教授:好 我说过 Prof: Ok, so like I said
相关性跟因果关系 correlation and causation
尽管对一些同学来说这没什么好讲的 I would to talk about it even though
可我还是想讲讲这个 it's a pretty obvious thing for some of you
我想确保这个有讲到 I'd like to make sure we go over it
因为这不仅仅和这门课有关 because not just for this class
而是跟大家在UMBC会上的 but any kind of science-type class
随便哪一门理科课都有关 you take at UMBC
以后大家出去社会上从事不同的工作啦 and then when you go out and do different things
新出台的研究啦 新闻啦这些都有关 and news and studies that come out
我希望大家能带着批判的眼光去消化科研信息 I want you to be kind of critical consumers of information from science
某个研究想要告诉我们的东西 and it's not always obvious or clear
不一定就清楚 就容易理解 what a study is telling you, it may sound good
可能听起来好听 但是无法证明研究的假设 but not actually prove what it's suggests it proves
或者只是貌似能够证明但其实不能 or it sounds like it proves
实际上 本周星期一课结束的时候 In fact just at the end of the class on Monday
抱歉 麻烦再说一下你的名字 I'm sorry, your name again
学生:Urumi Student: Urumi
教授:Urumi？ Prof: Urumi?
学生:Urumi Student: Urumi
教授:Urumi Prof: Urumi
Urumi来找我 实际上是她朋友来找我 Urumi came up, actually it was your friend
噢 抱歉 你叫什么名字 oh you I'm sorry your name
学生:Shalani Student: Shalani
教授:Shalani? Prof: Shalani?
学生:Shalani Student: Shalani
教授:Shalani来问我书中 Prof: Shalani came up and asked me
某个章节中的某一句话 about something from one of the chapters, a sentence that read
在儿子面前 mothers who behave seductively
表现出挑逗性行为的母亲 towards their sons have disruptive behaviour
通常和女儿的关系不太融洽 I mean disruptive relationships with their daughters
她问我为什么这会是真的 and she was like asking me why that was true
我倒是没有听说过那个研究 And I didn't know that particular study
那句话不止这些 但是主要说的就是这个意思 There was more to the sentence than that but that was the heart of it
这句话看上去做了一个因果的陈述 And looking at it, now it sounds like it's making a causal statement
有了这个 从而得出了那个 You know this, you know, they also have this
无论这个论断是否正确 Well it may or may not, that's kind of
这里的关键 想让大家意识到 what the point of this is to get you fine-tuned to realise
这个论断并没有证实其因果关系 that statement doesn't prove causality
那只是一个关注家庭内部关系的研究 That that was a study looking at relationships in the family
它表示出了一件事与另一件事的相关性 and showing a correlation between one thing and another
但这并不一定说明了这件事导致了那件事 which doesn't necessarily means that one thing leads to the other
这个案例中 也许在存在一些因果关系 Now in that case there might be some causal relationship
也许对儿子的挑逗性行为 You know acting seductively towards the son
或许女儿会 You know the daughter might be...
会引起女儿的反感 some daughters might be upset by that
我不知道这个案例中 I don't know what acting seductively means
挑逗性行为到底是指怎样的行为 in that particular case
也许某些女儿对挑逗性行为作出了负面的回应 You know, it might be some daughters react negatively to that
但是也有可能 挑逗性行为 But it might be that behaving seductively
意味着给儿子的关注更多 also means you give the son more attention
也许那才是母女关系不融洽的原因 And maybe that's why the daughter and the mom don't get along
因此 并不是说挑逗性行为导致了关系的不融洽 So that doesn't mean the seductiveness causes the bad relationship
而是伴随着行为而来的问题 but rather what comes along with seductiveness
也许就像刚才我说的 Maybe it's also that those same moms, like I just said
某些母亲会更关心偏爱儿子 are spending more time and paying more attention to their sons
因此要持有批判性的态度 So you gotta be critical about what you read
想想这跟我所说的 跟书上说的 And think about is this making both with what I say
跟你所听说过的 and what the book says
都是否相合 and what you hear about
这真的是一个因果关系的论断吗？ Is this really making a causal statement or not?
这真的证实了存在某种因果关系吗？ Is it really proving something about cause and effect?
关于儿童成长和其动力源的关系 About children's development and where it comes from
有很多关于 观看电视或电影时 There's been a lot of correlational studies
暴力因素的因果影响的研究 of watching violence on TV or in the movies
点的位置越高 The higher these dots get up going this way
行为也就越有攻击性 which is aggressive behaviour
因此这是一种正比例关系 so higher leading to higher
红点则代表了消极的联系 A negative correlation would be those red dots
自左上始 至右下终 would be coming from the top left down to the right bottom, right
你们也看到了 这并不是一种完美的相关性 And so you see it's not a perfect correlation
因为 例如 希拉里的案例 Because, for example, Hillary here
这里是......这并没有精确到5 Let's call, it's not exactly a five
实际上大概是4.5 it's about a four-and-a-half let's say
这是希拉里看电视的量 so, Hillary, you know, she watches this much TV
但是她左上方的点 but then that dot right to the top left of her
表示看的有关暴力电视的量要少些 is watching less violent TV
但实际上表现的攻击性行为还要略多一些 but is actually displaying slightly more aggressive behaviour
因此这并不能很好的助于理解两者的关系 So it's not perfect understanding of one or the other
那么这是否表现了 观看电视上的暴力 So does this show that watching TV violence
会大致儿童攻击性行为？ causes aggressive behavior in kids?
不是的 No
那是什么呢？ What's that?
学生:是有关系的 Student: It's related to it
教授:是有关系的 Prof: It's related to it
那么这个不成其 And what were some reasons
为因果关系的原因又是什么呢？ why this doesn't show a causal relationship?
还有什么因素会影响这个点状图的模型呢？ What else might account for this kind of general pattern of dots?
教授:布里奇特请说 Prof: Bridget
学生:这不是因果关系是因为有一个实验...... Student: It's not causal relation because they have an experiment that...
教授:对 布里奇特说得非常好 那就是 Prof: Right, so Bridget says there might be a third variable
也许还有第三个变量 导致了这两者 and that's an excellent point that's causing both things
也许是低收入 Maybe low income
乔治的父母可能控制欲很强 So George maybe has these terribly controlling parents
从不让他出家门一步 that never let him out of the house
呃 金姆不是这么说的 Well that's not what Kim said
但是我们可以想象他从来都没出过家门 but we can imagine that, you know, he doesn't get to leave the house
只能看 and he only gets to watch
他10岁了 但是还是只能看《淘气小兵兵》 He's ten years old but he only gets to watch Rugrats
同时 孩子被控制得很紧 And at the same time, it's because of this control of the kid
家长也不让他和其他孩子玩 They never let him actually play with other kids either
因为他总一个人呆在家里 So he never gets into fights
他不能出去和小孩们玩 也就不会跟人争斗 because he's always inside and never out playing with kids
但是有可能 我这么讲可能有点极端 But there might be, I mean that was an extreme thing to say
不过大家明白我的意思就对了 But you know you get the point
也许存在第三个变量 导致了这两者因素 There might be a third variable that causes both of these things
因此和他一起玩的小孩子 Right so the kids that he's hanging out with
也许斯派克会和家教不好的小孩一起玩 Maybe Spike is hanging out with kids you know from bad families
他到他们家去看有暴力性质的电视 and he's going over their houses and watching violent TV
然后出去玩火箭瓶 And then they go outside and shoot off bottle rockets
然后邻居就生气了 And, you know, get the neighbour mad
最后他们就卷入了跟邻居家小孩的一场争斗 and then end up getting in a fight with the neighbour's kids
这里 是这种同龄人的影响导致了这两者 But it's this influence by peers that's causing both of those things
两种因素都很高 both of these things to be high
而不是说是一件事导致了另一件事 as opposed to one thing exactly leading to the other
艾伦提出一个想法 Eron mentioned the idea
说也许喜怒无常 that well maybe aggressive kind of
又有攻击性的小孩喜欢看电视呢 temperamentally aggressive kind of kids like watching TV
因此 也许因果的方向不是从X到Y So maybe the direction of effect isn't from the x to the y
而是从Y轴到X轴呢 but rather from the y to the x axis
因此也许是存在一种因果关系的 So there maybe is a causal relationship
但那是另一个方向的因果关系 but maybe it's in the other direction of what we thought
跟这个研究刚好相反 going into the study that we just did
这里 Right here
因此也许是攻击性 So maybe it's going from aggression
和攻击性人格导致了...... and aggressive personalities to the idea...
实际上我们通过评估知道 And in fact we know that
攻击性的小孩倾向于喜欢看暴力电视 that aggressive kids tend to like watching violent TV from ratings
因此 那么...... Ok, so and as...
那么时间因素的影响呢？ What about time?
如果我们做的研究之间有十年的时间差呢 What if we did a study where it was ten years' difference
我们去年开始了一个研究 So we started last year
我们在巴尔的摩郡所属的公立学校 We did a survey of all of
做了一个调查 Baltimore County public school system
在小学生中间 like elementary school kids
不管人数有多少(听不清) However many kids that is (INAUDIBLE)
对他们看电视的时间做评估 rated how much they watched TV
让他们的父母估算看暴力电视的时间 Had their parents rate that had them rate it, violent TV
然后在十年后 and then ten years later from now
也就是2015年我们来看结果是什么 so 2015 we see how much
那么假设我们调查的是一年级学生 大概五六岁 So well let's pretend we did it with, first graders who are five or six
然后十年后再来做一次 and then we go back and do it ten years later
等到他们高中 大概十五六岁时候 and we see when they're fifteen or sixteen in high school
他们大概打了多少架 How many fights they're getting into
因为这是在十年前做的调查 Well this was measured ten years earlier
因此那肯定能说明这是影响 so that definitely shows that this is influencing
或导致这种行为的原因 or causing this right?
是不是？ yes or no?
好 布里奇特一直坚持这个立场 OK Bridget keeps coming back to this stand
除非研究是实验性质的 不然不能证明什么 that you can't prove it unless it's experimental
她是对的 时间是个谜 And she's right and time is a myth
实际上这个大家如果读得快的话 and this is something in fact
可能已经读到过了 what did you just read in there
就在刚才我分发给大家的材料中 If you got that far in what I handed out
艾伦和休斯曼是调研员 Eron and Huesmann are the researchers
那个实验 在很多方面都让人印象颇深 And that study, you know, is impressive in a lot of ways
比如纵向研究就很酷 I mean longitudinal studies are kind of cool
你们可以看到他们十年后是什么样子 Ten years later, you know seeing what they look like later in life
但是仍然...... But yet it's still...
不管规模有多大 有多少孩子参与这个实验 and despite how large and how many kids they included
仍然证明不了因果关系 it doesn't prove causation
无法说明任何因果关系 it says nothing about causation
如果在同一时间研究另外某个东西 The same things that are true
它是成立的 if you study something at the exact same time
如果你同时做了调查问卷 它是成立的 if you did your questionnaires at the same time are true
如果在我们假想的这个实验中 I mean it very well could be that
我们有测量过 if we had measured in that study
如果我们测量过从十年间 that hypothetical study we talked about
孩子对暴力的暴露程度 以及目前的 If we would have measured violent exposure
攻击性 ten years from now
那实验很有可能是成立的 and aggression now, maybe we will...
如果这两个因素都是稳定的的话 You know if these things are both stable
去年看暴力电视的小孩 If the same kids are watching violent TV last year
十年后还在看 are watching ten years from now
去年打架的孩子 The same kids getting into fights last year
十年后还在打架 are getting into fights ten years from now
那么还是没有证明任何因果关系 You still haven't proved anything about causality
你仍然不知道 You still don't know
这些箭头该指向哪个方向 what direction these arrows are supposed to be going in
正如布里奇特告诉我们很多次 And as Bridget has told us a couple of times
能帮助我们建立因果关系的 就是实验 the one thing that helps you establish causation are experiments
现在有许多关于电视暴力和小孩攻击性的 And now there have been many studies, experimental studies
实验性研究 of television violence and children's aggression
我想讲一讲一部分案例 And I want to go over a couple of those
大家来评断一下这些案例 And have us critique them
看看我们该怎么思考这些研究 and see what we think about these studies
他们证明了什么 没能证明什么 and what they prove and disprove
第一个案例是利伯特和巴伦于1972年做的 First of all a study by Liebert and Baron in 1972
评估了5到9岁的学童 Grade school kids five to nine year olds
让一半的孩子观看了一个电视节目 Have half of them watched a TV show
叫《铁面无私》 The Untouchables
你们也许看过《铁面无私》这部电影 You probably know the movie The Untouchables
有一个电视节目也叫这个名字 There was a TV show called The Untouchables
这是一个黑白电视节目 That was a black and white show
你们可以看出 Anyway, that The Untouchables
《铁面无私》中有一些暴力因素 you can see, had kind of violent acts in it
有一半的孩子看了这个 half the kids watched those
《铁面无私》的一个3分钟片段 The three-minute clips of The Untouchables
另一半孩子看了一场激动人心的田径赛 The other half, they had watch an exciting track meet
为什么要让另一半人 Why would they have the other half of people
看精彩的户外田径赛 watch an exciting track meet
而不就让他们坐那里呢 as opposed to just sitting there
教授:请说 Prof: yeah
学生:看户外田径赛可以 Student: Well watching a track meet, you know
在没有暴力因素的条件下让荷尔蒙升高 kind of gets your hormones pumping, but without the violent part
教授:对 Prof: Right
因此你想证明的是 So you want to be able to say that it's
屏幕上描述的真实暴力场景 the actual violence depicted on the screen as opposed to the fact
也许是引发暴力冲动的因素 而不是 well maybe there were, kind of, just up and aroused
孩子们光看了《铁面无私》后就蠢蠢欲动了 And ready to go after they watched The Untouchables
因为暴力电视很具煽动性 because violent TV does tend to be arousing
因此他们想要孩子们观看近似的东西 So they wanted to, kind of keep that
以保持差不多的冲动性 level of arousal after watching the kind of similar
好 因此孩子们看过了这些3分钟的视频 OK so they had them watch these three-minute videos
然后把他们带到一个观察室 and then they took them to a control room
就像大学的实验室 it was like in a lab in a university
把他们带到观察室 Take them to a control room
然后告诉这些孩子... and then they said they going to get to...
另一个房间有另一个孩子在玩游戏 There was another kid in another room playing a game
他们既可以帮这个孩子 and they could either help
也可以用他们的游戏伤害这个孩子 or hurt this kid with their game
他们被告知 这另一个孩子 They were told this other kid
可以通过转动一个手柄 来扭转比赛 was turning a game where they had to turn handles
从而赢得奖品 to like win prizes
刚才看了暴力电视或者户外田径赛的孩子 And our kid who just watched the violent movie or the exciting track meet
坐在一个有按钮的房间 was in a room with buttons
绿色按钮表示提供帮助 They had a green button which was the help button
红色按钮表示伤害 or the red hurt button
实际上 他们被告知 Which, in fact, they were told that
如果他们按了红色的伤害按钮 if they hit the red hurt button
另外房间里小孩要摇动的把手就会被加热 it heated up these levers that the kid in the other room had to turn
因此就没法再转把手了 so it made it harder to do
当然另一个房间里没有小孩也没有把手 Of course there was no kid in the other room and no levers
但是他们是这么跟小孩说的 小孩就是这么想的 But these kids were told that so they thought that
那么他们发现了什么呢？ Well what did they find?
看了《铁面无私》的孩子 Not surprisingly kids who had watched The Untouchables
会大大更倾向于按红色钮伤害的按钮 were much more likely to press the hurt button
这并不意外 the red button
孩子年龄越小就越是如此 And this was especially true for the younger children
也就是研究中的六七岁的小孩 The six-year-olds and the seven-year-olds in the study
比起年龄大点的小孩 更是如此 more true than for the older kids
那么是否这个研究证明了 So does this study prove that watching TV violence
看暴力电视就会导致攻击性呢？ causes aggression then?
是还是不是？ yes or no?
丹尼尔说现在孩子 Daniel is saying that society, the media
面对的媒体与社会 is much more complex that faces children today
比以前的孩子所面对的要复杂得多 than it was maybe back then
这是对的 And that's true
那实际上 我是说那并不...... And that's actually, I mean that's not...
仅仅是因为一个 It's a good point in that just because say a study from
大概30年前的研究 whether or not from thirty years ago
通过实验室试验 指出 finds that in a laboratory
孩子看暴力电视就会变得有攻击性 that watching violence leads to aggression in kids
是否就说明了真实世界中 Does that mean how much of an impact in the real world
电视暴力会具有如此的影响呢？ does that really have?
我们知道孩子可以从网络 视频游戏 Given that the internet, video games all these other ways
等等方式中接触到暴力 that a kid can see violence
不像电视就是自己在那里演而已 You know it's not like television is acting by itself out there
因此即使在实验室中看上去有很强的影响 So even if it looks like in a lab it has a strong impact
那么是否在真实世界中 in the real world
也是会有很强的影响呢 does it have a strong impact
但是撇开这些不谈这个实验是否告诉了我们 But regardless, does this study at all show us
看暴力电视 that watching TV violence
至少在某个程度上导致了攻击性呢 at least causes aggression to some extent
至少在这个试验的背景中 at least in the context of this study
教授:请说 Prof: Yeah
学生:我想说的是 Student: you know all I'm saying is that, you know
在我看了成龙的电影后 after watching like a Jackie Chan movie
我想和我的朋友们练练功夫 I'm gonna want to bust up some of my friends with that Kung Fu
教授:你会吗？ Prof: You do?
学生:是的 我想说 成龙太棒了 Student: yeah just because Jackie Chan's amazing, that's all I'm saying
因此看了之后我就想跟大家练练手 So right afterwards I wanna go Kung Fu all over everyone
但是我不认为我就是一个有暴力倾向的人 But I don't think I'm necessarily a violent person
只是成龙激发了我 You know, Jackie Chan inspires me is all
教授:你叫什么名字？ Prof: OK, so your name?
学生:皮特 Student: Peter
皮特说成龙很有激发性 Peter says Jackie Chan is inspiring
有谁在看了成龙电影后 and who wouldn't want to beat up their friends
不想跟朋友打架的 after watching a Jackie Chan movie
但是换种方式来讲 But say that in a different way
你借此对这个实验的评价是什么？ How is that a critique of this?
它说明了什么？ what is that saying?
你想说的什么？ Are you suggesting that what?
学生:我想说的是在刚看了电视后 Student: Well, I'm saying that right after the movie
如果刚看了《铁面无私》或别的片子 as if they just watched The Untouchables or whatever
他们可能还沉浸在那种心态之中 Then they might be like still in that mentality
比如 暴力万岁 我想用那个把手或者别的什么 like yeah oh violence I want to make this harder for everyone else
让他们尝尝苦头 with the lever thing or whatever
而看户外田径赛的人或许可能想 Whereas people in the track meet are probably like
噢 这个人太辛苦了 我要帮帮他 oh man this guy's working hard I probably should help him out
教授:对的 这也就是 Prof: Right so it's a matter of
好 也许这个实验的确证明了 OK so maybe this experiment does prove that
看了暴力电视之后不久 it does cause aggression
也就是你从这间屋走到那间屋的时间 or something immediately after it
它会引发攻击性 此类的结论 If you walk from this room to the next room
但是这是否是说在真实世界中如此 我就不...... But does that mean in the real world when I don't... you know
也许当我看完成龙电影后 我会做几个回踢 When I'm done watching Jackie Chan I usually kick back
或者 不知道 也许吃爆米花 and I don't know, have popcorn
我不会出去和我朋友练练 and I don't go about mix it up with my friends
因为他们没和我在一起啦 这样的 because they're not there or whatever
你观点不错 good point
教授:请说 Prof: yeah
学生:我想看像《铁面无私》这种电影 Student: I think with watching something like The Untouchables
人们在里面会互相打 互相射击 where they're just punching each other and shooting each other
取决于你看的暴力电视的种类 It might have a different effect
不同的类型也许会有不同的影响 kind of depending on which kinds of violence you're watching
教授:好 看上去你想说的是 Prof: OK so are you arguing, it sounds like
如果不是就纠正我吧 and tell me if I'm wrong
《铁面无私》比起成龙的电影来 you're arguing that this might be
是更真实的暴力 more realistic violence than Jackie Chan violence
因为成龙电影里面都是拳脚功夫 Is that what you're saying
你说的是这个意思吗？ because of all the flips and stuff you're saying?
这就引出了另外一个有点题外的观点 And as another point kind of an aside point
说什么样的暴力电视或电影 Which is you know well what kind of violent TV or movies
会产生影响呢？ have an effect?
我的观点是 有人之前也说过了 And I would argue that for most kids
对大部分孩子来说 他们表现出来的 the kind of more subtle forms of violence
更为温和形式的暴力 the more realistic form of violence
更近似于真实生活的暴力 which some kids do as somebody said earlier
实验中的孩子和其他孩子一样 They aren't able to distinguish reality from fiction
都不能区别现实和虚构 as well as other kids are
理由则有所不同 for different reasons
或许是因为家庭环境什么的 Because of their family environment or something like that
因此可能会更多受这些因素影响 So they might be more likely to be influenced by that
请说 Yeah
学生:对这个研究我想说的是 Student: Well that's what I would say of this study
有多少孩子的生活环境是 is how many of these kids were coming from environments
他们在睡前会在外面街上 where guns and fights they saw, you know
看到枪支和打斗的 right before they went to sleep in their street outside
又有多少孩子的环境是街边树木成荫的郊区 Versus kids that were living in you know tree-lined streets in suburbia
睡前父母会读故事 掖被子 mommy and daddy read you a book and tuck you in
比起在睡前听到窗外枪声的孩子 versus these kids, you know, who listen to gun shots outside their window
因为这会增加实验难度 You know because that would make it more difficult
也为把现实和电影暴力区分开增加了难度 even for other difficult to distinguish real violence from a movie
教授:嗯 很好的观点 请再说一下你的名字 Prof: OK good point and your name again
学生:布里奇特 Student: Bridget
教授:布里奇特的观点很好 Prof: Bridget, good point and actually
我看到还有人有问题要提 但是我们必须继续讲 there's some other hands up but we need to move on
这就引出了我们的下一个研究 but that leads us to the next study well which is
这说明了一件事 Well this found one thing the younger kids
年龄小的孩子受所见事物的影响会更大 seemed to be more influenced by what they saw
但是孩子的一些其他特点 But maybe there's other things characteristic of kids
这个研究没有顾到 that this study didn't look at
也许会是影响结果的点 that would be important to know
比如暴力会对谁真正有影响 in terms of who violence is really influencing
也许会对谁产生影响 or might possibly influence
因此第二个我们要看的实验 So a second study I want us to look at
被研究对象是比利时的青少年 This was done with Belgian adolescents
这是约30年前的实验 and it's about thirty years old
这是在一个类似拘留所的地方 And this is in like a detention centre
这些青少年都因为惹了事被关进去 these are adolescents who had gotten into some trouble
因此他们就在一个类似青少年拘留所的地方 so they were in like a juvenile detention centre
但是人们称之为小屋舍 But they call them cottages
在研究开始之前 And before the study began
研究人员先去观察了这些孩子的攻击性 they went ahead and observed how aggressive these kids were
以及他们犯事的起因 And so why would they do that
就像布里奇特刚才所说的 Well it would be because of what Bridget just said
他们想知道 they wanted to know, you know
有哪些孩子一开始就表现出了攻击性 which kids were aggressive in the first place
也许这些因素 and might that be something
让一些孩子更易受影响 might that be something that causes certain kids to be influenced more
另一个原因是 他们研究的4家拘留所中 A second reason they did that was, of the four cottages they looked at
有2所 里面孩子的平均攻击性要强一些 they found that overall two of the cottages, on average
另两所要弱一些 had more aggressive kids and two less so
因此他们最后就把这两种类型分开 So that what they ended up doing was splitting this
分了两组孩子 一组攻击性更强 一组更弱 They took a more aggressive cottage and a less aggressive cottage
给他们观看了带有暴力因素的材料 and showed them violent things
另外两组就被带去看不那么暴力的材料 And the other two they showed them kind of less violent things
因此这是我们最后这个研究的另一个可能的评判 So that's another critique of the last study, possibly
呃 我们也不知道 well we didn't know
因此他们随机把孩子分成两组 So they randomly put kids into two groups
要么看《铁面无私》 要么不看 to either watch The Untouchables or not
但是我们怎么知道 呃 尽管这是随机做的 But how do we know that, you know, even though it's done randomly
但也许偶然地 被分到一组的所有孩子 that by accident all the kids who got into one group
可能一开始就都具备了很高的攻击性呢 weren't more aggressive in the first place
因此通过这样先对攻击性有一个了解 So by doing this looking at aggression beforehand
你可以进行对照 或了解 you can kind of control that, or understand that
然后把这些孩子分组 And then you can, you know, pick them to be in certain groups
决定他们要看的电视或电影 of what they're gonna watch in terms of TV or movies
连续一周 每天晚上屋舍的孩子们都看电影 Every night for a week the cottages watched movies
每天晚上一部不同的电影 a different movie every night
他们对其中一组也许给的都是很暴力的 And they assigned either all aggressive movies to one side
因为这是70年代的事 like again this is in the 70s
因此给他们看的电影可能是《雌雄大盗》 so they showed movies like Bonnie and Clyde
或《十二金刚》那样的军事题材电影 The Dirty Dozen which is like a military movie if you know that
有很多的枪击打斗 a lot of shooting fighting things like that
他们实际上...... They actually...
他们不仅仅是看暂时的效果 they did... one thing they did was not look at just the temporary effects
也看了长期影响 but longer term
并不是真正的长期 而是比暂时略长 Not real long-term but a little long-term
比如他们第一周和第二周 in these sense that they watched for aggression that first week
都看暴力电影 but also the second week
当屋舍其他成员都回去 when the cottages went back to the regular routine of watching
看平时晚间看的正常内容了 whatever they watched in the evenings
实验对象还是看暴力电影 they continued to watch for aggression
然后看孩子们会不会更容易斗殴 and see if people were teasing more
更加容易挑衅人 if they were getting into fights more and so on
他们发现了什么？ What did they find?
确实 那两个被分去看暴力电视的屋舍 That indeed in those two cottages assigned to watch the violent movies
发生了更多暴力事件 there was more aggression
尤其是在晚上 especially in the evening and especially in that one cottage
尤其是这两组中本来就更有攻击性的那一组 of the two that were more aggressive
因此再一次回到布里奇特的观点上 So again back to Bridget's point
也许有些孩子本身 that maybe certain kids
就更易受电视暴力的影响 are more susceptible to the effects of TV violence
实际上这就是这个研究所指出 and in fact that's what this study would say
或说所发现的 or what it found
那就是更具攻击性孩子的拘留所 was that the more kids in general
会有更多孩子被暴力因素影响 in the more aggressive cottage were more influenced by it
那为什么尤其在晚上 Why might especially in the evenings
会观察到更多暴力事件呢 they have seen more aggression
在这个研究里 晚上是孩子们看电影的时间 Well and in this case that's when they're watching the movies
因此回到了皮特的观点上 So kind of back to Peter's point
在你刚刚看了电影之后 You know right after you see the movie
也许就会更加跃跃欲试 you might be more likely to act on it or to mimic the kind of phrases
或者当场景合适的时候 tough phrases that you heard from the movie
和朋友们模仿电影里放的狠话 with your friends when something else is going on
也许看暴力电影...... You know maybe watching the violent movie...
呃 我不知道场景是怎样 You know I don't know what the setting looked like
但是如果你把看暴力电影 but you know if in some way you associate watching the violent movie
和看电影所在的房间环境联系起来 with whatever the room was like you're hanging out with
然后你又去了其他地方 But then when you go somewhere else
就会忘了这回事 you kind of forget about it
于是暴力场景就不会发挥一样的影响 and it doesn't have quite the same effect
你们可以看到 In the second week as you can see here
第二周就没有那么多身体暴力行为 there wasn't physical aggression
比如打架 推攘 而是言语暴力 like more fights or pushing but verbal aggression
比如嘲弄 讥讽这样 taunting and teasing things like that
因此这是有长期影响的 So it did have some effect longer term
他们没有研究两周以后的影响 And they didn't look past the second week
因此是有长期影响的 so it did have a longer term effect
但是只是言语上 并没有身体上的暴力 but only in terms of kind of verbal aggression and not physical
那么你们从所读到的这篇材料想到了什么？ So what do you guys think then from what you read in the article?
还有从我们刚才说的几个研究中想到了什么？ and the couple of studies we just went over?
你们认为电视暴力会导致攻击性吗？ Do you think the television violence causes aggression?
教授:皮特你说 Prof: And so for Peter
学生:我想问一个 Student: Well I'm just wondering actually
和这个完全相反的问题 something that's the complete opposite
我在想是否有研究证实过 I was wondering if there's ever been a study
看《巴尼和朋友们》的孩子 about people who do kind acts
也会照着电影里那么做吗？ after watching Barney or something?
教授:好的 Prof: Right
学生:我是在想有没有过 Student: I was wondering if there's ever been the opposite study
相反的研究 the opposite side of the coin
教授:好问题 Prof: That's a good question
我不知道是否有人做过这样的研究 I don't know, I don't know that anybody's done it quite like that
我的想法是这是会有影响的 My guess is that it would have an effect
我们知道 让孩子拥有积极的心境会导致...... we know that putting kids in a positive mood leads to...
比如如果你让人们想一些高兴的故事 like if you just have them think about happy stories
然后给他们一个机会捐款 and then you've had people like give them a chance
给有需要的孩子 to donate money to a kid who needs it
他们甚至会更愿意帮忙打扫清洁 or to even be more quick to clean up
因此给孩子一个积极的情绪 So putting them in a positive mood
可以让他们更倾向于帮忙 makes them kind of be more helpful
或者某种程度上更听话 and more compliant in ways
我不知道人们是否对《巴尼和朋友们》 I don't know if studies have done that with kind of Barney
或类似的做过调研 or something like that
但是我想应该是有的 But I would expect that they do yeah
我们知道 And we do know that
有一个关于《超级战队》的研究 I mean there was a study with Power Rangers in particular
研究对孩子产生的负面影响 that had kind of the negative effects on kids
《超级战队》是一个很暴力的卡通片 Like a cartoon Power Rangers a very violent cartoon
会产生负面影响 had negative effects
我们也知道《芝麻街》是对小孩有良好影响的 We also know that Sesame Street in fact is a good thing for kids
他们会学到更多知识 that they learn more
并不是说会更听话或更帮忙 Not necessarily get more compliant or becoming helpful
但是如果要学一点字母表的话 but in terms of learning their A B's and C's
《芝麻街》还是不错的 Sesame Street is good
其他的一些想法 Other thoughts
为什么暴力电视...... Why is television violence...
这是有因果关系的吗？ Is it causal?
它会导致我们在孩子身上 Do we think it's causing some of the violence
看到的一些攻击性吗？ that we see in kids or aggression
教授:请说 Prof: Yeah
学生:我想是有因果关系的 Student: yeah I definitely think it is
人们学习的一种方法 You know, one of the ways like people learn
就是模仿人家的行为 is by modelling the behaviour of others
如果你经常遭到暴力刺激因子的轮番轰炸 So if you're constantly bombarded with like violent stimuli
我是说你就会记录 I mean, you know, you're recording
你大脑就会进行识别或对此有反应 that's what you're brain's going to recognise or respond to
教授:好 你叫什么名字 Prof: OK your name
学生:德米特里 Student: Dmitri
教授: 德米特里说 如果你看见了 Prof: Dmitri says well sure if you see it
如果把那个看成榜样 If that's being modelled
你就会更容易受影响 自己付诸实践 then you're being more likely to take it on and do it yourself
电视上很多的暴力并不是戏剧化的 So there's a lot of violence that isn't in kind of dramatization
而是相当真实的 But rather real violence that's put on TV
那会有相似的影响吗？ Do we think that has a similar impact?
有没有关于那个的想法？ thoughts on that as other things?
很多人都在提的一个相关的观点是 a related point is, which is what a lot of people say
孩子们看了很多电视 Well kids that are watching a lot of TV
很多电视都参杂有暴力 and a lot of TV with violence
那么什么是他们不会做的事 What are they not doing you know
如果他们每晚都看暴力电影或别的 When they're watching, you know
那么他们不会做的是什么 violent movies each night or something like that
不管多么正面 他们都不会看的节目是什么 Even what more positive shows are they not watching
或者他们不会和同伴玩的游戏是什么 And or what kind of playing with other kids are they not doing
当然 当谈到电视游戏的时候 And this certainly when it comes to video games
人们会有很激烈的讨论 a strong argument that people make
比如 人们担心孩子玩暴力电子游戏 like violent video you know people are worried about kids
我们知道孩子可以只通过和彼此相处 We know kids learn a lot of social skills
就学到为人处世之道 like how to get along with each other
学到很多社交技巧 by actually just having to get along with each other
我想孩子们是通过实践 I think kids just kind of learn it
发掘 学到相关技巧 work it out and learn skills as they do so
因此如果他们整天下午都玩暴力游戏 And so if they're playing violent video games all afternoon
或者就是玩游戏 or any video games all afternoon
就应该引起大人们的注意了 there might be a concern about that
是的 这是 阿尔波特·班杜拉的观点 Yeah that's Albert Bandura
这是一些很著名的心理学研究 Those are kind of some famous psychological studies
回答了 德米特里关于模仿的问题 which goes back to Dmitri's point about modelling
有一个叫做波波娃娃的研究 Which is yeah they're called Bobo doll studies
在研究中会看一个视频 where there's you, kind of you see a video
视频中一个小孩在打波波娃娃 of a kid beating up on a Bobo doll
然后孩子一个人被留在房间里 And then, you know, then the kid if left alone in the room
这样他们就更可能对另一个玩伴更具有攻击性 is more likely to become aggressive with another kid, the play partner
玩娃娃的方式也会更具攻击性 and to play, kind of aggressively with the toys
学生:如果他们是看到成年人打玩偶 Student: They have them watch adults, you know, beat up on the doll
他们看到成年人怎么做的 就模仿他们 so they were modelling adults watching what they do
他们并不是看其他孩子打玩偶 They weren't watching other kids beat up the doll
是看成年人打 they were watching adults go in
教授:是的 实际上他们还做了 Prof: Yeah and they had, they actually had it where
他们要么会被惩罚 要么不会得到惩罚 they were either punished or not punished as well
因此如果他们看到有人 So that in fact if it was shown that the person
因为打玩偶而被惩罚 was punished for beating up on the doll
实际上这样引起的攻击性就要低一些 that in fact that lead to lower levels of kind of aggressiveness
因此如果被奖励了实际上是件好事 So it can be a good thing if it's rewarded
实际上批评黄金档的人说 And that's actually people who criticize primetime TV
电视上的暴力 say that that's one of the biggest problems
最严重的问题是 is that the violence on TV, or one of the problems
你只看见了暴力 is that it's not, you see the violence
但你并没有看见暴力的结果 but you don't see the consequences of the violence
你并没有看到实施暴力的人被惩罚了 You don't see the person who committed the violence get punished
可以想想《法律与秩序》剧集 You think of Law and Order
每一集的犯罪过程都发展得很快 you know, moves very quickly through the whole thing
实际上你并没有看到其中的暴力动作 You see a quick, well actually you don't even see the violent act involved
只能能看见爆破 尸体什么的 You see the break, you see the kind of the body or something like that
但是 你想想黄金档电视剧 But in any case you see, you know
任何情况下 if you think of a lot of primetime shows
你也许会听见枪声 You might see the gunshot
但是你并没有看见人开枪 but you don't see
其一 你没有看到受害人所受到的伤害 Well for one you don't see the harm caused to the victim
而没有看到被送到医院 流血 you know, taking them to the hospital, the blood
或者家人崩溃之类的 and stuff like family stressed out
因此这就是人们指出的一点 So that's one thing people point to
但是就像我说的 But then like I was saying as well
你会选择性地不去看结果 you tend to not see kind of the consequences
不去看暴力行凶者的整个后果 or the full consequences to the perpetrator of the violence
比如那些开枪打伤人的 going to prison or whatever the kind of outcomes are
要坐牢或者其他的后果 for people who shoot people
不去看那些后果有多么可怕 and how awful that is
我们想到电视暴力时 想到的另一点是 Another thing that when we think about TV violence
我们经常想的 经常谈论到的是 we often think about and as we've been talking about
这是一个直接结果吗？ Is it a direct effect ?
孩子是否学到了一些直接的榜样行为 Was there direct modelling that the kid learned
然后突然间就会产生某种行为 and all of a sudden they're going out and doing this behaviour
但是至少有一个研究 But there's at least one study too
指出了存在非直接影响 that suggests an indirect effect
我想这个研究可能更多地解释了为什么 And I think this study may say more about why
电视暴力会对社会产生的影响 TV violence maybe has an effect on a society
会比给小孩带来的影响更直接 than direct effects on kids does
研究中 他们选了一些四年级左右的孩子 And that is they took, these are with kids like fourth-grade kids
让他们看 还是不看暴力电视？ and have them watch like violent TV or not
我忘了他们看的是什么了 I forget what they watched
然后他们被分成两组 But put them in the two groups
然后他们被告知...... but then they had, then they were told...
隔壁房间有学前班的小孩子在玩 Oh there's a pre-schooler in the other room playing
我想要你照顾一下那个孩子 And I want you to watch this kid
我现在要出去一会 I've gotta run out of the room right now
你来看着监控器 but watch on the monitor here
如果发生了什么事 And if anything unusual happens
来另一个房间找我就是了 come and get me I'll be in the other room
他们发现看了暴力电视的孩子 Well they found that the kids who had watched the violent TV...
他们实际看的是一个视频 Oh so they're watching a video
但他们认为自己看的 they think they're watching
是另一个房间里孩子的实时监控 a live monitor of the kid in the other room
然后过了几分钟 在那个监控画面中 And in that monitor you see over a progression of minutes
这些玩闹的孩子开始抢玩具 you know these kids playing and it starts with grabbing a toy
然后开始喊叫 互相推攘 and a little bit later they're kind of yelling, and then pushing at each other
然后就开始变得粗暴 开始有肢体接触了 And before, you know, they're kind of into rough and tumble a little bit
他们发现看了暴力电视的孩子 And what they found is that the kids who had watched the violent TV
比没看的孩子 去找调研员的速度要慢些 were slower to go get the experimenter than kids who hadn't
因此就证明了他们对暴力不那么敏感了 So they were kind of desensitized in a sense to the violence
尽管那是针对四年级学生的研究 And even though that study used fourth-graders
我认为这对社会中成年人也是有影响的 You know I think it has implications maybe for adults in a society
我们成年人对电视上一些程度的暴力习以为常 You know we're used to seeing a certain level of violence on TV
以及对电视上 and a certain level of kind of bad
一些孩子之间的爆粗口习以为常 kind of verbal behaviour between kids on TV
也许我们就有点麻木了 maybe we've become a little bit immune
也就不会很及时意识到要让孩子远离这些 And a little more slack in letting kids get away with it
因此这就是电视暴力 So you know that's kind of an indirect effect
可能对孩子产生的非直接影响 of TV violence on how kids might turn out
我们就在这里结束 星期一来小测验 let's stop there and we'll come back with the quiz on Monday