谢谢你 Joe Thank you, Joe.
感谢大家 Thanks everybody,
希望坐在后面的人能听到我 I hope you can hear me in the back,
因为 我更喜欢大点声讲课 because I prefer to yell
不大习惯用扩音器 rather than be amplified.
今天我们要讲的话题是 This is my topic today:
冒险 不平等与他杀 Risk-taking, Inequality and Homicide.
我们今天要讲的全部 Everything I'm going to tell you today
我用这东西指哪 where do I point this thing, does it matter?
我今天要讲的全部 Everything I'm going to tell you today
来自于一项研究 合作者是 is research conducted in collaboration with
Margo Wilson Margo Wilson.
我来概述一下 Let me give you a quick roadmap
今天的课程内容 of where I'm going.
首先 我想要解释 First of all I want to explain
这三个名词中的第一个 冒险 the first of these three nouns, "risk-taking".
我将解释 I'm going to explain
社会学家如何努力 how social scientists have tried to
使风险与冒险 make the concept of risk and risk-taking
成为可测量且可操作的概念 something measurable and operationalizable
正如结果差异 as outcome variance,
接下来 我们将谈到 and then talk about the question of
为什么在冒险方面有差异 why there is variability in risk-taking
或者说 正如人们所说 冒险态度 or as people sometimes say, risk attitudes
或者是 个体的冒险倾向 or risk propensity between individuals
和不同环境下的冒险倾向 and between circumstances.
我想要解释 I want to explain the links between
不平等 结果不平等 inequality, inequality of outcomes,
环境不平等 inequality of circumstances and
和竞争性的冒险的关系 competitive risk-taking.
这里的关键语是 And the punchline here is that
不同的结果引起 inequitable outcomes inspire, or,
或者说 激励 if you like, "incentivize"
冒险的竞争性策略 risky competitive tactics.
接下来 我们会讲到他杀 And then we get to homicide.
基本上来说 我会努力 And basically, I'm going to try
是大家相信 他杀率 and persuade you that homicide rates
事实上 直接反映了 actually are a pretty direct reflection of
当地 the local intensity of
人们的竞争性冒险密度 competitive risk-taking among men.
我会拿出证据 And I'll show you evidence
并援引其他证据 证明 and cite other evidence that
不平等是 inequality is a great predictor
他杀率 一个极大的预示 of homicide rates.
这是这堂课的目标 And that's what I hope to accomplish today.
经济学家 生物学家 心理学家 Economists, biologists, psychologists,
自称为 people who call themselves
决策理论家的人们 decision theorists,
他们的研究有一个共同的领域 they've pretty much all converged on
在本质上接近的风险概念 an essentially similar conception of risk
认为它是结果差异 as outcome variance.
如果有可供选择的政策 You know, if you have alternative policies,
可供选择的行为方式 alternative courses of action,
就有一个预期的价值 there's an expected value associated with
它与某一个决定相关 a particular decision perhaps.
一般预期结果 An average expected outcome.
但是 也有差异存在于 But there's also variability around
一般预期结果当中 that average expected outcome.
如果两种选择具有 And if two options present you with
同样的期望值 the same expected value,
但是结果有差异 but different variances in payoffs,
有更大差异的选择 then the one with the higher variance
是有更多风险的选择 is the riskier option.
这就是 That's exactly what,
对于在座 for those few of you in the room
积聚了足够资源 who have amassed enough resources
来遇见 to actually encounter people
像投资分析师这样的人 like investment analysts,
这就是他们所谈论的 that's exactly what they're talking about
他们在试着评估你的风险承受力 when they try and assess your risk tolerance
或者是对于风险的兴趣 or taste for risk
之后才会给你建议 before laying their advice on you.
这是简单的操作 Here's a simple operationalization of
来测定风险倾向和风险选择 risk preferences or risky choices
操作者是 devised by a couple of
实验经济学家 experimental economists,
Joyce Berg 和Tom Rietz Joyce Berg and Tom Rietz,
几位美国经济学家 a couple of American economists.
这个问题 Here's a problem that
我们在实验室用过几次 we've used in the lab quite a bit.
把人们带进实验室 You bring people into the lab.
大学生喜欢做 Undergraduates like things that they actually
能赚到钱的事情 get paid for,
所以他们很愿意参加 so they're pleased to participate in
这类活动 而且他们很认真 this sort of thing and they pay attention.
对人们说 You say to people,
选1到100中的一个数字 "pick a number between 1 and 100
结尾是5 也就是 5 15 25 35直到95 好 ending in 5, i.e. 5, 15, 25, 35 up to 95". Ok.
然后给他们 Then you present them with,
一个装满乒乓球的鱼缸 like, a fishbowl full of ping pong balls
或者是扑克牌 or poker chips or
或任何编号为1到100的东西 whatever numbered 1 to 100.
说 抽一个 You say, "draw one".
如果抽到的数字大 If it has a number higher
大于你选择的数字 than the number you chose you win.
你能赢多少取决于 How much you win depends on
你选的数字 the number you chose.
如果你选一个非常小的数字 So if you pick a really low number,
那就有很高赢的可能性 you have a really high probability of winning,
但是赢的钱不多 but you don't win much money.
如果你选择一个大一点的数字 If you pick a higher number,
赢的可能性就减小了 the probability that you win declines,
但是你赢的钱数却增加了 but the amount you'll win increases.
现在 他们面临着这样的选择 Now, people are confronted with this option
只有一次机会 你可能会想 just once, you might think,
如果我走进这个实验室 "oh, if I walked into the lab
面临这样的选择 and this was put in front of me,
他们之后会付给我钱 and they're going to pay me afterwards
前提是我赢 那我应该选择什么数字 if I win, what number would I pick?"
我们向人们展示这张表 We don't we show people this table,
这是全面的信息 and this is "complete information"
从某个角度来说全面的信息 from a certain perspective,
但是 我们不会给人们 but we don't actually give people,
并不是每个人可以 and not everybody can
计算出期望值 compute the expected values.
这是期望值 There's the expected values
不同选择的期望值 of these different options.
大家可能会注意到 And you'll notice,
它们成中间对称 they're symmetrical around the middle.
45和55有最高的期望值 45 and 55 have the highest expected value
而且是相同的期望值 and they're identical expected values,
但是 5和95也有相同的 but 5 and 95 also have identical
期望值 expected values,
平均23.75 23 and three quarters cents on average.
在这种情况下 It's just that in this case,
赢得$4.75的几率是二十分之一 it's one chance in 20 of winning $4.75
剩下有二十分之十九的可能什么都赢不了 and 19 chances in 20 of winning nothing.
在这种情况下 In this is case,
有二十分之十九的可能赢0.25$ it's 19 chances in 20 of winning a quarter
有二十分之一的可能什么也赢不了 and 1 chance in 20 of winning nothing.
在这张幻灯片上该放 And what I didn't put on this slide
而没有放的是 but I should have,
根据我所说的差异 given what I said about variance,
是结果差异 is the variance in payoff
在不断增加 increases across this whole
由最低增加到最高 from lowest to highest.
所以 So, you know,
5和95有相同的期望值 5 and 95 have identical expected value,
但是 这个选择的结果差异 but the variance associated with this choice is,
有300多倍高于 like, more than 300 times higher
这个选择的结果差异 than the variance associated with this choice.
就算是这两个 And even these two, if you like,
这两个期望值 these two expected value
极大化选择 maximalizing options, you know,
你可能会说 you might say
它们差不多 it's a bit of a wash between them,
但是这个的差异 but this one has approximately
是那个差异的 1 and a half times the variance
1.5倍 that this one has.
所以 So, if you like,
45是更加安全的期望值 45 is a safer expected value
比55要安全 maximizing choice that 55.
所以 我们操作风险 Ok, so we operationalize risk
将它作为结果差异来操作 as outcome variance.
现在 决策科学家一般 Now, decision scientists commonly
做出这样的区分 make this distinction.
他们将风险与不确定进行区分 They distinguish risk from uncertainty.
这样做的原因是 And the reason they do that is
很实际的 actually a pragmatic one,
也就是 你可以做一个 it's that you can do
精确地最佳分析 分析一下什么决定 a precise optimality analysis of what choices
人们 引号 应该做出 people, quote, "should make",
如果你知道了结果 if you have known payoffs
知道结果的可能性 and know payoff probabilities,
但是如果存在不确定 but if there's uncertainty,
那么这个分析就不是很清晰 then it's less clear.
这就是为什么 This is the reason why
要做出决定 有一本声望很高的期刊 there's a decision venerable decision journal
叫做 风险与不确定性期刊 called "The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty".
风险与不确定性是不同的 Risk and uncertainty are different things
对于很多决策理论者来说是这样 in the minds of many decision theorists.
事实上 如果你说 And, indeed, if you talk about
不确定性下的决策制定 decision making under uncertainty
并且使用的是 风险这个词 and you use the word "risk",
有些人会说 somebody's going to say,
那不是风险 你用错了词 "that's not risk, you're misusing the word".
有点混乱 Just sort of dopey because
因为你对这个词的使用像是一个说英语的人 you're using it like an English speaker
而非决策理论家 instead of a decision theorist.
风险同危险也有区别 People also distinguish risk from danger.
风险必须是 You know, a risk has to be
单一货币中的结果差异 an outcome variance in a single currency.
如果你觉得一个选择是风险选择 If you're talking about a risk choice in which,
这个选择有风险 是因为 oh, it's risky because, you know,
你可能会得到很大的收益 you might get a big payoff,
但也可能会受到伤害 but you might get hurt.
不 那不是风险 Oh no, that's not risk either,
那是危险 that's "hazard" or something.
其中的原因是讲求实效的 And again, the reason for that's pragmatic.
这是一个最佳分析 It's an optimality analysis
需要一些普通的回报方式 requires some sort of common payoff currency.
人们不知道 要怎样进行 People don't know what the hell to do with
情况的量化分析 the quantitative analysis of the circumstance
在这种情况下 人们可以选择 where people are opting for
或多或少的可能回报 greater or lesser potential payoff
或者是或多或少的手上风险 or greater or lesser risk of injury
对此进行分析 as going along with it.
他们需要 You know, they need
一种普通的回报方式 来试分析有效 a common payoff currency to make sense of it.
对于达尔文主义者来说 To good Darwinians,
我们都处于200周年 as we all are in this bicentennial year,
这些区分是 these distinctions are kind of
人为且混乱的 artificial and dopey.
在真实世界中 In the real world,
在缺少 in the sort of absence of
人类操作的可能性游戏中 human-engineered games of chance,
回报和可能性在本质上来说 payoffs and probabilities are essentially
不会准确地呈现 never known precisely.
那么 And for that matter,
投资分析师不会伪称它们的准确性 the investment analyst wouldn't pretend
他们不会 即使是在现代 they were either, even in the modern,
人为的环境之中 artificial circumstance,
可能一些分析师会伪称 well, maybe some of them would,
但是他们应该受到法律的制裁 but they should be in jail.
他们不可能准确地知道 They're never known precisely,
但是自然选择和个体经验 but natural selection and individual experience
都会为有机体武装上 can both equip organisms with
所谓的期望 带引号 what you might call "expectations", in quotes.
有了对于回报明确的期待 With explicit expectations about payoffs
和回报可能性明确的期待 and payoff probabilities
个体便会有选择地 that you would be selective to
根据期待行动 act in accordance with.
进一步来说 And, furthermore,
回报方式的问题 the problem of payoff currency
被带有进化观念的人回避了 is kind of obviated by evolution-mindedness
因为 最终 because, ultimately,
不管谈论的是 卡路里 whether you're talking about calories
还是交配机会 or mating opportunities or
还是受伤或死亡的风险 risk of injury or death,
你是把它们都混在了一起 and you're mixing them all together
在同一分析中混在了一起 in the same analysis,
预期适应结果 it's expected fitness consequences
才是一般回报方式 that are the common currency
这关系到 自然选择如何 that relate to how natural selection
作用于回应倾向 acts on tendencies to respond.
希望大家明白 If you get me I hope.
让我们回到主题 Anyway, away from abstractions,
还记得那个选择吧 back to remember the little choice
就是我想大家展示的那个 I showed you.
这数据来自于McMaster的学生 Here is some data from McMaster's students.
257个学生 257 McMaster's students
有机会做出选择 given a chance to make that choice
我之前向大家展示过 I showed you earlier,
5是最安全的 where you'll recall, 5 is the safest,
但是你最多能赢0.25 but the most you can win in a lousy quarter.
95是最有风险的 95 is the riskiest choice
和5有相同的期望值 with the same expected value as 5.
45和55是 45 and 55 are
期望值最大化的选择 the expected value maximizing choices,
这些是人数 and these are just the numbers of people,
男性和女性 men and women,
谁选了这些数字 who chose each of these numbers.
大家能注意到 And you'll notice women outnumber men
在低风险的选择中 女性数量超过男性 down here in all the sort of low-risk choices
男性数量超过女性的是 and then men outnumber women over here
所有高风险的选择 in all the high-risk choices,
这是性别不同 there's a sex difference.
这最终 And it shakes out,
从这种规模上来看 是个很小的不同 as a mean difference of this magnitude.
在这个数据表中 In this data set,
这确实是值得注意的结果 I mean, this was quite a remarkable result
我不会把家庭农场赌在上面 and I wouldn't bet the family farm on
赌它是可以复制的 这个数据表 it being replicable, but, in this data set,
如果大家看一下 if you just look at
期望值最大化的选择 相等 the expected value maximizing choices, even.
如果你说 那是正确的 If you said that's "correct",
恰当分析这个情况的人 people who've analyzed this situation properly
都应该选择 should have chosen
一个期望值最大化的选项 an expected valuemaximizing choice,
但是他们还有两个选择 but they've still got two options.
如果我们看一下那些 Even if you just look at those,
仍有很大的性别差异 there's still a highly significant sex difference,
女性倾向于选45 with women preferring 45
男性倾向于选 55 and men preferring 55.
所以 正如我所说 So, as I say, that's, you know,
这很值得注意 that's fairly remarkable and,
我不想指望 you know, I wouldn't want to count on
这些细小的差别可以复制 that kind of subtlety being replicable,
但是 这个现象 也就是男人接受 but the phenomenon that men accept risk
金融和其他领域的风险的 in financial and other domains
程度高于女性 to higher degrees than do women,
在一些分析中 and in some analyses,
即使控制男性和女性 even controlling for men and women
使用可比较的方式 of comparable means and so on,
这个结论也能经得起考验 that's pretty robust.
风险选择中的性别差异 Sex differences in risky choice
是稳固的 are pretty robust.
同样的 我不会向大家展示数据 Also, I won't show you the data,
但是 在接下来的实验中 but in a subsequent experiment,
Margo和我发现 男性的选择 Margo and I found that men's choices
在有观众的时候更加冒险 become riskier when there's an audience,
当他们需要 when they have to
在公众面前宣布他们的选择时 announce their choices in public.
无论观众是男 And whether that audience is men,
是女 还是男女都有 women or mixed, all of them,
这都使男性的选择更加冒险 makes men's choices riskier.
这对于女性的选择没有任何影响 It has absolutely no effect on women's choices,
女性不会受观众的影响 having an audience,
她们会做出一样的选择 they make the same choices
正如她们单独做出选择时 as they would if they were alone.
所以 这就暗示 可能冒险的选择是 So that's a hint that maybe risky choice is
某种炫耀 somehow a display
或至少对于男人来说是有社会助长的 or at least socially facilitated in men.
这到底是什么意思 What that all about?
为什么会有性别差异 Why is there sex difference.
好 这是进化论思维 Ok here's your evolution-minded spin
对于所有这些的解释 on all this.
这里是为什么 Here's the reason why
像我这样的人 somebody like me
会预料到有性别差异 would have anticipated a sex difference
在这样面有性别差异 in something like this.
达尔文主义的选择 Darwinian selection,
自然和性别选择 natural and sexual selection.
我得说 这在很大程度上是 That's, I'd say, largely a matter,
有些人可能说 完全是 somebody might argue entirely a matter,
这是同性竞争者之间的 of differential reproduction
差别繁殖 among same sex competitors.
我的意思是 What I mean by that
在一个种群中 is that within a population,
男性 参与 males are engaged in
某种零和竞争 a kind of zero-sum contest
目的是繁殖后代 for the paternity of future generations,
一个人的收获是另外一个人的损失 one guy's gain is another guy's loss.
男性之中要分出 There's so much paternity to be carved up
这么多的父系血统 among all the males.
女性则参与到 And the females are engaged in
相同的母性竞争中 a parallel contest over maternity,
到目前为止 二者听起来还是相似的 so so far things sound similar.
但是在很多种族中 But in many species,
包括古老的 including ancestral, and for that matter,
和现代的智人 modern homosapiens,
男性 有更高的 males have a higher ceiling of
适应潜能 高于女性 potential fitness than females.
就像是 As, you know,
那个古老的例子 witness the hoary old example of
谁有最多的孩子 who's the guy who had the most kids,
残暴的Mulay Ismael Mulay Ismael the Bloodthirsty
有888个孩子 with an 888 kids,
有最多孩子的女性是谁 who's the woman who had the most kids?
某一个惊人的多产俄罗斯女人 Some astonishingly fecund Russian woman
多次生育 共有69个孩子 who had 69 through many multiple births.
生产27次 Through 27 confinements
都是双胞胎或三胞胎 that were all twins or triplets.
但是 尽管888和69都令人震惊 But still, 888, as impressive as 69 is,
888却高一些 888 is higher.
正如 男性 And, almost as a corollary of males
有更高的适应潜能的推断 having a higher ceiling of potential fitness,
男性也更有可能 没有子嗣 they're also more likely to die childless.
不管是888还是69 Ok, nevermind 888, 69,
这有点像是现代变异 these are sort of modern aberrations,
但却高度相关 but more selectively relevant circumstances
贯穿整个人类进化 throughout human evolution.
因此 It's going to be the case that for these reasons,
同性别间的竞争 intrasexual competition tends to be
在男性中更加激烈 more intense among males
甚于女性 than among females.
我的意思是 And all I mean by this ,really,
这几乎是一个同意反复 it's almost a tautology,
竞争的激烈程度 意思是 what I mean by intensity of competition is that
结果的差异更大 there's higher variance in outcomes
对于男性来说是这样的 among males.
这些数据表明 Illustrated by these data,
或者说 这组数据表明 or this boiling down of data
平均100位男性的命运 in the fates of an average cohort of 100 males
和100位女性的命运 and 100 females
在自然繁殖的种族中 in a natural fertility human populuation,
卡拉哈里沙漠的一个种族中 根据 the Kalahari San, as studied by
多伦多大学Nancy Nancy Howell from the University of Toronto.
一生能繁殖 There's lifetime reproductive success of
100个女性和100个男性 100 newborn females and 100 newborn males.
女性中的一半 Even females, just over half of them,
都有可能到死也不能繁殖 will expect to die without producing a child,
这主要是因为 and that's largely due to the fact that
在胎儿成熟之前有很大的死亡率 there's very high death before maturity
还有 and, indeed,
在新生儿幼年的死亡率也极高 death in the first couple years of life.
然后就有了这样一个分布 And then there's a distribution like this,
女性孩子的最大值 and the maximum number of children
是9 produced by any woman is 9.
幸存者的中间值 And the central tendency
大概是4或5 among the survivors is 4 or 5.
对于繁殖后代的女性来说 Among those who produce children at all,
是4或5 it's 4 or 5.
男性有更大的可能性 Guys have a higher probability,
62%相对于52%到死也没有孩子 62% as opposed to 52% of dying without issue ,
但如果他们有孩子 but if they have any kids,
那就偏斜态地更多一点 it's skewed out a little farther.
在这个社会只有一点偏态 Just a little farther in this society,
现在一夫多妻比较罕见 但仍存在 where polygamous marriage is rare, but occurs.
地位较高的人 偶尔 High status guys occasionally
会同时有两个妻子 have two wives simultaneously,
更常见的是 男性完全控制繁殖 more commonly monopolize the reproduction
相继地控制几位女性的繁殖 of a couple of women successively.
所以后代的中间值 So the mean number of offspring,
这只是基本的替代水平 this is basically replacement level,
人口增长非常缓慢 a population growing very slowly.
中间值对于女性来说稍高一些 The mean number's slightly higher for women
比对男性高 因为 than for men because
出生男婴的数量高于出生女婴的数量 there are slightly more males born than females,
所以 后代的平均数量 and therefore the average number of offspring
占男婴的比重低于 per newborn male has gotta be lower than
占女婴的比重 the average number of newborn females
因为 出生时的性别比是51比49 because of the sort of 51:49 sex ratio at birth,
希望大家能够理解 if you get me.
但是 更重要的是 差异 But the variance, more importantly,
对于男性来说比对与女性来说要更高 is higher in males than in females,
这就是我们为什么说 and that's what we mean
繁殖继承差异 by saying reproductive success variance
在男性中更高 is higher in males,
繁殖的上限更高 the ceiling on reproduction is higher,
死无子嗣的可能性也更高 the probability of dying childless is higher,
所以 男性面临的竞争更加激烈 and so males are in more intense competition
为了争夺资源 than females for the resources,
繁殖后代 以及 the reproduction and
繁殖机会 the opportunity to reproduce.
大家可能都知道 And as you probably all know,
男人的一生 几乎所有的比率 men tend to die off of just about everything
都比女性高 at higher rates at all ages than females do.
有人认为这是因为 Arguably because of
选择的结果 the selective consequences of this.
这张幻灯片 是Margo和我 This is a slide that Margo and I
从原始数据中总结出来的 generated from raw data
这些数据是很多年前发表的 是美国的数据 published many years ago, from U.S. data.
这是男性的死亡率 This is the relative death rate by males
除于女性的死亡率 divided by that of females.
所以 如果在既定年龄 So if men and women at a given age,
若是 男性和女性 在某个既定年龄 if males and females at a given age
因为既定原因死亡 were dying of a given cause
人均死亡率是一样 at the same per capita rate,
或者是每一万人的死亡率是一样 or at the same rate per 10,000 people,
那么这个值就是1 then the value here would be 1.
可能 在九十岁时会下降到1 Maybe drops to 1 out here in 90 year olds
我是指总死亡率和因病而死的死亡率 on total mortality and disease-related mortality,
但是 除此以外 这个表中的每一个点 but otherwise every point in this figure
都大于一 is above 1.
男性的死亡因素既包括 内在因素 Males die of both so-called internal
又包括外在因素 在任何年龄 and external causes at all ages
比率都比女性高 at higher rates than females.
有趣的是 这个不同 Interestingly, this difference,
男性的总体死亡率 this is total mortality in the male here,
在成年初期 差异最大 this difference is maximal in young adulthood,
这是因为 繁殖竞争 arguably when reproductive competition
或者说 or the competition for
未来繁殖可能性的竞争 future reproductive potential
在年轻男性中最为激烈 is most intense among young males.
更加极端的是 And it's much more extreme
所谓的外在死亡 for so-called external mortality
意外 自杀 他杀 (accident, suicide, homicide),
主要还是意外 and this is mostly driven by accident,
事实上 意外的可能性 actually, it's a much bigger cause of death
高于自杀和他杀 than suicide and homicide.
外在死亡因素的可能性大于 It's much bigger for external mortality
内在死亡因素 than for internal mortality.
这是一个典型的模式 This is a typical pattern.
这里曲线比较平滑 因为 The curves are smooth here because
美国是个大国 the U.S. is a big country.
我会向大家展示 I'll just show you
一些最近的加拿大数据 天啊 some recent Canadian data woops.
加拿大数据到哪去了 What happened to the recent Canadian data?
找不到了 It's gone. They are gone.
好吧 相信我 它们和美国的看起来差不多 Ok. Believe me, it looks the same,
但是 稍有杂乱 but a wee bit noisier
因为加拿大人口较少 because it's a smaller population.
不像哪一张幻灯片 I didn't take that slide out.
我们将会更加迷惑 Nah, we'll just get more confused-er
我们将更加迷惑 we'll just get even more confused.
这是很强的模式 This is a robust kind of pattern.
正如我刚说的 这条线 As I said, this pattern is driven here
主要是因为意外死亡 mostly by accidental death,
但是也包括他杀 but it also includes homicide,
我想要 开始 and I want to turn attention to
谈论他杀 talk about homicides.
这是三个数据表中的数据 Here are data from three data sets
是我和Margo收集的 that Margo and I amassed
在我们的研究生涯中收集的 during our research careers.
他们看上去可能是任意的 They may seem curiously arbitrary;
两个国家级的数据表 two national-level data sets
一个城市级的数据表 and one city-level data set.
为什么有一个城市级的呢 The reason there's a city-level data set here is
首先是因为 well, first of all,
芝加哥每年的他杀更多 Chicago has more homicides every year
高于加拿大或英国 than Canada or the U.K.,
所以 加上了芝加哥 so it's a nice big end.
但是 没有国家级的数据 But also, there are no national-level data
美国没有高质量的国家级的数据 of decent quality for the U.S.
美国有国家级的数据 The U.S. has national level data
人们也一直在分析 and people analyze them all the time
并且以它们为依据发表文章 and publish things based on them,
但是 这些数据是很糟糕的 but they're terrible
原因很多 for a combination of reasons
我之后可以告诉大家 I could tell you about later
主要是因为 that largely have to do with just, sort of,
机构内部的纷争 inter-agency squabbles in the U.S.
等其它相似原因 and stuff like that.
但是 有很高质量的城市级数据 But there are good city-level data sets.
芝加哥是一个 The Chicago one is one
我们为了收集数据 that we helped amass
花了很多时间 by spending a lot of time
在芝加哥警察局 in the Chicago police department,
阅读所有有记载的案例 going through all the recorded cases.
这些数据 基于 And these are based on all homicides
所有警察局记录在案的他杀 known to police, which, arguably,
无论 regardless of whether
他们是不是受到了制裁 they were successfully prosecuted,
所有记录在案的他杀 all homicides known to police
在这些案例中 in which they were known to be cases,
男性杀死与自己没有任何关系的男性 in which a man killed an unrelated man,
是上面的那一条曲线 in the upper curve in each case,
女性杀死与自己没有任何关系的女性 or a woman killed an unrelated woman,
是下面的那条曲线 in the lower curve in each case.
这些曲线看起来惊人地相似 These curves look remarkably similar,
尽管 如果看一下y轴 although, if you notice the y-axes,
我们能够 关于他杀率 there's some thing interesting
有一些有趣的发现 going on here about homicide rates.
这些是 These are
每一百万相同类别的他杀数量 homicides per million populace of that category
相同类别指的是相同的年龄和性别组 of that age-sex group per annum.
所以 加拿大的他杀率几乎 So homicide rates in Canada are close to
是英国的两倍 twice what they are in the U.K.,
这些数字 they are very much higher
在芝加哥更高 in the city of Chicago,
事实上 美国总体来说也很高 and indeed in the U.S. generally,
尽管不想这个那么夸张 although not as dramatically as this.
但是 性别差异 和年龄模式 But the sex difference and age pattern
是很经得起考验的 is pretty darn robust.
我想要谈论一下 And I want to talk about
这些他杀的种类 these kinds of homicides;
男性杀死不相关的男性 guys killing unrelated guys,
女性杀死不相关的女性 women killing unrelated women,
男性杀死不相关的男性 mostly just guys killing unrelated guys
是我想重点讨论的 is what I want to talk about.
这样是有理由的 And that's there's a rationale for that focus.
首先 First of all,
这种他杀占所有他杀中比例最大 this is the majority of all homicides
在美国 加拿大和英国都是这样 in the U.S. and in Canada and in the U.K.,
几乎所有地方都是这样 但并不是所有地方 almost everywhere. Not quite everywhere.
同时也是变数最大的组成部分 It's also the most variable component
他杀中变数最大的 of the homicide rate,
也就是说 在他杀率最高的地方 that is to say where homicide rates are high,
有更大比例的案例 there's a larger proportion of cases
都包括男性杀害不相关的男性 that involve men killing unrelated men.
在他杀率非常低的地方 Where homicide rates are very low,
就像是西欧国家 like in some Western European countries,
荷兰 斯堪的纳维亚半岛上的国家 in the Netherlands, in Scandinavia,
这些 then it's those
这些案例被遗漏了 those are the cases that drop out,
之后 剩下的就是 and then you're left with
相当大比例的案例 a relatively high proportion of cases
都是弑夫或杀妻或者是 that would be spousal homicides or
未成年妈妈杀婴 infanticides by teenage mothers
或其它种类 or these other sort of residual categories.
所以部分这些案例 So those cases start proportionally
在某些地方很盛行 to look very prevalent in places
在那些地方他杀率很低 where homicide rates are low,
但并不是因为 but it's not because
它们在那里更盛行 they're more prevalent there,
只是因为男男谋杀 it's just because the male-male ones
完全漏掉了 have dropped out completely.
所以 如果你想理解 So if you want to understand
他杀比率中的多变性 variability in homicide rates,
就必须理解多变性 you want to understand variability
在男性杀害不相关男性的多变性 in cases of men killing unrelated men.
这是他杀率组成成分中 That's the component of homicide rates
变数最大的 that varies the most.
人们确实想知道 And people do want to understand
他杀率中的多变性 variability in homicide rates, I mean,
最有趣的现象之一 在我看来 one of the most interesting phenomena, I think,
是最有意思的 well certainly one of the most interesting
对于他杀研究者来说是的 phenomena to homicide researchers,
我想 最有意思的现象 I think one of the most interesting phenomena
在社会科学领域中 真的是 in the social sciences, really,
不同国家间大规模的不同 is the massive differences across nations,
在不同地区 在死亡率方面的不同 across places in things like violent death rates.
我们说的不是 10% 20% 和30%的不同 We're not talking 10, 20, 30% differentials,
我们说的是很多重的不同 we're talking many-fold differentials
跨越国界的不同 across countries.
究竟是怎么回事 What's that all about?
所以 男性杀害男性 So guys killing other guys
而且被杀害的男性还不是他的亲戚 who are not their relatives,
这就组成了他杀的很大比例 which is the majority of all homicides.
我想要使大家相信 I want to pursuade you that
这些 显示了 these are a manifestation of
男男的竞争 male-male competition.
我想要使大家相信的办法 And the way I'm going to pursuade you
主要就是告诉大家 is mostly just by telling you, so
如果你花很多时间阅读 If you spend a lot of time reading
有关他杀的警方调查报告 police investigative reports on homicides,
就像我们做过的 as we've done,
就像是其他研究者在其它地方做过的 as other researchers have done in other places,
你会发现 you tend to find this:
主要背景 that the primary context
男人杀害其他男人的主要背景是 in which men kill other men is
某种社会竞争 some kind of social competition.
双方通常相识了 The two parties are usually acquaintanced,
尽管他们可能本是陌生人 although they might have been strangers
晚上一开始还不认识 at the beginning of the evening.
突然发生了一些事 如地位的挑战 There's often something like a status challenge,
有某种公开的侮辱 there's some sort of public insult, you know,
某人在酒吧里侮辱另外一个人 somebody disses somebody else in a bar
不知怎地 侮辱另外一个人 somehow insults the other guy
而且还有其他的旁观者 in front of witnesses,
通常 这些旁观者 very commonly witnesses
和两位都认识 who are acquainted with both of them.
通常 这是为了竞争一个女人 There's often rivalry over a woman,
就像是这幅木版画中展示的那样 as is nicely illustrated in this woodcut
作者是一位当代的巴西艺术家 by a contemporary Brazilian artist.
女人 她脸上的神情 Women the look on her face.
但 我离体了 But I digress.
我强调社会竞争 因为 And I stress social competition because
这些案例中的大部分 看起来都不是 most of these cases there doesn't appear to be
好的材料 good material rationale;
这不是一起抢劫 it's not a robbery,
不是 基于钱的敌对 it's not a money-based rivalry.
他们斗争的原因是 They're fighting over what you might call
无形的社会资源 尊重 intangible social resources of respect
地位 和等级 and status and hierarchical position
并且不被双方的熟人 and not being laughed at
嘲笑 by mutual acquaintances.
在美国 直到最近 In the U.S., you got, until recently,
每年至少有两万起他杀 at least about 20,000 homicides a year.
一万多起都是这类他杀 Over 10,000 are of this kind.
我讨论的是所有的他杀 And I'm talking about all homicides,
包括 连环强奸杀人犯 including the, you know, serial rapist killers
其他所有人都是受害者 and everybody else as victims.
如果不是这类案例 When the case is not of this sort,
第二种主要背景就是抢劫 the second main context is robbery.
我们可以把抢劫看做是 And robbery you could think of as
物质竞争 material competition
和社会竞争相对比 as opposed to social competition.
你有钱 我想要你的钱 You've got money, I want your money,
我杀了你 就有了你的钱 I kill you- I've got your money.
大家知道 It's you know,
什么能更具竞争性呢 what could be more competitive than that?
这种竞争性更加透明 It's even more transparently competitive
比犯罪学家通常说的 than what criminologists used to call
互相认识的人之间琐碎的吵闹更透明 "trivial altercation between acquainted men".
这真是个蹩脚的名字 Really lousy name
因为 一点都不琐碎 because there's nothing trivial about it
除了 明显的触发事件 except the ostensible triggering incident often.
这些都是危险的 These are very dangerous ways
与其他人竞争的方式 to compete with other guys.
向他们挑战 Sticking them up,
真刀真枪地打一架 having knife fights with them.
我的意思是 屋里的大部分男性 I mean most of the guys in this room
都和其他男性竞争 compete with other guys in,
方式比较绅士 对吧 you know, sort of gentler ways, right?
在女士面前说他们的坏话 You badmouth them to women,
试着让他们看起来愚蠢不堪 you try to make them look stupid
在特定社会背景下 in certain social contexts
他们不会拔刀相向 where they're not likely to pull a knife
想这样也不行 you hope.
所以 如果男性之间的竞争无处不在 So if competition among guys is ubiquitous,
有趣的问题 the interesting question
一个有趣的问题是 an interesting question is:
是什么因素致使他们不顾后果的冒险 what factors promote reckless risk-taking,
使用危险的手段 dangerous use of dangerous tactics
在竞争之中 in the competitive context?
让我们回到 And getting back to the same vintage of
大家听到的那曲音乐 the piece of music you were listening to
就是大家进屋时听到的 60年代的音乐 when you came in, sixties music,
事实上 我喜欢50年代的音乐 my stuff actually my stuff's fifties music,
但是 我们能在这首歌中找到答案 but. This guy got the answer in a song
在座可能会记得 那就是答案 some of you will remember. That's the answer.
当你一无所有时 "When you got nothin',
便没有什么可失去的 you got nothin' to lose".
谁对他人来说最危险 Who's going to be dangerous?
就是没有什么可以失去的人 It's the guy who's got nothing to lose
通过升级竞争手段 by escalating his tactics,
他们没有成功的希望 the guy who is on track for non-success
除非他们升级竞争手段 if he doesn't escalate his tactics of
参与社会竞争 social competition,
所以 他们准备好了升级手段 so he's prepared to escalate his tactics
进行社会竞争 of social competition.
比如说 失业 So for example, being unemployed
就是一个冒险因素 is a risk factor for homicide,
未婚也是 being unmarried is another one.
我将向大家展示一些数据 I'll show you some data.
在竞争环境中 不计后果的冒险 Reckless risk-taking in competitive contexts
增加了 前提是 竞争者 increases when competitiors
可以失去的相对较少 have relatively little to lose.
这些数据是 Here are some data that
Margo和我很多年前发布的 Margo and I published many years ago
是男性杀害不相关男性的比率 on rates at which men killed unrelated men
它和杀人者的年龄相关 in relation to the killers' age
也与他们的雇佣状况相关 这是底特律的数据 and employment status in the city of Detroit.
我们的第一个他杀研究 We did our first homicide research
就是在底特律做的 in the city of Detroit,
这是另外一个经历更多他杀的城市 another city which has more homicides
每年都多余加拿大的他杀数量总和 every year than the whole of Canada,
在这里做调查非常方便 it's handy.
而且 And at that time,
底特律警察局的副局长 the deputy chief of police in Detroit
恰巧是社会学的博士 happened to have a PhD in sociology,
他认为 and thought that
从警察局档案中做调查 doing research from police archives
是个好主意 was a good idea,
大部分的警察局副局长 which most deputy chiefs of police
不这么认为 所以我们非常高兴 do not think. So we were delighted,
打入了底特律警察局 and got into the Detroit police department.
这看起来可能很明显 And this may seem obvious:
未被雇佣的人更有可能 unemployed guys are more likely to
杀害不相关的人 kill another unrelated guy
比相同年龄的被雇佣的人可能性高 than employed same-aged guys
事实上 是所有年龄 除了青少年 at essentially all ages, except teenage years,
事实上 青少年可以说是一种人为规定的 and, actually, "teenage" is sort of an artifact
因为 未被雇佣 在这里意味着 because what unemployed means here
仍在上学 actually is "still in school".
所以 这有一个很大的社会经济的混淆 So there's a big socio-economic confound there
我们容易弄混 that our class confound there,
事实上 在学习时很容易弄混 well, there's a class confound everywhere,
这是我猜的 我的意思是 I guess, but I mean,
被雇佣 the meaning of being employed
和未被雇佣的意义是很不一样的 versus unemployed is different here.
未被雇佣并且 或者是个学生 Unemployed and/or a student here,
并没有相继关系 not subsequently.
这事实上是第一个显示 This was actually the first demonstration,
信或不信 believe it or not,
未被雇佣是一个风险因素 that being unemployed is a risk factor
有可能导致他杀 for committing homicide.
大家应该能注意到 And you notice,
这里还有一个年龄犯罪曲线 there's an age-crime curve nonetheless.
未被雇佣并不能完全解释 Unemployment status doesn't explain away
年龄的模式 the age pattern,
但是有很大的影响 but it has a whacking great influence.
未被雇佣者更有可能 Unemployed guys are more likely to get into
参与到口角当中 the kind of altercations
最终可能会有人死亡 where somebody ends up dead,
有人认为这是因为 他们的环境 arguably because their circumstances
就是如此 are such that, you know,
他们将生活环境 they perceive their life circumstances
看做可失去的少 而可得到的多 as entailing less to lose and more to gain
方式是 获得地位 by holding onto status, gaining status,
以及通过危险的方式竞争 competing in potentially dangerous ways.
当然 男性竞争的另外一个对象是 The other thing guys compete over, of course,
女人 is women.
我们还有其他人 We and other people
很久以前就知道 have known for a long time that
单身汉更有可能杀害 single men are more likely to kill
可能性大于同年龄的已婚者 than married men are or the same age.
但是 我们收集了大量的数据 But it took a lot of data collection
才能加上 to be able to add to this the data
离婚男子和丧妻者的数据 for divorced men and for widowed men.
他们比已婚男子危险 And they're nastier than married men, too.
现在 我们可以说 Now, you could say, you know,
首先 如果大家看到了 initially if you see
单身对已婚效应 the single versus married effect,
这并不是实验科学 this ain't experimental science,
实验 this is something to think about
在座的心理学家要做的 for the psychologists in the room.
因此 心理学家做实验 This is why psychologists do experiments.
你可能会觉得实验可能 Experiments may strike you as sort of
会使无聊的事情变得琐屑 boring trivializations of interesting things,
但是人们喜欢实验的是 but what people like about experiments is
你可以控制变量 you can control variables,
把人们分成不同的组 and assign people to groups and stuff like that.
我们可以测量一个变量的效果 You measure the effects of a variable
就像是现实世界的婚姻状况 like marital status in the real world,
老天知道 你在测量的 and God knows what you're really measuring
到底是什么的效果 因为这是自我指派的 the "effects" of, because it's self-assigned
并且和其他事情相关 and it's correlated with other things.
单身汉和已婚男子之间的不同 A difference between single and married men
不会影响 could reflect not that
婚姻能够使男子平静 being married pacifies guys,
这是我喜欢的解读 which is my preferred interpretation,
但是 那种男人 but just that the kind of guys
对女性没有吸引力 who can't attract a woman
是没有结婚 are the kind of guys who are out there
在酒吧互相残杀的 killing each other in bars, for example.
这之后 And then, you know,
是离婚男性 even adding in the divorced, you could say,
值得争议的是 离婚男性 well, arguably, the divorced
是已婚男性 are a selected subset of married men
下属的一个类别 who are violent jerks.
但 并不是他们的单身汉特性 And again, it's not their "singleness"
使得他们变得暴力 that's making them violent,
而是 他们的暴力使得 it's their violence that's making them,
他们单身 you know, serially single.
更有争议的是 That's a tougher argument to make
丧妻的人 on the widowers though.
这些人丧妻 并不是因为 These guys did not get widowed by
他们杀死了自己的妻子 killing their wives.
丧妻的人似乎又重新回到了 Widowed guys seem to snap back into
某种程度上的单身状态 single mode, too, in some sense,
他们更有可能对别人拔刀相向 becoming more likely to go get in a knife fight
比在酒吧中更容易和别人斗殴 in a bar than when they were married.
有些人认为 结婚有镇定的效果 Arguably, being married has a pacifying effect
对于男人来说是这样的 有内分泌数据 on men, and there's endocrinological data
其它的证据也 and other evidence that sort of is
对其进行了补充解释 complementary to that,
但是我想说 but I would say one, you know,
一种功能性的解释是 the sort of functional interpretation is that
有妻子的人有可以失去的 guys who have a wife have something to lose
无法进行男性与男性之间的竞争 by engaging in male-male competition
而且是通过危险的方式竞争 in dangerous ways.
没有妻子的人 可以失去的少 Guys who are wifeless have less to lose
处于更加绝望的环境之中 and are more desperate circumstances
更愿意 and are more willing to
升级他们的竞争策略 这种解读颇具争议 escalate their competitive tactics, arguably.
无论如何 这是一种 Anyway, that's one kind of
情况 class of circumstances
这有可能恶化 that would presumably exacerbate
竞争中不计后果的冒险 reckless risk-taking in competitive contexts.
另外一个是 因为结局差异 Another is just when the outcome variance
很大 我的意思的 is high. I mean that was
我说的是 what I was arguing about the concept of
我们将风险看做是结局差异 we measure risk as outcome variance.
当结局差异很大的时候 When payoff variance is high,
就有竞争的原因了 there's something to compete over.
当结局差异不大的时候 When payoff variance is low,
为什么还要对另外一个人拔刀相向 如果 why you gotta pull a knife on another guy if,
大家是斯堪的纳维亚人 you know, you're a bunch of Scandanavians
收入差异 who, you know, the income differential
最低收入和最高收入的差别 between the lowest quartile and top quartile
仅是两倍而非九倍 is only twofold instead of the nine-fold
不像其他地方一样 it is somewhere else. I mean,
相对平等的收入减少 relatively equitable outcomes reduce
危险竞争的激励机制 the incentives for dangerous competition.
它能够得到清晰地证明 通过 And this is most clearly illustrated by
这些数据 these kind of data,
通过它们 我们能够得到一个经济学家的 where you get a standard economist's
收入不平等 measure of income inequality,
我可以向大家解释 which I can explain to anybody
如果大家希望的话 if they want later,
它叫做 基尼系数 but it's the so-called Gini index,
基尼系数以意大利的经济学家命名 named after an Italian economist named Gini.
这是对于收入不平等的测量指标 It's a measure of income inequality
这是在原则上 或者说 that is in principle or
收入正交 potentially orthogonal to just income.
这些是每一百万人中的他杀数量 And these are homicides per million persons
1990年的数据 来自美国50个洲 per annum in 1990 in 50 U.S. states
和加拿大10个省 and 10 Canadian provinces
可以证明收入不平等这个因素 as a function of income inequality.
我认为这些数字十分了不起 And I think these data are really remarkable.
我们在加拿大一直纠结于 We in Canada agonize all the time over
为什么 我们和美国人不同 why we're different from the Yanks,
那些人怎么了 you know, what's the matter with those people
我们国界线以南的人们怎么了 south of the border, you know,
RCMP在殖民者之前移民到了西部 oh, the RCMP got west before the settlers
这不同于 and that was different
边界心态 than the frontier mentality
边界心态影响了美国人 that infected the Americans.
我确信 这有些道理 You know, I'm sure there's some truth to that;
持枪 gun ownership, blah, blah,
评估 the valorization of, you know,
美国人的自主性 individual initiative in U.S. and
这些东西都很好 All these things are fine,
有意思的是 but it's sort of interesting
这个单一的 简单的 概约的 that this single, simple, crude (and it is crude)
经济指数 economic index woops
可以体现 国与国之间 eats up, pretty much, the between-countries
他杀率的不同 variability in homicide rates.
同样值得注意的是 It's also noteworthy that
就算在美国内部 也有很大的不同 there's massive differences even within the U.S.
我的意思是 他杀率的不同 I mean, again, I said homicide differences
很有意思 部分是因为 有很大的不同 are interesting partly because they're so big.
在他杀率方面 有十倍的差异 There's tenfold differences in homicide rates
存在于美国最和平 between the most peaceful
和最暴力的州 and the most violent U.S. states.
我们所谈论的不是微不足道的差异 We're not talking dinky little differences,
我们所谈论的是大差异 we're talking big differences.
收入不平等 解释了 And income inequality explains about
一半的差异 half the variance.
顺道说一下 这个变量 And this variable, by the way,
不同的人有不同的解析 has been found in various analyses
他们看来 它是最好的单一指数 by various people to be the best single predictor
来预示他杀率在不同国家的不同 of cross-national variability in homicide rates.
最终 第三个可能 And finally, the third thing that is likely
加剧不顾后果的冒险的是 to exacerbate reckless risk-taking is
未来的不确定 when the future's uncertain.
我想说的是 What I'm thinking of here is,
有很多证据证明 and there's lots of evidence
这一点存在于非人类动物中 for this sort of thing in non-human animals.
如果你面临的环境 If you're confronted with an environment
外在死亡率非常高 in which extrinsic mortality is high, in which
很有可能死于 the likelihood that something will kill you,
天敌 疾病 等等 predators, disease, whatever, is cued for you
可能性极高 你控制不了 as being high, independent of your actions,
选择将会倾向于 then, selection is going to favor
在那种环境下 in that circumstance
用尽最大的繁殖努力 expending maximal reproductive effort
短期之内用尽 in the short term.
没有长远的眼光 You know, not having a long time horizon,
激烈地竞争 competing intensely for
竞争繁殖机会 等等 reproductive opportunities and so forth.
Margo有个好主意 Now, Margo had the brilliant idea
是几年前想出来的 a number of years ago
我们应该以另外的视角看一下他杀 that we should look at homicide in relation to,
我们应该看看 we should look
他杀率是不是会受到 whether homicide rates could be predicted by
预期寿命的影响 life expectancy, net of the impacts of homicide,
当然 将他杀看做是一种死因 of course, take homicide as a cause of death
不作考虑 你可能会说 out of the analysis, and you say,
男性们是否更容易自相残杀 "are guys more likely to kill each other
尤其是当预期寿命短的时候 in contexts where life expectancy is low?"
我们这些分析 And we did these analyses
是在芝加哥做的 in the city of Chicago.
这些是 And here are homicides
每10万人的他杀数量 per hundred-thousand persons per annum
来自芝加哥77个地区 in 77 Chicago neighborhoods
随着预期寿命而波动 as a function of life expectancy.
如果屋里有人口生物学家的话 If there's a population biologist in the room,
我得为使用Lx说抱歉 I apologize for using "Lx"
抱歉把它作为预期寿命的缩写 as a shorthand for life expectancy.
我意识到这个词儿 I realize it's actually a term
是计算预期寿命时用的 in the computation of life expectancy,
我应该把这个移出表 I really should get that out of the figure
他杀效应 I suppose, but Effect of homicide
计算中忽略不计 has been removed from the calculation
因为这样会循环 because that would be circular, you know,
他杀率高的地方 where people are getting killed
预期寿命低 their life expectancy is low
从预期寿命 and life expectancy predictor of them
可以预示他杀率 getting killed, duh.
所以 我们必须排除他杀作为死因 So you take homicide as a cause of death out.
值得注意的是 One of the things that's remarkable here,
在美国并不为人们熟知 and that is essentially unknown in the U.S.
应该得到更多关注的是 and should be getting a lot more attention,
预期寿命的差别很大 is the ridiculous range of life expectancies
不同区域 across neighborhoods
即使是在同一个城市差别都很大 in a major modern American city.
我是说 这样很不光彩 I mean, it's disgraceful;
在芝加哥治安最优的街区 in the best neighborhoods in Chicago,
男性出生时的预期寿命是78岁 male life expectancy at birth is like 78 years,
和斯堪的纳维亚的值相等 which is Scandanavian values.
在最差的街区 预期寿命不到55岁 In the worst neighborhoods, it's under 55 years,
这和津巴布韦一样低 which, you know, Zimbabwe's worse.
我不确定 I'm not sure
当代还有哪个国家 there are any other contemporary countries
从全国来讲 情况这么差 that are worse on a national level.
让人很震惊 It's pretty shocking.
这是最强的单变关系 And this is the strongest univariant relationship
存在于可测变量和自杀率之间 between measured variable and homicide rates
这是一个跨区域研究的成果 in a crossectional study
强于任何研究中的任何关系 that anybody's ever found anywhere.
70%的 You're eating up almost 70% of
他杀率差别 the variance in homicide rates
都是源自于预期寿命 by life expectancy.
同样有意思的是 Interestingly also,
对于在座的犯罪学爱好者来说 for the criminology aficionados in the audience,
美国的犯罪学家一直 American criminologists have been
非常喜欢 不同的变量 very fond of talking about various variables
来预测各城市的他杀率 that predict homicide rates in cities,
如果你对美国犯罪学家说 and if you said to an American criminologist:
这能够解释大部分的差异 "ok, this eats up most of the variance,
请大家猜一下哪个变量 guess what the only variable we can find that
极大地影响了剩下的差异 significantly predicts residual variance is,
有另外一个重要的影响因素 that's a significant additional predictor of
需要解释 what's left to be explained?"
我想有人会说 I think it's a safe bet that they would say,
生活环境鱼龙混杂 "hmmm, racial heterogeneity of
或者是 一定数量的黑人 the neighborhood" or "percent Black,"
或其他愚蠢的话 or some fool thing.
答案是 收入不平等 The answer is income inequality,
这是唯一一个变量 that's the only variable that
能预测剩余的差异 predicts any residual variance that
我们的分析中不能遗漏 we can find in this analysis.
想想那些 Well think about these guys
生活在平均寿命短的环境中 in these low life expectancy neightborhoods.
他们目睹了杀人 They're seeing people killed,
他们目睹了 they're seeing
这里最大的不同 you know most of the difference here
部分是因为 is due to it's due to partly to
疾病没有得到治疗 untreated disease.
在芝加哥最糟糕的地区 In the worst neighborhoods in Chicago
医院关闭了 the hospitals have closed
因为破产 because they've gone bankrupt.
他们无法继续支付急诊室的开销 They couldn't afford their emergency rooms,
所以关闭了医院 so they just shut down the hospitals.
所以 芝加哥最差的街区 So people in the worst neighborhoods in Chicago
没有急诊室可以去 don't have an emergency room to go to,
所以 致死的疾病 so people die of the same injuries
在更好的环境中是可以治愈的 they might survive in better neighborhoods.
更有甚者 And even more than that,
死亡方面也有很大的不同 there's a big difference in deaths
内因导致死亡 也就是疾病 from so-called internal causes, from disease.
在很大程度上是 疾病得不到治疗 Again, it's largely a matter of untreated disease
因为所在环境太差 in the worst neighborhoods,
同样的疾病 and the same diseases
在更好的环境中是可以得到治疗的 are treated in better neighborhoods.
同样 可能会有 But there's also possibly
传染的可能 worse circumstances of infection and so on
这在最差的环境中都是可能发生的 in the worst neightborhoods.
无论如何 如果你在 But anyway, if you grow up
在些差环境中长大 in one of these bad neighborhoods,
你就会看到一些人死去 you see that some people die.
这暗示着 And what is the implication about
你会如何生活呢 how you should live your life?
应该是投资未来吧 Investing in the future is kind of a mug's game.
收入可靠度很有可能是 Income reliability is probably really
另外一个预测因素 might well be an additional predictive factor,
在这类分析中 actually, in these kinds of analyses,
前提是 我们能够得到相关数据 if we could get good data on it.
你的收入的 The extent to which whatever your income is
影响程度 now is predictive of you still having
很有可能较低 that a year hence is probably lower
这是指最差的环境 in the worst neighborhoods.
但 无论如何 But in any case,
为什么不成为一个危险的竞争者呢 why not be a dangerous competitor?
为什么短期之内活得危险点 Why not live dangerously and in the short term?
匪徒人种志会告诉大家 A gang ethnography tells you that
匪徒 that's the way gang members
在城市环境中的思维方式 urban environments think.
他们不一定能够 They don't necessarily have
准确地领会 an accurate apprehension of
他们的预期寿命和死亡风险 their life expectancy and their mortality risks,
但是 他们一定知道 but they sure as hell have an apprehension
他们的预期寿命很短 that their life expectancy is low
他们最好能快速行动 and they better get theirs now.
这就是大家进门时 And that's what the song you were listening to
听到的那首歌 when you came in was about.
这首歌叫 生在芝加哥 It was this song, "Born in Chicago",
演唱者是PBB乐队 by the Paul Butterfield Blues Band,
词作者是Nick Gravinites written by Nick Gravinites,
一个乐队成员 a member of that band.
这就是大家听到的那首歌 And that's the song you were listening to.
我1941年出生于芝加哥 "I was born in Chicago in 19 and 41.
我爸爸告诉我 My father told me,
孩子 你最好有把枪 "Son, you better get a gun."
之后 对于在座 And then, for those of you who are not
不懂这种语言的 native speakers of whatever language this is,
这就意味着死亡 that meant "die".
这首歌的主题是 And the theme of the song is,
我看见身边的朋友相继死去 "I saw my friends die around me."
最后的歌词很有意思 And then the last verse is sort of interesting.
我没有机会问一下 I didn't get a chance to ask
写这首歌的人 the guy who wrote the song
他写歌时到底想的是什么 exactly what he had in mind when he wrote it,
但是 我知道了 but I read this,
规则是有必要的 因为 "rules are all right if there's someone left
人们还是要玩游戏 to play the game.
我所有的朋友都离开了 All my friends are going
一切都不一样了 and things just don't seem the same,"
这是某种宣言 as kind of a declaration that
过着被规则束缚的生活是有意义的 living a rule-bound life makes sense
尤其是 当我身边的社会环境 when the social environment around me
有一些些不稳定 is a little bit unstable,
但是 规则不适用 but it ain't, and the rules don't apply anymore.
富有争议的是 And arguably,
这和我们为什么看见 that has a lot to do with why we see
最差环境中的暴力紧密相关 the violence we see in the worst neighborhoods
比如说在芝加哥这样的城市 就是这样 of a city like Chicago. That's it.