
我们能信任她吗? and can we even trust her?
因为一种没有被证实的说法 Because a statement that is unverified
会导致很奇怪的假设 can lead to some very odd hypotheses.
所以亚里士多德 So in his great work The History of Animals,
在他的著作《动物历史》 Aristotle presented a long and apparently
中提出了一个长而服人的论点 very convincing argument of
他解释了为什么男人和女人有不同数量牙齿 why men and women should have different numbers of teeth
因此那时的知识阶层都 and so the educated class at the time believed that
相信男人的牙齿比女人要多 men have more teeth than women.
没人会去验证 No one bothered to check
因为这是一个多么简明的论点啊 because this was such an elegant argument.
但这不是针对于 But this is not something that is specific to just the
普通大众的 general public
连科学家也可能会被愚弄 even scientists can be fooled.
我想给大家讲讲"大提琴阴囊"的简要历史 Let me give you a brief history of Cello Scrotum.
这是大提琴演奏者所有的一种使其虚弱的状态 This is a debilitating condition
我猜是放置在大腿间的大提琴 suffered by cello players something to do with, I guess,
的形状和震动造成的 the vibrations and the geometry of the placement
第一次发现是在1974年 of the cello in your lap and it was first reported in 1974.
这些年间 And over the years
关于这种说法的可靠性一直存在质疑 there were some questions on its authenticity
特别是1991年 especially by Shapiro in 1991
夏皮罗激烈地提出对于这种病是否存在的疑问 who vehemently argued against the existents of cello scrotum
但其他的研究者都觉得 but then again other researchers thought
"是啊 听起来其实挺对的" "yeah its sounds about right."
1997年来 有种煽动性的关于 There's a, there's papers as recent as 1997
阴囊肿块的说法 talking about early stage inflammatory scrotal pseudo tumor
跟大提琴阴囊有关 related to cello scrotum.
今年早些时候被发现这些都是一个闹剧 Earlier this year it was revealed that it was all a hoax.
最早报道大提琴 So the original authors reporting cello scrotum
阴囊的人澄清说 admitted and came clean that
他们仅仅是编造了一个笑话 we just made it all up it was all just a joke
然而几十年来人们都在引用这些文章 and for decades people had been citing this paper.
所以 不仅是普通大众会被愚弄 So it's not just the general public that gets fooled,
科学家们也同样被愚弄了 scientists get fooled as well.
那么我们来谈谈常识 我们干脆把权威抛到一边 So let's talk about common sense lets just throw authority,
不接受权威的建议 taking advice from authority figures out the window.
常识又怎样呢 How about common sense?
问题是常识总是 Well the thing about common sense is that
给你相抵触的信息 it gives you conflicting information
如果我问你 if I asked you
是相似的人更容易相互吸引还是不同的人更可能 is it better if people are alike or not alike to be attracted to
你可能会说人以类聚 another you might say birds of a feather flock together,
当然 那可以解释所有的事情 of course that explains everything,
但如果有另外一个常见的说法恰恰与之相反呢 or what would be another common folkism that says the opposite?
也有说法是异性相吸 到底哪一种是对的? Opposites attract, so which one is it?
你可以用常识来支持你相信的任何一种观点 You can use common sense to support any argument that you want.
科学与之不同的是 What's different about science is that we take these observations,
我们运用这些观察得出结论 we can come up with a theory
并且在下一次的观察之前可以做出某种预测 and then before the next observation
一种可以验证的假设 we can make some sort of prediction,a testable hypothesis
然后我们观察接下来会发生什么 and then see what happens in the observation.
所以这就是科学的力量 So that is the power of science,
从常识中 in common sense
而在科学界 我们可以进行预测 we only have after the fact or post-hoc explanations,
我们仅有事后的解释 where as in science we can make really strong predictions.
接着我要给大家讲一个心理学的例子 And I'll give an example from psychology,
有一种现象叫做"认知的反对派" there's a phenomenon called Cognitive Dissidents.
想像一下我叫你参加一个实验 Imagine I introduce you to an experiment,
我带你来到实验室 I bring you to the lab
并让你做你可以想到的 and I ask you to do the worlds most boring task
世界上最无聊的任务 whatever you could think of
可能仅仅是让你为文件分类 it could just be sorting through papers
你做了大约一个小时以后 我问你 and you do this for about an hour and then I asked you,
"我需要你的帮助" I really need your help,
我知道这是假的我也不会评价这项任务 I know this is I won't comment on the task
但我需要你去告诉下一位被试人 but I need you to tell the next subject
这是你做过的最有趣的研究 that this is the most interesting study that you've ever taken,
因为我确实需要完成我的实验 because I really need to fill up my experiment
对于你的帮助 And for your troubles
我将给你两美元或者一百美元的 I'll give you either a $2 coupon to Tim Horton's
去蒂姆霍顿的消费券" or a $100 coupon to Tim Horton's."
就是这样的状况 So here are the conditions,
你做了一项无聊的任务 you do a boring task I ask you to lie to the next person
我让你向下一个人撒谎告诉他们这很有意思 and tell them it's not boring
我就会给你两美元或者一百美元 and I'm going to give you the $2 or $100.
最后我将会问你 In the end I'm going to ask you,
你亲自回来告诉我 you personally come back tell me
你对这个研究的真实评价 what did you really think of this study?
它是否有趣? How interesting was this study?
谁又将觉得这项研究更有趣? Who is going to tell you that this study was more interesting,
你付了两美元的还是一百美元的 the person that you paid $2 or a $100?
观众:一百美元? Audience: $100?
乔金博士:还有谁认为是一百美元的?谁认为是两美元的? Dr. Joe Kim: Who else thinks it's a $100?Who thinks its $2?
你们会很惊讶的 You'd be surprised
观众中所有的心理学家肯定都知道 that all the psychologists in the audience know that
是收到两美元的人会觉得这项研究更加有趣 $2 will make you rate this study as being much more interesting.
原因就是我们都是好人 And the reason for that is that we are all good people,
你们都不会撒谎对吧? you're not going to lie right?
但如果我付给你一百美元 But if I paid you $100
那好像就说明了为什么你撒了谎 that kinds of explained why you lied
但如果我只给了你两美元而你仍然同意撒谎 but if I only paid you $2 an yet you still agree to lie
很显然你不是为了这两美元而撒谎 对吧? you obviously didn't do it for the $2 right?
你肯定是因为你真的 You must have done it
觉得这个有趣才那么说的 because you actually believe it was interesting.
所以这就是一个与直觉得到的结果完全相反的例子 So this is an example of a completely counter intuitive
你不能完全依靠常识来解释事情 finding that you can't necessary just explain with common sense
这也是一个心理学中很有力的例子 and it's a really powerful example from psychology.
这可能也可以帮我们解释 This might also explain,help us to explain
为什么我们更珍惜需要经历难关 why we particularly value membership into an organization
才能得到的身份 where there is a lot of hurdles for us to get through to.
如果你需要为了进某一个俱乐部 If you have to wait a long time
或者餐厅等很长时间 那么一定是有原因的 to get into a specific club or restaurant there must a reason,
它一定棒极了 对吗 ？it must be so good, right?
好的 现在让我来给你一个地理学的例子 Okay, let me give you another example from geography,
来解释为什么常识可能不是办法 on why common sense is not necessarily the way to go.
这是一个非洲大陆的轮廓 This of course is a silhouette of the continent Africa.
这是北美学校的课堂上经常用到的一种地图 Here's Africa on a very popular map used
叫做墨卡托投影法地图 in North American classrooms, called a Mercator Projection Map.
你能看出非洲 So can you see the relationship
和其他大陆的关系吗? between Africa and all the other continents.
让你惊讶的可能是 What may surprise you is that
北美很擅长认识 North Americans are very good at
各大陆的大小 understanding the shape of continents
却不太会测量他们的相对大小 but they are very poor at estimating the relative size of continents.
所以你马上就可以看出这地图其实是不准确的 So you can tell right away from this graphthat it's a bit skewed,
在这上面看起来非洲和南美洲是差不多大的 it looks like Africa and South America are about the same size,
欧洲和这里的南美洲 it looks like Europe and South America here
也是差不多大的 are about the same size
但当然 你们知道 南美是比欧洲大的 but of course you know that South America is larger than Europe.
还有一个比较是 The comparison I want ask you is that
格林兰岛和非洲看起来差不多大 Greenland looks about the same size of Africa
但非洲其实是更大的 but I can tell you that Africa is larger,
我的问题就是 my question for you is
非洲比格林兰岛大几倍? how many times larger is Africa relative to Greenland?
两倍还是三倍?四倍?五倍? Is it two and a half times? Is it four times? Five times?
七倍半?还是十四倍? Seven and a half times? Or fourteen times larger?
好 现在想想这个问题 Alright, think about this for a second
我们一会儿要投票 and then we'll have a little bit of a vote.
谁觉得 Who thinks that
非洲比格林兰岛大两倍半? Africa is two and half times larger than Greenland?
好的 谁觉得是四倍?五倍? Okay. Who thinks it's four times? Who thinks it's five times?
这个答案好像更受欢迎些 七倍半? Bit more popular answer. Who thinks it's seven and a half times?
谁觉得是十四倍? And who thinks it's fourteen times?
正确答案是十四倍 It's actually fourteen times larger
人们知道后觉得很震惊 and most people are shocked to learn that
非洲的面积是格陵兰岛的十四倍 Africa is fourteen times larger than Greenland
但这其实并不神奇因为你从来没见过这样的地图 and it's not surprising because you've never seen a map like this
这叫彼得投影法地图 This is called the Peters projection map,
它准确地描绘出了每个大陆的面积 which accurately portrays the total surface area of a continent
你可以看到非洲是 and you can see here that Africa is,
远远大于格林兰岛的 well it doesn't show up very well here,much larger than Greenland
而这个地图没有展示给你的 What this map doesn't show you is
是因为制作地图而牺牲掉的大陆的真正形状 the proper shape to of the continents
所以我想说的一点就是 that was sacrificed to make this type of map.
地图只是一个我们所居住的 So one point that I want to make here is that
三维世界的一个模型 a map is really just a model of the 3 dimensional world that
模型都有限制的 we live in and models have limitations,
它们也可以影响你对于其余数据的感知 models can also influence how you perceive that rest of the data.
所以 如果你对世界的所有认识 So for example if all you knew about the world
都来自于墨卡托投影法地图 was from a Mercator Projection Map
你会对大陆的形状有个精确的感知 you'd have an accurate understanding of the shapes of continents
但你不会认识到 but you would not have an accurate idea of the relative sizes
各大陆的相对大小 of the continents.
但是如果你的认识 Now if all you knew about the world
都来自于彼得投影法地图 was from a Peter's Projection Map
你能对大陆的形状有准确认识 you'd have an accurate idea of the relative size of continents
却不能了解 but you would not have
它们的实际形状 an accurate idea of the actual shapes of the continents.
而如果你的认识源于这两种地图 Now if all you knew about the world
你可以会想 was from these 2 types of maps you might assume that
这就是极限了 this is the top of the world
但这仅仅是另一种地图制造者的习惯而已 but that's just another convention of the mapmaker.
这是浩博戴尔投影法地图 This is Hobo-Dyer Projection Map,
你们中的一些人可能觉得这很滑稽 which may look funny to some of you
因为这看起来是一个倒过来的世界 because it looks like an upside down world,
但从太空看来 这是最合理不过的地图了现在 but seen from space this is just as legitimate a map
如果你所知道的都来自这些类型的地图 as any other map.
现在 如果你所知道的 Now if all you knew about the world
都来自这些类型的地图 was from these types of maps
你可能还没意识到 you might not realize that
麦克马斯特大学是宇宙的中心 McMaster University is the center of the universe
这个地图正如其他地方 and this map is just as legitimate as any of the other land,
其他地图一样准确 any of the other maps that I've shown you.
所以 我在这想说的是 So a couple of points I wanted to make here is that
平面的地图仅仅是代表这个三维世界的模型 flat maps a just models that represent the 3 dimensional world
它们有很多限制 and they have limitations.
二 地图可以影响你认知世界的方式 Secondly they can influence how you perceive the world,
如果你只看过一种地图 if you've only seen one type of model
那么它很可能影响你看整个数据的方式 that is probably going to influence how you see the entire data set.
那么 也许我们不会用常识了 Okay, so maybe we wont use common sense,
让我们转向逻辑推理 lets move on to reasoning and logic.
逻辑推理是这样的 So reasoning and logic work something like this,
如果A和B是真的 那么C也一定是真的 if A and B are true then C must also be true,
有些人认为这些逻辑推理的重要组成要素 and there are those,are strong components of logic
会引你误入歧途 and there are those who think it could lead you astray.
我现在要讲一个例子 And I'll give the example that
这个例子在乔治布什刚刚当选为总统的时候我就讲过 I first talked about when George Bush was president,
现在我依然认为与之相关 but I still think it has some relevance.
现在 我要用一个例子来证明 I'll give you the example where we can make,
我们怎样可以区分真相和逻辑 we can distinguish between truth and logic.
第一个例子 A说法是 So example one statement A says that
所有的总统都是好心肠的 all presidents are warm blooded.
B说法是乔治布什是总统 Statement B, George W. Bush is President,
那么他就是好心肠的 therefore George W. Bush is warm blooded.
我们发现A说法是正确的 Turns out that statement A is true,
B说法是正确的 那么得出的结论 statement B is true and the conclusion reached in statement
C也是正确的 C is also true.
这是一个合理的论点 但现在我要给你另一个例子 This is a valid argument, but I'll give another example.
A说法:所有的耶鲁毕业生都是好心肠的 A, all Yale graduates are warm blooded,
乔治布什是热心肠的 George W. Bush is warm blooded,
因此他是耶鲁的毕业生 therefore George W. Bush is a Yale graduate.
在这个例子中 A案例是正确的 In this case statement A is true,
B案例是正确的 statement B is true
结论C同样是正确的 and the conclusion reached in statement C is true,
但这是个不合理的论证 but it's actually an invalid argument.
因为结论不是由论据得出的 This conclusion does not follow from the first two statements.
最后 所有的总统都是由大选产生的 And finally,all presidents are elected by winning the popular vote
乔治布什是民主选举产生的 George W. Bush was democratically elected president,
因此他也是 therefore George W bush was democratically elected President
由大选民主选举产生的 by winning the popular vote.
这个例子中 In this case
没有一个说法是正确的但这却是一个合理的论证 none of these statements are true but it is a valid argument.
所以 我们必须要搞清楚 So there's a distinction that
事实和逻辑合理性之间的区别 we have to make between truth and logical validity
其中 逻辑的一个问题就是 and one problem with logic is that
我们根本不知道什么是真实的 we still don't know what is true,
而我们又必须从至少 we have to start with at least one statement that's true before
一个真论点开始推理 we can move on.
好的 很显然 科学的方法才是我们真正应该采取的 Okay, obviously the scientific method is the way to go
科学家们会使用这样几个科学定律 and there are a few rules of engagement that
来保证他们做出的结论是可信的 scientists use to make sure that they make sound conclusions.
一个叫做简约法 One is called parsimony
这说的是所有的东西都是平等的 and this ideas that all things being equal
我们会用最简单的方法来解释数据 we are going to take the simplest explanation that
没必要搞麻烦了 best explains the data,no need to get complicated,
我们将从最简单的东西开始 we will start off very simple and if that
若这样就能解释所有的东西 explains everything,it's fine.
第二 科学家们是很保守的 Secondly scientists are quite conservative,
我们不会轻易地下疯狂的结论 we don't jump to crazy conclusions,
你们经常会在报纸上读到一些 in the newspapers you read about studies all the time that are,
可以在一夜之间改变你命运的研究 could change your life overnight,
通常 科学家们对这些东西都是很具有怀疑精神的 scientists typically are very skeptical about these things
他们一定要看到相关数据 and they'll have to see the data.
第三是普遍性 我们在大学里工作 Third is generalizability, we work in the university,
在实验室里工作 我们收集数据 然而我们的假设是 we work in labs,we collect data but our assumption is that
所有我们在自己的实验室中的发现 what we're finding here in our labs
和发表的文章 and our reports in journal articles
最终都会 will eventually lead to results that
普及到民众中去 can be generalized to applications in the public
其中的一些东西我们可能自己都还没意识到 some of these things we might not even realize yet,
但这就是我们在做的东西 and these are things that we are working on
但我们假设这些东西 but we assume that what we learn here also applies
也会在大学之外的真实世界中得到应用 in the real world outside the university.
所以我讲到了 So I talked a bit about
科学是如何不同于常识的 how science is different from common sense,
那就是 我们可以通过一系列的观察 it's,the power is that after seeing a series of observations
形成某种理论并且发掘科学的可测试的假设 we can form a theory and then develop specific testable hypothesis,
可以得出真正有趣的结果 that can lead to really interesting results,
我想告诉你们所有的这些 and I just want to tell you about one of these.
这是来自麦克迈斯特大学的 This is a study from Jeff Norman's group
杰夫诺曼的小组的一项研究 at the McMaster University.
假设我有一些护理学生 Imagine that I have some nursing students
我想教给他们 and want to teach them about the relationships
人手中的骨骼的关系 between the bones in your hand
那么我们可能有很多不同的方法可以做这件事 and there might be a couple of different ways that we do this.
一个可能是我直接给学生们看经典的图表 One might be I could just show the students classic diagrams
让他们在这种二维的图表中 where they're just two dimensional diagrams,
前前后后 看到所有的骨骼 front and back, that show all the bones and that could be
这可能是最老的办法 the old way to do it.
我也可以对另外一组学生 I could present another group of students,
使用高科技的教学方法 where I present them with a high tech solution,
让他们看到三维的可以动的手 where there is a 3-D animated hand and it shows
展示所有骨骼之间的关系 all the relationships of the bones
但在现实中 but in real time and space
你们可以用这种方法来观察各个骨骼之间的关系 and you could see their relationship with another that way.
如果你做一个测试 If you test them
可能很多人都会觉得肯定是 many people might assume that of course
高科技的方法可以带给人们 this high tech solution must lead to better understanding
对于手的骨骼关系更好的理解 of the relationship between the bones in the hand.
然而事实上恰恰相反 But in fact we find the opposite.
特别是当一个人对于手的转速 Especially if a person does not have direct control
没有直接控制的时候 of the speed at which the hand rotates
实际上这对他们的认识和感知系统来说 it's actually very taxing on their,
是很繁重的劳动 attentional and cognitive systems
当护理学生进行此项知识的测试的时候 and it leads to worse performance on a test when nursing students
他们的表现 are actually asked to talk about the relationship between
也稍差一些 the bones in the hand
这项实验也可以 and this the experiment,this a result that would only
作为一种可以应用的结论 be known to us
当你想用科学方法 if you actually run an experiment so
实施某种实验的时候 another plus for scientific method.
我想告诉大家另一个我碰到的有趣的故事 I'll tell about one other interesting storythat I came across,
这是关于沃伦和马歇尔的故事 it's a story of Warren and Marshall,
他们几年前在麦迪逊 who were awarded,who were awarded
被授予了诺贝尔奖 the Noble prize in Madison just a few years ago.
他们对于消化溃疡的原因做了研究 They did research on the cause of peptic ulcers
当时流行的假设是溃疡 and the prevailing hypothesis at the time was that
是由压力和节食造成的 ulcers were caused by a combination of stress and diet.
这种说法很根深蒂固 And this idea became so well ingrained that
很多科学家都相信 many scientists believed that
没有其他造成溃疡的可能性 there could be no other possibility to causing ulcers,
但他们发现了数据中一些奇怪的东西 but they found some weird things in the data.
一个他们所做的观察是他们发现 One observation that they did make was that
不是所有的病人都有导致溃疡的 not all patients had this combination of stress
压力和节食因素 and diet that could lead to ulcers
但当他们仔细研究活组织检查的样本时 but when they looked carefully at samples from biopsy's,
他们发现好像有一种叫做H. Pylori的细菌 they found that there seemed to be this bacteria called H. Pylori
很多病人都携带这种细菌 that was present in a lot of these patients.
当时看起来这只是一种巧合 So at this point it seemed it was just sort of a coincident
但如果他们仔细思考这些数据 but if they look back at the data and they look hard enough,
认真的研究 他们会发现 they found that sure enough almost every patient that
确实几乎每个病人都携带这种细菌 they looked really carefully they could find this H. Pylori,
他们发表了这些研究结果 so they published these results and scientists were very
但其他科学家们都持怀疑态度 skeptical
因为科学家们都是很保守的 他们这样做也是很合理的 because scientists are very conservative and rightfully so.
没人相信这会是真的 No one believed that this could be true
一部分原因是他们相信 and in part they thought that
他们已经有自己一系列具体的值得信任的东西了 we already have our specific set of beliefs,
那已经变成了我们所说的信条 it became what we call dogma
人们觉得没有什么其他的可能的解释 and people thought there could be no other possible explanation.
因为这些文章事实上被很多顶级期刊拒绝了 So their papers were actually rejected from a lot of the top journals.
直到有一天 Until one day
马歇尔觉得很沮丧 并决心要证明这个结论 Marshall was frustrated and he thought I'm going to prove this,
他告诉自己他不需要那些相互的关系 I don't need, I don't want just correlations
因此他让自己感染了那种细菌 so he consumed that bacteria himself,
记录下了接踵而至的溃疡 he documented the ensuing ulcer that formed
并通过打抗生素杀死细菌 and then he treated himself
让自己得以痊愈 by giving antibiotics that killed the bacteria and got rid of his ulcer
现在我们不再认为 and today we don't treat ulcers
溃疡是压力和节食的结果了 as a combination of stress and diet
你可以想像会有一个 and you could imagine there was a huge pharmaceutical
巨大的制药的减少 back drop to all this as well,
如果你有一个代理人处理这件事 if, so if you have and agent that dealt with,
而他是通过药物治疗的方式 那么那就错了 by drug therapy this way and its wrong
而且还将会有巨大的政治代价 there's a huge political cost to that as well.
因此 溃疡给我们的教训就是 So lessons from ulcers is that,
有些说法在我们的心中太过牢固 some ideas become so well entrenched,
甚至是对科学家们来说 even for scientists,
都很难看穿表象 接受新的观点 that it's really hard to see beyond that and accept new ideas
通常 一个很简单的假设 and often a very simple hypothesis best explains
就可以最好地解释数据 这个例子中更是如此 the data and that was certainly true in this case.
相互间的关系 And correlation,
尽管很有力 但和因果关系还是不尽相同的 though powerful is not the same thing as causation.
相互间的关系仅仅是两种刺激物直接的关系 Correlation is just a relationship between two stimuli
但并不能表明其中一个可以直接导致另一个 but it doesn't say that one directly causes the other.
我不是在建议你们都这样做 I'm not suggesting that you do this
但马歇尔亲身做了这个实验 but he took the matters into his own hand and he directly
这可以让结论 caused the ulcer to form,which can lead you to make a very
十分令人信服 strong conclusion.
所以一个著名的瑞士公证处的职员曾经说过 So a famous Swiss patent office clerk once said that
"我们所有的科学在事实面前都是原始的 "All our science measured against reality is primitive
幼稚的 但这仍是我们最宝贵的东西" and child like and yet it's the most precious thing that we have"
因此 这就是科学在我们当今社会所担任的角色 So that is the role science in our society today,
它帮助我们解决问题 to help us answer these questions
科学家们很保守 他们不一定会亲自 and scientists are very conservative they don't necessarily
去证实一些东西 但他们会尝试着消除错误的假设 go out to prove things but they try to eliminate false hypothesis
这可以用一句话来很好的总结 and that's best summarized by this quote that I found who's,
这是诗人伯特霍尔德 布雷克斯的话 from Berthold Brecks who is actually a poet he said that
科学的目的不是通向绝对的智慧 "The aim of science is not to open the door to infinite wisdom
而是限制了绝对的谬误 but to set a limit to infinite error."
这就是科学家们所做的事 And that is what scientists do.
现在来总结一下我上面所说的 So to sum up so far what I talked about I started off
我以一些现代社会中的谜团和事实开始我的演讲 by telling you some modern day myths and truths,
我用了这样一些例子 so lets recap
人们绝对用了多于十分之一的大脑 I definitely used more thanten percent of your brain,
年长的人比其他人耳朵要大 older men have larger ears than anybody else,
水无论在哪里都是向同样的方向流淌的 the water flows down the drain the same direction here and here,
即使巴特辛普森可能不同意 若你看过辛普森一家人的话 though Bart Simpson may disagree of you watch The Simpsons.
中国的长城只是所有太空中 The Great Wall of China is one of many things you can see on
能看到的东西中的一样 Earth from space
人的指甲在人死后就停止生长 your fingernails and hair definitely stop growing after you die,
你不能完全相信 you can't necessarily take the word of an authority
权威的一面之词 figure at face value
即使那是你的母亲 even it if it is your mother.
常识和逻辑可能会骗你 Common sense and logic can fail you,
但科学的方法带给我们的是客观的 scientific method provides us with something that
系统的审查 is very objective and gives a very systematic way of looking
数据的方法 at the data
但你仍然应该时刻保持着怀疑的态度 even then you should be a healthy skeptic.
那么我想问最后的一个问题 So I want to ask one final question,
你们可能有人看到关于2012年 some of you may read about 12-21-12, December 21st 2012 which may
12月21号是世界末日的传言 or may not the end of the world
我想问一下你们的观点 and I want to ask you couple of truth,
你们只要回答我是对还是错就行了 true and false questions and just tell me what you think.
第一个 玛雅日历是不是把 First of all is it true that on December 21st 2012 the Mayan
2012年12月21号这天作为5126年纪元的结束 "Long Count" calendar will mark the end its 5126-year era?
是真的吗?还是假的?谁觉得是真的?假的呢? Is that true or false? ? Who thinks it's true? False?
做出你自己的判断 Commit yourself.
好 这个其实是真的 Okay, it's actually true.
第二个 2012年12月21号这天 Okay second point, on December 21st 2012 the Earth,
地球 太阳和银河系的 the Sun and the center of the Milky Way Galaxy
中心将在一条线上 will be in alignment
这是真的还是假的? is that true or is that false?
谁觉得是真的?谁觉得是假的?这其实是真的 Who thinks that's true? Who thinks it's false? It's actually true
第三个 第一点和第二点会导致地球轴倾斜 Point three, points one and two together will lead the Earth
并结束我们的生命 to tilt of it's axis and end life as we know it
那是真的还是假的? is that true or false?
谁觉得是真的?有几个人 有一些相信的人 Who thinks it's true? A few people, a few believers,
有人觉得是假的吗? anyone think it's false?
好 有一些人理解了我的用意 很好 Okay I got through to some people, that's good.
实际上 有个叫做2012的电影要在这个十一月份上映 Fact, there's a movie coming out this November called 2012
里面包括了所有这种类型的因素 that capitalizes on all this hype
广告打的也很响 and they have a brilliant ad campaign.
他们告诉你去用谷歌搜索2012 They tell you to google search 2012,
因为当你这么做的时候 你得到的 because when you do that you come up with almost,
我昨天晚上就这样做了 I did that last night
几乎所有网站 and almost every website
都会告诉你关于2012的信息 gives you misinformation about 2012,
尤其是所谓的专家关于世界将如何毁灭的说法 particularly how the world will end in 2012 say experts.
所以那是真的 玛雅日历确实说 So it is true that the Mayan calendar does end it's 5th era
第五个纪元会在5126年内结束 at 5126 years
如果你看一下恒星图 that's true and if you check the star charts,
地球 太阳和银河系中心 it's also true that the Earth,the Sun and the center of the Milky
会在一条线上也是真的 Way will be in alignment
他们忽视了告诉你这种事情每年都会发生 what they neglect to tell you is that this happens every year.
每个冬至日 就像2012年12月21号 Every winter solstice on December 21st 2012 the Earth,
地球 太阳和银河系的中心都会在一条直线 the Sun and the center of the Milky Way are in alignment
所以并没有什么稀奇的 so there's actually nothing special about this,
但如果你上网看一下 but if you go on the internet
任何这些现象中的一种 and you read any of these sights,
你都可能会被说服 you could become convinced that
去为2012年12月21号做些准备 maybe you should make some plans for December 21st 2012.
这就是我今天需要讲的所有的东西了 And I think that's all I have to say today actually,
我讲的很少 I have a very short talk that
只是起个抛砖引玉的作用 I just wanted to set up the rest of the talks,
告诉大家下面的讲座都大概是怎样的 give you a preview of what's to come.
我们这个系列的讲座 The talks that we're going to be having in this series,
大都集中于让普通大众 very much focus on science as accessible to you,
易懂的科学 the general public.
下一周的讲座的主讲人是史蒂芬布朗先生 他在这里 The next weeks talk will be Steven Brown,right here,
他将会讲一些 他讲座的题目是 大脑的探戈舞 he'll be talking about, his talk is called Tango in the Brain:
舞蹈的神经基础 the neural basis of dance.
他也在我们的心理学部 He is in our department of psychology,
研究神经系统和行为 neuroscience and behavior,
他被麦克马斯特学院聘请 he's also appointed in the McMasters Institute for
研究思维和音乐 mind and music
这应该会是个非常引人入胜的讲座 and it should be a very fascinating talk
希望大家都来听 and I hope you can come out
现在我非常高兴可以回答大家的问题 and in the mean time I'll be happy to take any questions.
有什么问题吗 Any questions?